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October 14, 2008 | Russia Can "Talk Away" Georgia Conflict

Moscow’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia does not correlate with universal approval, and an international dialogue concerning the status of Georgia is set to begin. ++ Europe has proven itself too dissolute to confront Russia …More

October 13, 2008 | Russia Strengthens Iran's Hand

Recent developments have greatly reduced the chances of a war against Iran. ++ Washington had planned to conduct air strikes against Iran from Georgian soil. ++ Russian intervention makes it impossible, which has “strengthened Iran’s …More

October 10, 2008 | Russia: Superpower Pretensions Unrealistic

Russia’s military is almost an obsolete force due to poor training and poor quality of armaments. ++ Russia’s defense budget is just 7% of US spending. ++ It is unlikely that Russia will be able to afford the $200 billion needed …More

October 10, 2008 | NATO Loses Control of the Caucasus Conflict

NATO has lost itself in the in Caucasus conflict. ++ Medvedev has repeatedly outlined his plans for a EU security architecture - he views his country’s security interests neglected. ++ The EU has almost disqualified itself from …More

October 9, 2008 | Shared Interests

Mark Brzezinski: It is unlikely that there is a Kremlin “master plan” guiding Russia’s actions toward her neighbors - her actions are driven variably by ambition and nostalgia, confusion or misinterpretation, irritation or resentment. The West’s goal should be to make Russia understand that working together with the US and EU will make it more prosperous, secure and free. …More

October 7, 2008 | Russia is Dying

We are too easily impressed by the Russian bear. ++ “Moscow remains bent on ignoring the devastating truth: The nation is not just sick but dying.” ++ The population is declining, the economy is totally dependent on oil revenues, and the public health crisis “verges …More

October 3, 2008 | The Fog of War, The Fog of Memory

US incursions into Cambodia, which led to its destabilization and the rise of the Khmer Rouge, should be remembered. ++ The same mistake is being made in Pakistan, where the dangers are far greater. ++ Undermining Pakistan does not help …More

October 2, 2008 | Pakistani Intelligence Battles Internal Extremism

Pakistan can no longer play its “dangerous double-game”: accepting money form the US while also supporting the Taliban and other extremists. ++ General Kayani has appointed a new spy chief, Lt. Gen Ahmed Shuja, who must work to …More

September 30, 2008 | The Polish-Lithuanian Tandem

Alexandros Petersen & Ryan R. Miller: Poland and Lithuania can play an important role in advancing U.S. priorities in the “New East Europe.” …More

September 24, 2008 | Georgia: The Right Conflict, the Right Time?

Ralf Fuecks: There is a tendency to ignore discomfiting facts so as not to disturb good relations with Russia. This approach, which borders on Russian blackmail, is a categorical failure. Moscow needs to be integrated into the EU fold; but at the same time, the EU must be willing to evince a willingness to face the right conflict at the right time. …More

September 23, 2008 | The EU Can Mediate Georgia Conflict

Memo 8: Atlantic Community members conclude that the EU, acting in coordination with the UN, is in the best position to negotiate a peaceful solution. The US, Russia, Georgia, NATO, and others must consider their future strategies carefully. …More

September 22, 2008 | Pakistan: "Running Out of Time"

President Bush’s decision to allow US military operations within Pakistan shows how desperate the situation is becoming. ++ But, if the Taliban and other extremists are to be permanently subdued, it must be done by Pakistan itself. ++ The US …More

September 18, 2008 | Kyrgyzstan's Lessons from the Russian-Georgian War

Askarbek Erkinovich Mambetaliev: Many commentators are looking to Kyrgyzstan to express its “creed” about the Russia-Georgia conflict, considering Kyrgyzstan a key country in Central Asia. It seems no one wants to cross the “older brother” Russia. Therefore, President Kurmanbek Bakiev must act wisely in this situation. …More

September 17, 2008 | Redefine the Concept of Independence

Hall Gardner: Moscow’s decision to recognize South Ossetian and Abkhazian independence has begun to backfire: Russia has been widely criticized for its actions and the events in Georgia could provoke nationalist claims for independence within Russia itself. Redefining the concept of “independence” might be a way out of the crisis. …More

