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April 3, 2008 |  5 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

Stanley R. Sloan

A Grand Plan for NATO Will Have to Wait

Stanley R. Sloan: Besides agreeing on devoting more military and non-military resources to the mission in Afghanistan, NATO leaders at the Bucharest Summit should start drafting a new strategic concept and a contemporary Atlantic Charter for the new American administration to tackle in 2009.

As the NATO countries take part in the last alliance summit of George Bush's presidency, from April 2-4 in Bucharest, there is widespread recognition that the alliance needs reinforcement. On the practical level, the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan needs more men and equipment, particularly helicopters, to block resurgence of the Taliban. On the strategic level, the alliance's 1999 concept of its role and operations is in dire need of updating to reflect new realities in the wake of 9/11 and NATO's subsequent mission in Afghanistan. On the political level, new life needs to be pumped into the alliance's veins, to convince skeptical commentators, publics and parliaments that the transatlantic bargain is still a viable and valuable deal.

Hopefully, new commitments to the alliance mission in Afghanistan will emerge from Bucharest. None of the allies will want to celebrate NATO's 60th anniversary in 2009 by acknowledging that it is incapable of handling the Afghanistan mission.

However, the commitment to prepare a fresh strategic concept along with a new "Atlantic Charter," as advocated by NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, may have to wait. As good an idea as it is, the reality of the American election schedule will enforce a delay. Do the European allies really want to take the chance of handing off a drafting process begun under President George Bush to a new American administration led by Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton? There could not be a more awkward way for the allies to greet the next US administration.

Preparation of revised strategy and a new charter for NATO are highly political tasks, not appropriately left to a lame duck administration. This would be the proper perspective for the allies to take, even if one were betting that the Republican nominee will succeed President Bush.

In these circumstances, what should the European allies do? First, they should go along with the Bush administration's desire to invite Albania, Croatia, and Macedonia to join the alliance. These countries will not add significantly to the capabilities of the alliance, but their membership would be another important step in NATO's mission of helping tie up the loose ends left at the end of the Cold War. This step surely could be seen as the last major contribution of the Bush administration to the process of making Europe "whole and free," a process begun by his father's administration nearly two decades ago.

The administration's desire to put Georgia and Ukraine on track for membership is, not unreasonably, opposed by several European governments. The populations of the two countries are not yet sufficiently convinced of the wisdom of NATO membership to support giving their governments "Membership Action Plans." The fact that Russia opposes the move is the major concern for some European allies, but should not be the reason for delaying the first step toward membership for Georgia and Ukraine - they simply are not ready. Their time will come.

With regard to the future of the alliance, NATO leaders at Bucharest should support the goal of preparing a new strategic concept and a contemporary Atlantic Charter. They should even make it clear that the new declarations would have to tackle not only traditional security issues but also the "new" question of energy security and electronic warfare against NATO countries. The drafting project, however, should be left on the table for the allies, in concert with a new American administration, to tackle in 2009.

In the meantime, both the United States and the European allies need to devote more military and non-military resources to the mission in Afghanistan. Recent reports about the failure of the international community, including the United States, to deliver promised aid to Afghanistan are unfortunately not a surprise. American priorities have focused on Iraq, leaving Afghanistan as the step-child to Iraqi military and non-military requirements.

The fact that the United States has appeared to care less about the stabilization of Afghanistan has taken the Europeans off the hook. After all, if Afghanistan is not important to the United States, how can European countries make the critical difference? The recent decision by US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates to dispatch some 3200 marines to Afghanistan is the kind of leadership by example that perhaps will help bring allies along.

The renovation and political revitalization of NATO should be high on the agenda of the next American administration. Senators Obama, Clinton and McCain all say it will be if they are elected. In the meantime, perhaps French President Sarkozy, during France's EU presidency in the second half of this year, will set the transatlantic table by laying out a realistic plan for bringing France back into full participation in NATO and overcoming problems that have hampered NATO-EU cooperation in the past. We all can hope.

Stanley R. Sloan teaches transatlantic relations at Middlebury, College, Vermont, and is director of the Atlantic Community Initiative. (This NGO should not be confused with the Atlantic Initiative, which is the publisher of atlantic-community.org.)

