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What happened in Georgia and what is going on there at the moment will have irreversible consequences for the entire system of international relations. These consequences will be as global as those after terrorist attacks on US on 11th September 2001. The moment Russia attacked Georgia things went too far to be taken back and it is impossible to restore the previous status quo in the global politics. Russian invasion in Transcaucasia may end only with a reshuffle in international relations. We are witnessing a restoration of the Cold War atmosphere when superpowers ignore sovereignty of smaller states.

It is very telling that Russian Federation has announced its plan for reform of the collective security system in the Northern Hemisphere for September 2008, under which NATO is suggested to establish a superstructure called EATO - European-Atlantic Treaty Organization. Until recently, it was not fully clear what it was supposed to look like...

The events in Georgia provide an explanation as to how exactly Russia sees the "reform" of the world's security system. According to this vision, there must be zones of geopolitical influence in the world, or rather zones of military and political responsibility of the so-called "world leaders". This is the meaning of Russia's well-known concept of the "multi-polar world".

Russia wants to have its own separate area of responsibility, which would embrace all former USSR territories except the Baltic States which already got incorporated into Western structures. Russia is demonstrating now that the former Soviet territory is its "inner courtyard", an informal zone of its "interests" its citizens being what Russia calls "Russian-speaking population" or simply - whether willful or not - agents of Russian influence. This is a perception of the so called "Russian World". Whatever Russia does, nobody should care including US, NATO, European Union, PACE and OSCE.

Even the assumptions of today's Kremlin leadership on the way the world should be arranged are an immense challenge and risk for Ukraine. And if the Russia's "vision" is implemented, Ukraine will find itself in a rather humiliating situation.

Ukraine's position in the Russian-Georgian conflict is very uncomfortable as Ukraine is interested in preserving good neighborly relations with both Georgia and Russia. Ukraine should not take the side of Georgia or Russia. What we have to do, however, is to take the side of the whole world that demands ceasefire and preserving territorial integrity of Georgia.

In such a situation, the ideal strategy for Ukraine could be participation in organization of the peacekeeping mission. Russia's preventive statements on Ukrainian weapon supply to Georgia, however, have practically disabled Ukraine's mediator functions in the conflict. Russia has neutralized Ukraine's peacekeeping potential - the largest resource that we had in this conflict. This kind of diplomatic strategy on part of Russia unambiguously proves that the goal of the Caucasus invasion is not only to hit Georgia, but Ukraine as well.

The issue of Ukraine's joining the NATO accession plan at the meeting of foreign ministers in December this year or at the Berlin jubilee summit of NATO in April 2009 is only a detail in the global situation. NATO itself is under attack here.

If Ukraine raises its NATO membership issue directly, most probable answer will be: we need to think it over. Rather than thinking about Ukraine, though, they will think about changing the whole strategic concept of NATO. In my opinion, however, Ukraine's accession to NATO, or perhaps another security system that would be created on the basis of NATO , is inevitable in the historical perspective.

If Russia's goal in its Georgian war is to prevent Georgia and Ukraine from joining the NATO by intimidating its European allies (primarily Germany), this may cause an asymmetric response - a bilateral Ukrainian-American military and political cooperation, which would not fit into Russia's picture of the world at all... It would be like the new bilateral Polish-American cooperation.

In general, the state policy of Ukraine with regard to the Caucasus conflict is rather responsible and professional. Unprofessional, irresponsible and threatening are political games going on in Ukraine at the moment. The Caucasus crisis is the last warning to Ukrainian politicians, both parliamentary majority and the minority factions. This is an aptitude test...

Volodymyr Horbach is a political analyst at the Institute for Euroatlantic Cooperation in Kiev.

Related materials from the Atlantic Community:

• Marek Swierczynski: Russian Belligerence Will Strengthen Transatlantic Relations
• Wess Mitchell: How America Should Respond to Resurgent Russia
• Richard Holbrooke and Ronald D. Asmus: Only Transatlantic Unity Can Stop This War