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Europe is in a fever: never before has a US presidential election been followed this closely. The attention of the media is high and "public viewings" of Super-Tuesday 1 and 2 were widespread. Yes, the race is exciting! But this is only half of the truth: Europeans just cannot wait to see Bush go and hope for a significant improvement of transatlantic relations in the spring 2009.

But transatlantic relations will never return to what they used to be during the Cold War. This is the dire message of the panel discussion "America before the Elections - Opportunities and Perspectives of Transatlantic Relations" at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).

The panelists were:

• Charles Kupchan, Professor of international relations in the School of Foreign Service and Government Department at Georgetown University,
• Hans-Ulrich Klose, member of the German parliament for the Social Democratic Party and deputy chairman of the foreign relations committee,
• Josef Braml, Editor-in-Chief "Jahrbuch Internationale Politik" and Program Officer Transatlantic Relations, DGAP.

The panelists agreed: Transatlantic relations have deteriorated out of structural, not personal reasons.

As Klose points out, the geopolitical landscape has changed in many ways since 1989/90: NATO's common enemy has gone and the United States is now shifting its attention away from Western Europe to other parts of the world.

At the same time the domestic foundations that used to determine American foreign policy have eroded, says Charles Kupchan. The bipartisan compact between moderates of both parties, forged during World War II and guaranteeing America's liberal internationalism ever since, had already ceased to exist during the Clinton era. Today, the country and thus Congress are highly polarized.

Therefore, American foreign policy in the future is likely to be as erratic as before World War II when policy shifted between isolationism, internationalism, and the attempt to build an empire. The US will be turning inward once again and will only rather selectively, and if its vital interests are at stake, engage in global affairs. Expectations should therefore be kept in check. New and old conflicts remain on the agenda.

To understand this, Braml urges us to have a look, not only at the presidential candidates, but also at Congress, the states, and the American people. Congress is powerful in areas such as trade. The states too strongly pursue their interests, e.g. in energy matters. Additionally, the public is deeply unsettled ever since 9/11 and the looming economic crisis. The president will have to respond to these stakeholders in the American policy process, and the response is unlikely to please Europeans. The demands to Europe will grow, regardless of whether the next president is a Republican or a Democrat, and the question is whether it is willing to follow.

Let's take a look at Afghanistan, for instance. Here, Germany in particular is reluctant to meet American demands. In the spring 2009, the election campaign will be underway here and no politician will be willing to act as a warmonger, warns Klose. The principle of solidarity and good transatlantic relations might once again be sacrificed on the altar of domestic and party politics.

So, does this mean there is no hope for good transatlantic relations? Yes, there is! While the Cold War normalcy of reliance on each other cannot be recreated, one important element of transatlantic relations has been resuscitated by the pre-election excitement and "Obamania": the positive gut feeling. The United States proves as fascinating as ever, and not only Klose wishes to be able to cast his vote in the presidential elections.

Annette Pölking and Sijbren de Jong work for the Atlantic Initiative and are editors of the Atlantic Community.