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ilyas m mohsin

April 3, 2008

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Mr. Sloan has suggested that NATO should stay put till the new US Administration takes over. On a practical level, it makes all the sense. The Bush Administration has already damaged its country’ goodwill/ image the world over, more so among the Muslim countries. Rash policies like in Iraq, Afghanistan, Gitmo, Abu Ghuraib, Bagram Base-jail etc would remain indefensible for the ‘good guys’. The people killed/ maimed and uprooted in all such misadventures will invite revenge unless amends are made with unqualified apologies to the victim countries/ institutions.
Such atrocities would, generally, haunt those who perpetrated the same. Already there is a very high percentage of suicides among the US forces deployed in Iraq. It is very likely that ‘Vietnam syndrome’ may appear to be a bout of bad-cold compared with what may be coming as the aftermath of the Muslim blood spilled by the forces on the orders of the Administration. The Muslims still are prepared to develop a modus vivendi despite the ghost-wars launched against them by the neo-cons in the post 9/11 world. Funnily, with all the worst kinds of weapons at its disposal backed up by the latest technology, the US has not been able to locate OBL etc and get them tried by UN. .
 
Unregistered User

April 3, 2008

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Although I agree with many of your comments (especially the need to address Afghanistan), you get it wrong in one important respect. In Georgia, there is overwhelming support for NATO, with more than 70% favouring integration. This has been shown both by a recent referendum and is also backed up by extensive surveys which our organization has undertaken, indicating that this view is shared by many who presumably did not vote.

 
Unregistered User

April 3, 2008

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I stand correct on lumping Georgia together with Ukraine on the public opinion issue. I certainly am convinced of the sincerity of Georia's government in pursuing membership. There clearly are other reasons for caution on Georgia, but my bottom line is that both Georgie and Ukraine deserve the opportunity to join, and that we should not allow Russia's concerns to prevent them from so doing. This still leads me to conclude that a cautious approach is warranted, in part to help prepare the Russians for what will eventually happen and to build consensus in the alliance about the timing.
 
Donald  Stadler

April 3, 2008

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"The fact that the United States has appeared to care less about the stabilization of Afghanistan has taken the Europeans off the hook. After all, if Afghanistan is not important to the United States, how can European countries make the critical difference? The recent decision by US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates to dispatch some 3200 marines to Afghanistan is the kind of leadership by example that perhaps will help bring allies along."

Ummm, perhaps not. Arguably the dispatch of 3200 US marines to Afghanistan has been what actually took the European's off the hook. Much-needed reinforcements came from where they usually come from. The list of suspects is small. US, UK, Canada, Poland & other EE members, perhaps Nederlands and Norway also.

Some prominent NATO members are invaribly absent from that list and this won't change in the forseeable future. They play the delay game until Uncle Sam breaks down and sends the necessary reinforcements. The problem is that they really seem to believe that Americans are too stupid to see through their BS games and so there will never be consequences. Americans aren't that stupid, we do see - and there WILL be consequences.

The one bright spot is that France is sending new troop, or so it appears. We'll have to see what the conditions are for their deployment before judging how much use that deployment will be.
 
Unregistered User

April 8, 2008

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And if the suicide rate among returning US veterans from Iraq and Afghanistan is less than the rate for the general population among the 20-29 years olds that CBS usesd what then? In fact when adjusted for age and gender the rate of suicides among returning veterans(18.74 per 100,000), of which a large percentage did not serve in the Middle East is not only less that of the same cohort(20.9 per 100,000) of nonveterans in the US but almost half that of France, 2.0 per 100,000 less than Germany, and almost 1/4 that of Russia and Japan. And those nations I can say with a great deal of confidence do not have headlines bemoaning the increased rate of suicides among its returning veterans because aside from France none have troops in either Iraq or Afghanistan.

This new Pax Americana will be without the help of Middle Europe and as such they should not expect to gain but will actually lose influence because as even Osama bin Laden pointed out the people follow the guy on the strong horse. One caveat I would like to add is that I still hold out confidence that France, obviously acting in its own interests, will still see that having the ability to confront and kill its enemies throughout the world will be of more use than either a supposed surrender to the US or standing in continual opposition. I think soon that Germany will discover to it horror that it has given its weight in world affairs to to nuclear subs and possibly two nuclear carriers in Brest and Toulon. All courtesy of NATO and to the relief of the US when it realizes that the French are serious if disagreeable.

 

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