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December 21, 2009

Greg Randolph Lawson, Personal, Platinum Contributor (225)

Afghanistan is the crucible through which we will learn if NATO can be anything more than a European security mechanism.

Thus far, NATO's efforts out of the region have not lived up to anyone's expectations. This is probably due to the very fact that NATO's raison d' etre largely ended with the Cold War, though, in the 90s, it had a residual role in helping bring former Warsaw Pact nations in from the cold and, today, has a role in keeping a power vaccum in the east from emerging that might prove too tempting for a revanchist Russia.

The attempt to instill in NATO something larger, for global stability, has been heroic, but if it fails to achieve even a marginal improvement on the ground in Afghanistan, it will become fully obvious that NATO can only act on intra-European issues.

I suspect NATO will be a talking committee for issues external to Europe, though it will still maintain the latent capacity to be decisive for conflict in Europe itself. However, if the ISAF goals are met (and not watered down for PR purposes), then, we may be witnessing something more substantial.

December 22, 2009

Hans Reuther-Fix

The baton passed on, banners exchanged, a salute to the respect and honor
of fellow soldiers and the dimension of a new command responsibility
is recognized, a responsibility to train 97000 police and 143000 security forces by ISAF/ NATO Forces under British Command.
The question to be communicated whether command language is in
English or Pashto.
Pashto is the Iranian language of the Pathan people, which is also the
chief vernacular of eastern Afghanistan and adjacent parts of Pakistan.
Mr. Karzai must certainly have a favorable opinion over his Pashto language.

But then what.........

Washington Americans opine that modern America shows similar dimensions when compared to " The Roman Empire".
Unfortunately they seem not to differentiate between the " Holy Roman Empire" and the" Byzantine Empire", the successor state to the Roman Empire, also called Eastern Roman Empire with its capital Constantinople.
In 395 the division of the Empire into East and West became permanent.
After the fall of Rome (476) the Eastern Emporers claimed succession the the entire Roman World.

Orthodox Chrisitanity has its roots in Constantinople, but todays Turkey
finds its orientation in the religion of Islam, from Istanbul through Anatolia
to Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and further on.
The last of the five duties of every Moslem is the pilgrimage to Mecca, the
Hajj. This last provision has made the pilgrimage the greatest pilgrimage in the world and a great unifying force in Islam.------------

It seems that many of the ISAF forces are quite aware that their
presence in Afghanistan is not so much of a military nature, rather feel like puppets playing in a rather confusing game of political objectives.

France, by putting a military base, although quite limited, into the UAE
seems to be knowledgeable of some of these objectives.

America has the biggest embassy outside the US in Iraq, further
the USAF has the biggest base of the region in Iraq, while the Oil States
of the region are saturated with military hardware, supported by the
most powerful US naval concentration in the region.

Further up in Europe, US forward bases can now be found in Bulgaria,
Georgia and Romania, besides the Baltics.

At the end, a small enclave of Judaism is facing these vast territories of Islam, a chapter hopefully not to be completed by Iran with the help of China and Russia.

December 22, 2009

E. Nakano, , Bronze Contributor (11)

Considering the dispersal of manpower and resources amongst participating countries thus far, it's hardly surprising that the majority of trainers and mentors are from the U.S. I suspect the situation will remain as such indefinitely. Even if prolonged, steady progress toward the approved benchmarks is demonstrated - which ISAF partners will need evidence of in order to increase their contributions, because otherwise they have no incentive to do so - I doubt the disparity will be significantly narrowed.

December 27, 2009

Ari Rusila, Freelancer, Platinum Contributor (349)

The US Army Field manual (2006) emphasises the importance of “troop density”, or the ratio of security forces to inhabitants: “20 counter-insurgents per 1,000 residents (or 1:50) is often considered the minimum troop density required for effective Coin operations”.

The CIA estimates Afghanistan’s population, as of July 2009, to be roughly 28.4 million. Thus, going by the 1:50 ratio, the size of the US-led coalition force would need to be approximately 568,000 troops. Even adding in the 97,000 Afghan police officers and the 100,000-odd Afghan soldiers leaves the NATO-led force more than 200,000 counter-insurgents short of the “minimum”.

Mehdi Hassan gives even more pessimistic view over Coin numbers game in his article “Two sides of the Coin” (http://www.newstatesman.com/asia/2009/11/mehdi-hasan-afghanistan-co...). He claims that the Afghan National Army is plagued by desertion: 10,000 recruits have disappeared in recent months. Soldiers are under-equipped and underpaid; some 15 per cent of them are thought to be drug addicts. Dominated by Tajik troops from the north of the country, the “national” army has little or no credibility in the southern, Pashtun areas of Afghanistan, where the Taliban mainly operate, and from where they draw ethnic support.

It is estimated that in Afghanistan there is some 100 al Qaeda fighters. So with an estimated yearly cost of $30 billion this means that for every one al Qaeda fighter, the U.S. will commit 1,000 troops and $300 million a year. However in country is blossoming grass roots movement practicing good governance and accountability at local levels. The problem for occupying forces is that this governance is the Taliban. Seems that the US Afghan operation is planed against this local governance not against al Qaeda like told in US PR materials. From my point of view this fight against terrorism should be fought in Pakistan not in Afghanistan.

I would like to remain about statement (http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-onli...) which the Taliban wrote in a statement emailed to news organizations that they have “no agenda of meddling in the internal affairs of other countries and is ready to give legal guarantee if the foreign forces withdraw from Afghanistan,”

Sun Tzu wrote in The Art of War following: “Strategy without tactics is the slow road to victory, but tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” I agree and would add that if there is no vision about endgame one does not even know is the road leading to victory or defeat. More over issue one may find from my article "Will COIN work in Afghanistan?" - http://arirusila.wordpress.com/2009/12/11/will-coin-work-in-afghani...

December 29, 2009

Bernhard Lucke, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Platinum Contributor (332)

Dear Ari Rusila,

excellent comment, little to add. I'm sure that what we now see in Afghanistan is the noise of defeat. Let's discuss this in this forum again in 10 years. I bet that then all those who now unconditionally support the military escalation will claim they always knew this war can't be won militarily.

Unfortunaltely, for defeat always a price has to be paid, and I'm afraid Afghanistan is pretty expensive...