September 16, 2008 | Russia Trusts Common Sense Will Finally Prevail

If Russia is to believe that the anti-missile base in Poland will not be used against it, US and its allies have to stop making “cosmetic political gestures” and give concrete guarantees. ++ Statements about Kremlin’s …More

September 15, 2008 | US Attacks in Pakistan Must Continue

In July President Bush decided to increase attacks by US forces against the Taliban in tribal areas. ++ This increase is in response to the Taliban’s growing strength in Pakistan, more attacks on NATO forces in Afghanistan, and an increase in …More

September 15, 2008 | Moscow Carefully Eyeing Afghanistan

Russia is convinced that it can deal with the West, but worries about the dangerous Afghanistan. ++ The well-being of the Russian economy and a good relationship with its domestic Muslim population depend on a stable Afghanistan. ++ Therefore, …More

September 12, 2008 | "The Russians Aren't Coming"

Russia’s recent actions make it look like the Cold War is back, but Russia is still a poor, weak country. ++ Russia’s military is no match for NATO and their backup nuclear arsenal is unlikely to play a role in conflicts. ++ Moscow can claim few …More

September 11, 2008 | First Calls for Saakashvili's Resignation

A growing number of voices call for Saakashvili’s resignation due to his felonious decision to bomb Zchinwali. ++ In spite of the government’s rhetoric, which tries to justify any efforts to keep South Ossetia, the opposition calls for an …More

September 9, 2008 | The Georgian Flaw in Transatlantic Security

Colette Grace Mazzucelli: The US, acting in coordination with the EU, should address the crisis in Georgia with a strong humanitarian effort and a firm, yet non-isolating, stance toward Russia. As foreign policy concerns are compounded by domestic challenges, the next US administration must prudently tackle economic problems and re-define America’s role in world affairs. …More

September 8, 2008 | The EU Must Incorporate Ukraine

Ukraine is approaching its third election in two years, a sign of its government’s volatility. ++ In response, the EU should put Ukraine on a clear road to accession, an albeit controversial move that is nevertheless in its vital interest. ++ …More

September 8, 2008 | Russia, the West, and the Make-Believe Strategists

Christoph Bertram: No one should have been surprised at the way in which Russia has treated tiny and weak Georgia. What is surprising, however, is the eagerness with which many western governments continue to pretend that they can wield effective influence on Russia’s behavior in the Caucasus. …More

September 5, 2008 | EU Should Balance Criticism Toward Russia and Georgia

Leonie Holthaus: The EU should serve as a mediator in the Russian-Georgian dispute. This role requires that the EU does not take sides with one conflicting party but rather balance its criticism. Even if a position like this is perceived as “hesitant” in the US press, it may contribute to resolving the conflict by diplomatic means. …More

September 5, 2008 | PKK Attacks in Cities Try to Divide Turks and Kurds

Intelligence sharing between the US and Turkey has forced the PKK out of the countryside and into the cities, bringing their violent attacks with them. ++ Further security measures, such as protected bus routes and tightened …More

September 4, 2008 | Proposal for a United Policy Towards Russia

David Francis: The EU must take a strong yet cooperative stance toward Russia. The next US administration must regain its moral standing in international politics. Ultimately, Moscow must understand that its recent actions in Georgia are unacceptable. …More

September 4, 2008 | Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan Harness Natural Resources

Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan lead the region as two countries
that have successfully harnessed their natural resources allowing them to grow
their economies and avoid the apparent “natural resource curse” that plagues
many …More

September 3, 2008 | Russia Did Not Change the World After All

“The attack on Georgia will go down not as the dawn of a new era of Russian power but as a major strategic blunder.” ++ Russia thought it had little to lose, but it has driven its neighbors, like Poland and Ukraine, into the …More

September 1, 2008 | End the Isolation of Secessionist Movements

Judy Fu: The situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia is a reflection of the sorry state of affairs for millions of people living under unrecognized de facto government or in secessionist territories. There are important lessons to be learned here in the need to engage non-state actors. …More

