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Robert D. Kaplan on When North Korea Falls

North Korean nuclear tests are symptoms of an unheralded threat: not the exertion of North Korean strength, but the prospective collapse of Kim Jong Il’s government. Weakness in Pyongyang could result in desperation, a WMD attack on the South, or full-on military engagement with Seoul. Drawing on this possibility of collapse, Robert D. Kaplan discusses opportunities for:

1. Reconstruction and peacekeeping among the US, China, UN, and greater Asia,
2. Reunification and spheres of influence, under either a US democratic or Chinese “buffer state” model,
3. Reconciliation of tensions with Japan and Russia.