Europe Must Act Tough on Climate Change
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research | January 2010
According to the latest scientific research, the climate is warming more rapidly than previously anticipated, not least because the oceans are progressively losing their ability to absorb CO2. The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) warns that controlling costs for climate change will be possible only until 2020. After that date, global warming will have passed a tipping point where ambitious decarbonisation projects will no longer be able to prevent the initiation of irreversible climate changes, which will result in much higher costs.
In order to prevent such a scenario, it is necessary – and according to the PIK study technically feasible – to stabilize CO2 emissions at 450 ppm (parts per million) in the first half of the 21st century. This would permit restricting global warming to two degrees Celsius. Costs for such a stabilization program would tally at around 0.1% to 1.4% of global GDP. While today’s CO2 emissions hover at around 385 ppm, they are expected to double by the end of the century, if drastic measures are not taken in a timely fashion. This would lead to global warming of up to seven degrees Celsius, with devastating effects on human settlements and ecological systems worldwide. In order to forestall such a development, it will be necessary to invest 1.2 trillion dollars in mitigation technologies, mostly in renewable energies, CCS, and nuclear power by 2050. Moreover, investments in existing coal power plants have to be stopped immediately, lest built-in economic interests sabotage efforts to control climate change. The point is to tie CO2 emissions internationally to the costs they occasion. In many developing countries this will not be a viable option in the near future, but nonetheless efforts should be undertaken to integrate them in a step-by-step fashion in an international caps-and-trade system.
Europe on the other hand cannot afford to wait. Now is the time to draw up a binding climate action plan aiming at the complete decarbonization of energy and industry (in particular steel and cement production), and the greatest possible reductions in emissions in transportation and agriculture. The swift institution of a legislative framework is needed to make decarbonization projects attractive for private investors as well. Any delays will only raise costs: While it may be possible to rein in global warming at two degrees Celsius, the associated costs will rise by 46% if one waits with instituting stabilization measures until after 2020. Should the international community defer action until 2030 the chance for achieving stabilization at 450 ppm will have been forfeited forever.
This summary was prepared by the Atlantic Community Editorial Team from "Climate Change: Need to Act by 2020," published here by the Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