August 29, 2008 | Turkey Must Choose Between NATO and Russia

Will Turkey side with the US, its NATO ally, and give it access to the Black Sea to assist Georgia, or will it choose Russia? ++ Russia is warning Turkey that it will hold it responsible if US ships do not leave. ++ Turkey depends on …More

August 28, 2008 | Russian Citizenship: Moscow's Tool for Recollecting the Empire's Lands

Andreas Umland: A justification for Russia’s recent invasion of Georgia was that it had to protect its citizens in South Ossetia. There is, however, a subtle difference between a state’s protection of its citizens living abroad, and its defense of citizens creating their own state within another country …More

August 28, 2008 | Russia Was Given no Choice

It was Saakashvili’s behavior that forced Russia to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. ++ Relations of different nations living in one state have to be handled with great sensitivity. ++ Russia respects its minorities and …More

August 28, 2008 | Risky Business Needed Between EU, US, and Russia

The agenda for cooperation with Russia looks doubtful but safe havens for cooperation still exist. ++ For instance, the entire civil and military nuclear agenda opens room for diplomacy. ++ However, no single European institution …More

August 28, 2008 | EU Should Handle Georgia Like Kosovo

The crucial question at the upcoming European head of state meeting is about the right of self-determination in the context of the Caucasus crises. ++ EU foreign policy towards Kosovo indicates that it is an advocate of self-determination; …More

August 26, 2008 | US Should Give up on Solving Georgia Crisis

There is little the United States can do to help Georgia. ++ Russia, with its nuclear weapons, oil, dollar reserves and seat on the UN Security Council, has too much leverage on US foreign policy, so banishing Russia from the G8 would be …More

August 22, 2008 | Transatlantic Unity Should Not Isolate Russia

Matthew Derek Crosston: The West needs some serious balance in the way it analyzes and discusses the Georgian conflict. Academics, diplomats, and journalists have come forward with a united response to Ossetia: Russia is showing ‘imperialist ambitions’ and ‘a disproportionate reaction.’ This is ridiculous. …More

August 22, 2008 | End of Stalemate in Missile Defence Negotiations

Even though both Washington and Warsaw deny it, it was the Russian attack on Georgia that broke the stalemate in negotiations and pushed Polish government towards signing the missile defence treaty on Wednesday. ++ A garrison of …More

August 20, 2008 | 8/8 Marks a New Era in Global Politics

Volodymyr Horbach: Consequences of the recent conflict in Georgia will be as serious and global as those after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Ukraine’s position in this conflict is especially uncomfortable as it needs to preserve good neighborly relations with both Georgia and Russia. Kiev should not, therefore, take sides but take part in the peacekeeping mission. …More

August 19, 2008 | Russian Belligerence Will Strengthen Transatlantic Relations

Marek Swierczynski: Even though technically Russia won the war, the victory will paradoxically weaken Russia’s position towards its western partners, especially the US. Military action against Georgia – however limited in scale – is a symbolic resurrection of Russia’s imperial ambitions and will thus strengthen transatlantic partnership. …More

August 18, 2008 | Central Europe's Energy Security Schism

Ryan R. Miller: Central European countries are, on balance, divided, not united, when it comes to Russian energy supply dominance. Washington should find ways to step up its involvement and combat both the symptoms of Central Europe’s energy security ‘schism’ as well as the disease itself. …More

August 15, 2008 | How America Should Respond to Resurgent Russia

Wess Mitchell: The United States should announce its intention to transfer the entire Europe-based American military establishment to new locations in Central Europe, because many of the EU’s largest states are more interested in avoiding a rupture with Moscow than in protecting the vital interests of the Union’s eastern members. …More

August 15, 2008 | Biased US Media Takes Georgia's Side

US journalism was famous for its independence and professionalism, but recent coverage of the Russia-Georgia conflict is unfair and unbalanced. ++ The so-called free press automatically took Georgia’s side and ignored or distorted events in …More

