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March 25, 2008 |  2 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

Lukas  Vitalijus

Rethinking the Status Quo

Lukas Vitalijus: The absence of a dominating trend in foreign relations today reveals how complex the world has become since the end of the cold war. With global matters overriding national ones, and priorities in international relations changing faster and more unpredictably than ever before, a single doctrine is no longer able to provide an explanation.

What is the defining issue of our times? Ask Al Gore and he would tell you that it's global climate destabilization. Talk to Bill Gates and you will most likely hear about how technology and Internet are continuing to revolutionize the world. Jeremy Greenstock, UK Ambassador to the UN, on the other hand, believes the defining issue is a shift of relative power around the world.

As we approach the 20th anniversary of the end of the Cold War, it seems appropriate that we reexamine the changes in worldwide status quo. In 1988, the United States and Soviet Union were engaged in protracted long-term conflict that played out via proxy wars around the globe; Internet was a fledgling tool far from the economic big bang story it was to become. In terms of climate change, the only major issue on the agenda was the ozone layer and CFCs, and even this was put forth by a handful of Green parties in Western Europe. If one looks even further in the distant past, international affairs for most part were managed -- or perhaps more appropriately, mismanaged -- by a few pieces on the diplomatic chess board.

Contrast that to today's world, where global and regional actors have been taking on increasingly proactive roles in global affairs. Western and Eastern Europe have come together in a way unthinkable in the late 1980s; China and India are emerging as global economic powerhouses; Iran and North Korea are in the process of acquiring nuclear capabilities and a multitude of international agencies are taking on projects around the world. As far as calamities around the world are concerned, the role of the United Nations to prevent human suffering and injustice has been left in the dust. Even the UN can not be better than its membership, and the more there are of them, the more difficult it is to reach an agreement. The burgeoning complexity in world politics is something that shows no signs of abating.

With all of this to consider, what then is the nature of the status quo in contemporary international relations? In short, we believe, there is no such thing as a status quo.

It is said that hindsight is often 20/20. Events constantly albeit only slightly change things on the ground at any given time. Indeed, short-term happenings are often not seen as key developments until many years later. Therefore, whatever occurs now will have major consequences for the future, being the enlargement of the Europe Union, military confrontation with Iran, or UN reform. Still, this cause and effect way to examining the world is superficial and does little to get at the heart of change. Moreover, it does not put forth a model to explain how or why certain events in the world have unfolded as such.

The status quo referred to in the news media and by politicians is an ever-changing dynamic and complex relationship between the thousands of players in world politics, influenced by millions of individuals around the world. A prominent example of this is the blurring line between domestic and international politics, what some scholars have come to call 'intermestic' politics. There is a certain danger of this sort of box-like thinking. Pundits often argue that the solution to thinking outside the box lies in changing the way we think, but this inevitably ends up with a host of new concrete ideas and concepts.

We argue that it is not the shape of the box but its composition. Why should one operate under the assumption that international relations should be empirically explained and attached to a particular set of ideas? Many would simply say it is convenient. Reforming the UN for instance, would require another set of changes in the future, because existing doctrines simply do not hold water well enough to withstand the test of time. The same can be said for global climate change or the global economic order; both are hallmark examples of the cooperative spirit known by liberalist ideology. Clearly, no single doctrine is suitable for explaining the world as it exists today.

Contemporary international relations are very much like personal relations.
Just as one cannot hold individual relationships and expect to see the same things, he or she can also not assume that the state of the world today is best explained using a single set of ideas. To conclude, it would be noteworthy to recall a famous statement written almost two centuries ago back in 1822 by the British Foreign Secretary at the time George Canning: "Things are getting back to a wholesale state again. Every nation for itself and God for us all".

Lukas Vitalijus holds an MA in European Studies from University of British Columbia. This article was originally published in here in Global Affairs.

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Donald  Stadler

March 26, 2008

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This piece was rather more insightful than the last one in this section: "The last days of George Bush". It makes a genuine effort to write something fresh and insightful, and succeeds I believe. Compliments to the author"

"What is the defining issue of our times? Ask Al Gore and he would tell you that it's global climate destabilization."

I really LIKE that phrase "global climate destabilisation'! 'Global warming' unfortunately is too limiting a cncept. What would happen if sunspot activity continued to decline and a phase of (shudder) global cooling were to commence? Where would that leave Mr Gore's efforts to make himself in an archdruid, not to mention his eco-consultancy venture and his investments in selling clean energy 'Indulgences'?

But 'climate destbilisation has it all covered. Warming. cooling, stay the same - it's all there. As long as the weather varies at all Mr Gore is still in business!

I DO SO enjoy good phrase-making!
 
ilyas m mohsin

March 27, 2008

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It is an intellectual exercise to define the nature and scope of status quo. However, its main focus is on the current ground realities.
George Canning’ quote is the most meaningful reference. Change is the eternal element in the cosmos. Were it not so, US would have remained a British colony like India of yore, China would be subject to all kinds of humiliations of 19th century etc, France would have been the master of Africa etc.
The writer appears to remember cod-war days with nostalgia. US broke the Soviet Union with the help of its allies, perhaps, on justifiable grounds. However, if status quo was allowed to remain, it would have been a bi-polar world.
Human instinct is for dominance, power-grab, and making ‘assurance doubly assured’ about personal/ national security. In pursuit of the realization of such aims at the national/ personal levels, man can make honest mistakes. At times countries make political mistakes, in good faith or otherwise, which boomerang at the International level.
The current mess is, generally, attributed at the Global level to ill-advised policies followed by the US Administration. Notwithstanding the conspiracy theories, the fact remains that the people, whether out of scare or by design, chose their President who remains under the influence of neo-cons. Backed by Rich MNCs etc, who are making huge bucks all over, and carrying grandiose designs of ‘The American century’, his Administration has done the greatest harm to his country’ image/ credibility all over, particularly in the Muslim world. One feels sorry for the US which has now Albatrosses like Gitmo/ abu Ghuraib, the indiscriminate killings etc in Iraq based on ghost-WMDs/ the torture like in Gulag etc. Afghanistan suffers heavily but its people fight on in consonance with their history.
Most Muslims disapprove of terrorism but in self-defence many things pass muster. However, while the poor Americans are dying in the on-going wars, the rich ones only philosophize about such rueful developments. Similarly, while the average American is suffering due to stagflation, terrible prices of oil and the misery let loose by the credit-crunch, the policy-makers etc and other affluent segments running huge Corporations are having a boom in earnings. This segment could not care less about any change but the rest of us do. When everything fails, they would try Isolationism which may be difficult to work in the current situation.


 

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