Here is a list of factors that might seriously impede China's rise:
The price of oil: As a recent Stratfor piece explained, service-based economies like those of the West are actually relatively impervious to the rise of oil prices. Those who will suffer most if this rise continues are actually highly industrialized countries, such as China. So it turns out, there might not be that much to China's boom and the country's future might not be quite as promising as it may seem.
Separatism: Tibet has become atypical example, but in fact the Xinjiang region and its Uighur population might be China's real nightmare.
Social inequalities: There are currently hundreds of thousands of formerly rural workers literally floating around and within China's main urban powerhouses. Add to this the fact that those who've decided to remain in the country aren't necessarily better off or more satisfied with their situation, and you get a pretty explosive mix, especially given that China is no stranger to civil wars.
Lack of freedom and of more menial liberties: Though I am among those who argue that since the end of the Tiananmen movement in 1989, Chinese citizens have been far more focused on improving their life standards little by little than on overthrowing their government, I've got to admit I'm not sure exactly how the Chinese Communist Party intends to manage its -ultimate- fall (though I've hinted they might manage, here).
Regional instability: What will China do the day North Korea collapses, or the day Pakistan and India fight again? How will the Chinese face these earthquakes at their borders?
Balance of power: It has been argued that China is too smart to let enemies surround it. This is why -it is said- Chinese leaders have engaged their neighbors with free trade agreements and injected loads of cash into the country's most Westward provinces. "China's prosperity will be your prosperity" -its leaders seem to be saying to those countries that might otherwise fear such a boom.
But it seems to me that there is a limit as to how much any given country can be reassured and/or bribed. At one point or another, some countries will either grow too powerful to be petty vassals (India?), see better opportunities elsewhere (Burma? the Philippines? Mongolia?), or just dislike the spread of the "Chinese way".
These are just a few of the many hurdles that might one day impede China's ultimate rise (a rapidly aging population could be another one). Note that these are the kind of hurdles faced by a range of other countries as well, and that my purpose is not to "wish" any of them to China.
My point is rather the following: in the 1980s, we feared Japan (to the point that a book title such as The Coming War With Japan was shock to no-one); today, we "fear" China. We were wrong to fear Japan; so I think we should ask ourselves: are we wrong to fear China?
Andrew Bishop is a graduate student of European politics. He is also an active blogger and commentator on international affairs. Read more of his work at his blog WhatYouMustRead
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May 21, 2008
Donald Stadler, Self-employed, Platinum Contributor (401)
The Chinese thenselves seem to see this, as the piece about hwo many are turning to internal consumers to fuel further growth. I think they will ultimately find that sweated labor makes a poor market.
I thinjk they have two options - to go upmarket or to seek to serve internal markets. Going upmarket can be politically perilous, as that will require masses of highly educated/skilled workers, and these have a way of insisting upon political rights and freedoms not currently offered. I think if China goes that route they may wind up facing a similar situation to that Germany did a century ago - and that ended in WWI and tears.
Perhaps producing mass goods for the domestic market will allow them to put off the crisis for another decade - because there is a mass market right now despite low wages in much of the Chinese economy. But high prices for oil and other materials threaten even that - the market is there but can it be profitable with high resource costs? Or will chinese labor need to be sweated even harder than it is now, shrinking the domestic market and raising political pressures?