August 14, 2008 | The West Must Stop Power-Hungry Russia

If the world allows Russia to crush Georgia’s democracy and independence, it will give a green light to all authoritarian governments. ++ The historical echoes of Finland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia are deafening and only Western …More

August 13, 2008 | Western Policy Fuelled the War in Georgia

This week’s events in Georgia proved the failure of the Western policy of belligerence towards the Kremlin. ++ It failed to take into account the complexity of the ethnic, religious, and nationalist structures in Georgia and even …More

August 13, 2008 | A Juridical View on the Caucasus Conflict

The clashes in the Caucasus show once again how explosive secessionist conflicts can be. ++ According to international law, they endanger global peace and only the UN and the OSCE are authorized to manage the resolution of such conflicts. …More

August 13, 2008 | Only Transatlantic Unity Can Stop This War

Richard Holbrooke and Ronald D. Asmus: Moscow’s behavior in Georgia poses a direct challenge to European and international order. Georgia deserves our solidarity and support. Only strong transatlantic cooperation can put an end to this conflict and begin to repair the immense damage done. …More

August 12, 2008 | Let's Open the Bosnian X-Files

Ari Rusila: The trial of Radovan Karadzic will answer many open questions of the Balkan events during 1990’s. Some reports suggest quite a disgusting picture about “realpolitik” behind the noble statements of the international community. …More

August 12, 2008 | Georgia Fights for Our Common Transatlantic Values

Of all the post-Soviet states, Georgia has come furthest in the fight to strenghten democracy and independent foreign policy and that is precisely what Russia wants to thwart. ++ The fact that Russia was entrusted with the …More

August 12, 2008 | Russia Does not Hold all the Blame

Russia has continued to recognize Georgia’s regional unity and merely responded to the Georgian attack on South Ossetia. ++ To call it an attack on “small, defenseless Georgia” is hypocritical and inhumane. ++ Western encouragement prompted …More

August 12, 2008 | The West and the Georgian-Russian Conflict

The current conflict is not only about Russia and Georgia, but also represents the US-Russian competition for control over the strategically important transit routes for oil and gas. ++ The Georgian President must have aimed at American …More

August 11, 2008 | Russia is Thwarting Georgia's NATO Ambitions

Western support of Kosovo’s declaration of independence and NATO’s assurance of Georgia and Ukraine’s eventual Atlantic Alliance membership erode Russian influence on former states of the USSR. ++ Georgia pays a high price …More

August 11, 2008 | What to Expect from the Georgia-Russia Crisis

Stefan Wolff: South Ossetia might well become Georgia’s Chechnya. The current escalation of military hostilities has put the likelihood of a sustainable settlement off even further. The European Union is the best-placed conflict manager in the South Caucasus. …More

August 9, 2008 | Report from Tbilisi: Georgia Under Full Attack

Tamuna Kekenadze: On Saturday morning, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili requested the Parliament to endorse his decision on declaring martial law on the entire territory of Georgia. The Parliament has approved the presidential decree immediately. …More

August 9, 2008 | Pandora's Box Is Opened

Ari Rusila: Kosovo’s unilateral proclamation of independence played a key role in events we see in South Ossetia today. Do we still have time to close the Pandora box and if yes - how? …More

August 8, 2008 | HOT ISSUE: How to Respond to the Caucasus Crisis?

From the Editorial Team: Georgia and Russia are on the brink of a full-fledged war. How should the European Union, NATO and individual Western governments respond to the current crisis? …More

August 6, 2008 | EU Leadership Necessary to Solve Abkhazian Conflict

EU realizes it is time to solve the festering conflicts in the Union’s new neighborhood: Abkhazia and South Ossetia. ++ But Moscow has an interest in preserving this “simmering status quo” and delays anything that …More

August 4, 2008 | Russia's Neoimperial Policies Make Georgia and Ukraine Seek NATO Membership

Grigol Ubiria: NATO’s eastern enlargement is too often solely considered from the perspective of Russia’s right to defend its interests on its borders. Little or no attention has been paid to factors forcing former Soviet republics, particularly Georgia and Ukraine, to rush to join the alliance. …More

