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July 5, 2007 |  3 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Research  

Think Tank Analysis: The Next US President: Republican Foreign Policy

Niklas Keller: reveals what to expect on foreign policy from the US presidential hopefuls for 2008. In this first installment, Nuland introduces the top Republican contenders and finds that what plays to the people now is just the tip of the iceberg.

Early in an election cycle, foreign policy talk in Washington takes on an element of domestic lip service. Candidates tend to speak primarily to the concerns of the electorate, rather than broadly laying out what might be considered cohesive policy. That means talk on Iraq, terrorism and the greater Middle East, and ambiguity in most other foreign policy areas. Here’s what we know so far:

John McCain
Senator McCain is the Republican presidential hopeful with the most expertise in foreign policy. His experiences in the Vietnam War inspire veneration from colleagues, and he is the ranking member of the Senate Committee on Armed Services.

A supporter of the Iraq war from the beginning, McCain remains one of the most outspoken proponents of continued military involvement and the “clear, hold and build” model of the current troop surge. McCain separated himself from Bush administration policy in Iraq earlier than many of his Republican colleagues, speaking out against the administration’s post-conflict planning and insufficient troop deployment in Spring 2004. He now maintains a nothing-less-than-victory approach to Iraq and opposes troop withdrawal.

The foreign policy McCain has put forth so far would likely end eight years of Bush Doctrine unilateralism. He has already advocated the creation of a League of Democracies: a body of “like-minded nations working together in the cause of peace” and dedicated to multilateral cooperation. He supports the continuation of the one-China policy and believes that engaging Beijing is the best approach to dealing with rising Chinese power.

McCain is also a longtime critic of Tehran. While his impromptu musical rendition of “Bomb Iran” is no certain indicator of policy, it constitutes much more plain speech than the mantra he shares with other candidates that “all options are on the table.”

Rudolph W. Giuliani
Giuliani has no formal experience as a practitioner of US foreign policy, but his tenure as mayor of New York City during and after 9/11 is credential enough for many. Giuliani was considered a “law and order mayor”, overseeing a period of increased police presence, a significant drop in crime, high prosperity, and surges in tourism. Supporters expect that he would lead the United States in much the same way he led the city.

As a possible indicator of policy strengths, Giuliani was rated “best presidential candidate for Israel” by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. The perception is fueled largely by his rejection of a $10 million donation to the 9/11 relief effort, made by a Saudi prince who had criticized Israel. Giuliani was an original member of the Iraq Study Group, though he left after only two months, long before the Baker-Hamilton Report was published in December 2006. Experiences in New York put Giuliani square in the “tough on terror” camp, and he advocates continued involvement in Iraq. But the former mayor has yet to say anything novel on foreign policy and has been accused of merely toeing the party line.

Fred Thompson
Though he has not yet officially declared candidacy, Thompson’s polling numbers show he is the main challenger to Giuliani and McCain for the Republican presidential nomination. Thompson has considerable foreign policy experience: as a Senator he spent time on the Foreign Relations Committee and now holds positions with both the Council on Foreign Relations and The American Enterprise Institute. One of his major advantages as a candidate has nothing to do with real-world politics: he played district attorney Arthur Branch on the US television series Law and Order, from 2005 until the beginning of his current campaign. On foreign policy Thompson has said that he “would essentially do what the president’s doing in Iraq”. His June 19th comments to the Policy Exchange in London
are the most current example of what President Thompson’s foreign policy might look like. His purported commitment to greater communication with allies and a palpably less stoic approach to diplomacy are the only indicators that his presidency would depart from current White House policy trends.

Thompson is a supporter of the Bush Doctrine and rules out neither interventionism nor the idea that America maintain a sense of mission in foreign affairs. He is a strong NATO supporter, voting twice for expansion, and champions the transatlantic relationship. He thinks European governments should do more to expand military capacity. In general, however, he has yet to lay out a plan with as much depth as McCain’s League of Democracies.


Members of the Atlantic Community, who do you support? Which of these Republican candidates can do the most for America, for transatlantic relations, for the world? We will follow up this article with profiles of leading Democratic presidential contenders, as part of our continuing coverage of the Next American President. Tell us what you think below! You can also vote on your preferred candidate in the poll on the right, or wait until next week for our coverage of the democratic contenders.


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William L T Schirano

July 9, 2007

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With all due respect, I don't think that any analysis of the Republican candidates would be complete without an examination of Mitt Romney (especially after he penned a piece in the most recent Foreign Affairs).

Moreover, Romney is leading McCain in many polls---especially those in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Please note, I have no ties to the Romney camp, nor have I made a decision to support any candidate. I do however believe that to rule Mitt Romney out prematurely is a tremendous mistake.

William L T Schirano
Alexandria, VA
 
Will  Nuland

July 10, 2007

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Dear Mr. Schirano,

Point well taken. We didn't mean to exclude Romney from the discussion as much as we were limited to three candidates in our attempts to be concise. Thompson had just experienced a significant surge in the polls at the time the article was written and the discussion on the dissolution of McCain's campaign hadn't yet reach this week's pitch. In an example of somewhat unfortunate serendipity, TNR online posted this piece: http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=w070702&s=judis070607 the day after ours ran. Not much to do after the fact, but we will be providing updates of the campaign as the season progresses. For readers who are interested in Mitt Romney's campaign platform, heres a link to "(external)his Foreign Affairs piece":http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20070701faessay86402/mitt-romney/rising-to-a-new-generation-of-global-challenges.html and a brief "(external)profile from About.com":http://usforeignpolicy.about.com/od/2008presidentialrace/p/mromney.htm

For further info, its always good to take a look at campaign home pages, in this case:

http://www.mittromney.com

Thanks very much for the comment, Mr. Schirano. We'll be taking a look at the Democrats later this week and truly appreciate your contributions.
 
William L T Schirano

July 10, 2007

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Many thanks Mr. Nuland,

A point to revise, apparently Mr. Romney is not ahead of Mr. McCain in South Carolina. My error.

Best,
Will Schirano
 

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