The Putin-Medvedev tandem celebrates a small but important victory in the energy war, just days before the two trade places in the Kremlin-Gazprom conglomerate of power that does not bother to hide the ambition to help Russia regain importance in Europe and far beyond. Greece was the last missing link in the project aimed at bypassing the main East-West land corridor occupied by not-so-much Putin admirers such as the Baltic States, Poland, and Ukraine. The new pipeline, like the twin-project called Nord Stream under the Baltic Sea, will go under the Black Sea straight to Russia's old buddy Bulgaria and fork in two: to feed Western Balkans, Austria, and the north of Italy through Romania and Hungary and the south of the boot right through to Greece. Now Gazprom virtually has Europe in its pliers.
Some commentators rushed to conclude that Gazprom's victory on the southern flank derails the EU-US sponsored Nabucco project as two pipelines linking similar regions businesswise, make no sense. Clearly, Russia is ahead of the European project in terms of agreements signed. Clearly, Nabucco is more complicated, links more countries, and uses more difficult deposits, including ones in Iran. But the sheer fact of the Greco-Russian deal could act as a wake up call for Western Europe, showing clearly on the map the vice in which Europe may one day find itself, with no influence on how strongly it could be squeezed. With Nord Stream and South Stream running, Russia could hold Western Europe captive and Eastern Europe to their knees, as the Yamal pipeline will no longer be crucial to maintain. Now this vision becomes only too apparent. It's time for Europe to wipe its glasses clean, see the danger, and act. The next EU presidency of France will be tested upon it.
Meanwhile, more bad news came from the US. During his visit there, the Polish deputy PM Waldemar Pawlak tried to win the US government's support for gas and oil investments aimed at diluting Russia's dominance in these markets. Apparently, as it emerged after his talks with the American energy secretary, he did not succeed. The US is adamant that businesses should be decided upon by business people, not governments and any investments should first be discussed by interested companies and seek official endorsement later. It's too early to judge whether this is a signal of further cooling down of the Polish-American relations. Most probably, the US government fell into "election freeze" and does not want to open new fronts until it's clear who the next president will be and what policies toward Russia he or she shall adopt. In any case, Poland's energy diversification attempts will now become more difficult.
Marek Swierczynski is a journalist with a special interest in defence and security matters and and a member of the Polish Euro-Atlantic Society.
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May 2, 2008
Lukas Vitalijus, Institute for European Studies, University of British Columbia, Silver Contributor (54)
Certainly, the fears that Russia might decide to shut down gas and oil pipes if relations would worsen (although they are pretty down already despite official rhetorics) are very much in countries like Poland or Lithuania. But to suggest that this would prove a sound strategy in the long term is questionable. After all, Europe is and will very much remain Gazprom's main and major market (and the source of money which Russia needs if it is about to be back in the world politics). Europeans should be very pleased to have a worlds largest gas reserves in its neighborhood, the question is how reliable the partnership and how long will it last.
Perhaps, pan-European EU driven energy strategy is not the best solution (as the most recent examples between Greece and Gazprom demonstrates Russians prefer to make bilateral deals anyways) but national solos are not helpful either.
Last but not least, Russian natural resources will run out one day but while it happens (and it could take quite a while) Europe should invest way more than it does now in alternative sources of energy.
It's time for Europe to wipe its glasses clean!