July 29, 2008 | Destructive Double Standards

America declares it stands up for human rights; it condemns the regime in Burma and calls for fair democratic elections in Zimbabwe. ++ However, it is doing so only where it is convenient: human rights infringements in China and Saudi Arabia or the fact …More

July 29, 2008 | Time for the EU to Let in Balkan States

It has to be said out loud that the EU project will not be complete as long as all Balkan countries are not allowed to join: letting in Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Bosnia, Kosovo and Albania is crucial for progress and peace on the …More

July 29, 2008 | Opportunity to Recast US-Pakistani Relations

Yousaf Raza Gilani, the new civilian prime minister of Pakistan, is visiting Washington this week. ++ Talks between the leaders of Pakistan and the US are an opportunity to recast bilateral relations and start a closer cooperation to …More

July 24, 2008 | The End of the Serbian Black Hole

The arrest of the Bosnian Serb leader, political mastermind of the Bosnian genocide, Radovan Karadzic on charges of war crimes is a clear indication that ultranationalists no longer speak for Serbia ++ The decision to abide by the EU’s requirement …More

July 22, 2008 | The Future of Kosovo

Ari Rusila: The years to come in the Balkan region cannot be as bleak as those of the recent past. Despite uncertainties regarding developments in Kosovo, the following scenarios offer likely alternatives and demonstrate the region has a future. …More

July 21, 2008 | US Hopes for a New Accord With Moscow are Dead

Hopes for friendly relations with Russia, running high in the 1990s, were ruined by the Bush administration. ++ NATO membership offer to Georgia and Ukraine and plans to install elements of missile defense shield in Poland and the …More

July 15, 2008 | Will Kosovo Rise With 2 Billion Bucks?

Ari Rusila: As a result of an international donors conference, Kosovo has been given some 1.2 million euros. What for and how is this money going to be used when it reaches destination? …More

July 15, 2008 | Ukraine's Western Integration: A Slow Process

Memo 7: The members of the Atlantic Community believe that Ukraine belongs to Europe. Ukraine needs to be integrated into Western alliances without undermining Western-Russian relations. …More

July 15, 2008 | War in the Air Between Georgia and Russia

The prospect of war between Georgia and Russia is increasingly realistic. ++ We must stand up for Georgia and prevent the war as it could lead to the breakdown of Russia’s relations with the West and destabilize a territory so crucial for …More

July 14, 2008 | The Gas Price of Democracy

It seems that the importance of liberty and democracy in Russia is inversely correlated to the prices of oil and gas. ++ While denouncing Mugabe, Council of Europe secretary-general recently expressed his admiration for Putin and Medvedev, whose hold on …More

July 11, 2008 | Ukraine Will be Russia's Path to Europe

The elusive perception of the West as a threat is still alive in Russia. ++ But Moscow’s self-destructive confrontation with the West and its fantasy of allying with China can be halted if Ukrainian europeanization succeeds. ++ Ukraine is …More

July 8, 2008 | Dead End in Sight for Poland's Missile Defense Site

Marek Swierczynski: Commotion and despair are in the air after Poland rejected the US bid to host ballistic defence system. The government is evasive in public statements and sends opposing signals in diplomacy. The MD project, once regarded as a unique historic opportunity, seems to be drifting away. …More

July 7, 2008 | Human Rights in Russia: Appealing to Outside Interference

Joerg Beige & Arianna de Mario: There are still cases of politically motivated trials that lack basic lawful principles in Russia. We should not be afraid to appear ‘russophobic’ and remind the Russian authorities that they are obliged to comply with international law standards. …More

July 4, 2008 | A New Phase of Russian Politics is Underway

Conventional wisdom which treated President Medvedev as a mere continuation of Putin is oversimplified. ++ We are witnessing one of the most promising periods in Russian history. ++ The new Russian government with two centers of power …More

July 3, 2008 | EU Constitution for a "Protective Europe"

