The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 55 economists throughout the year. Broad surveys on more than 10 major economic indicators are carried out every month. In this month's Wall Street Journal forecasting survey, 71% of respondents answered "yes" when asked whether the economy is in a recession.
As the poll shows a sharp drop in first half forecasts, Scott Anderson of Wells Fargo & Co. said "the evidence is now beyond a reasonable doubt." This pessimism is reflected in consumers' sentiment and confidence which is said to be reaching record lows.
Phil Izzo, a Wall Street Journal reporter, discusses the pessimistic responses in this video:
The Wall Street Journal notes that retail sales are falling for the second consecutive month and more steeply than in January - from -0,4 to -0,6%, as consumers try to curb their spending to catch up for the rise in price of basic commodities.
While for most individuals, their house is their single largest asset, the downturn of the housing market that spun off the crisis continues. The number of jobs added to the economy every month is much lower than predicted and unemployment is on the rise, expected to hit 5,5% in December up from the current 4,8%.
Meager growth rates tend to indicate a slowdown stronger than in 2001 and 1990-91. As for recovery, some announce it for later this year while others believe we could have to wait till 2010: "It's going to take some time even under the best of circumstances before the Fed can be comfortable that the economic situation has stabilized," said Bruce Kasman of J.P. Morgan Chase.
The full article and various figures/graphics are available on the Wall Street Journal website. This summary was prepared by Gaelle Fisher of the Atlantic Community's editorial team.
Another video by the Wall Street Journal: "The Fed and a Panic-Driven Market"
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