Besides a Europe of markets, trade, and economic liberalization the French President Nicolas Sarkozy calls for a “protective Europe.” ++ With this, he intends to assuage the discontent of people who feel abandonned by the …More

July 1, 2008 | Averting Secessionism in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus

Hall Gardner: NATO’s Bucharest Summit in April 2008 did not fully address the question of how to create a viable system of security for the volatile region of eastern Europe, the Balkans, and the Caucasus. As eastern Europe, the Balkans and the Caucasus are all riddled with secessionist and irredentist movements since Soviet collapse, it will require concerted US, EU, and Russian attention if a major crisis is to be averted. …More

June 27, 2008 | Russia's Western Border is a Sensitive Issue

Heinrich Bonnenberg: To Russia, its current western border is a border that stands for loss and dishonor. This border is an open, bleeding wound on the Russian body. The security pact that the Russian president recently presented in Berlin could be helpful in overcoming historical grievances and bringing Western Europe and Russia closer together. …More

June 24, 2008 | The Emergence of a Another Two-Speed Europe

Most EU leaders want to continue with the ratification of the Lisbon treaty regardless of the disastrous outcome of the Irish vote. ++ Sarkozy and Merkel in particular are pushing for the treaty to be implemented, yet only governments and …More

June 19, 2008 | US Paints a False yet Alarming Picture of Russia

The USA is not performing the transition to conventional weapons, which was meant to lessen the country’s dependence on nuclear weapons for defense. ++ US politicians and media are using the claim that Russia is boosting its …More

June 19, 2008 | Natural Gas is Russia's New Weapon of Choice

In the 80s Ronald Reagan warned Europe about becoming dependent on Russian energy. ++ With Gazprom supplying over 40 percent of Germany’s natural gas, this prediction is becoming a reality. ++ A question for the future, is …More

June 13, 2008 | Regional Cooperation Better Than NATO/EU Enlargement

Hall Gardner: A move towards Ukrainian NATO membership would strain relations with Russia and have serious consequences. In the short-term, Ukraine should remain “neutral”, while the EU introduces new, and expands existing confidence building economic and political areas of cooperation with Kiev and Moscow. In the long-term, Europe should seek to develop a confederal relationship with both Ukraine and Russia. …More

June 13, 2008 | EU-Russia Relations Should be Institutionalized

Russia’s main challenge is the modernization of its economy, politics, and society. ++ President Medvedev has singled out the rule of law as a particularly significant aspect of the reforms. ++ The EU should support these reform …More

June 12, 2008 | Bright-Side Economics

László Andor: …More

June 12, 2008 | Division of Power Shifting in Russia

Whatever Putin and Medvedev said, there is no doubt that the transfer of power towards Moscow’s White House has begun. ++ The head of the presidential administration has called for a change to the Constitution, with the purpose of strengthening …More

June 11, 2008 | Ukraine's Conditional Future in the EU

David Francis: Germany should champion Ukraine’s membership in the European Union. However, this support should come with conditions. …More

June 9, 2008 | Turkey's Geopolitical Importance for the West

For a long time Turkey has been a haven of geopolitical stability. ++ Yet the Iraq War has subjected Turkey’s virtually unquestioned alliance with the US to reassessment.++ Turkey’s general consensus on its EU candidacy has started …More

June 9, 2008 | German-Russian Friendship: A Dangerous Assumption

While Medvedev “struck a friendly pose in Berlin,” future action or lack of thereof will be the true test of Russian-German relations. ++ Germany must be careful to avoid becoming “a mouthpiece of Russian interests” and hurting …More

June 6, 2008 | Russia Wants to be a Part of the West

Russia is changing. ++ The new Russian president’s speeches in Berlin about the importance of free press, of a broad middle class, and of the acknowledgement of mistakes made during the Prague spring are more than astonishing. ++ Although his …More

June 5, 2008 | Ukraine's Future Lies in the EU, not NATO

Heinrich Bonnenberg: Germany and the EU must give stronger credit to Ukraine’s emergence as an independent democracy in the tradition of Europe’s historic liberal movements. The EU should quickly enable Ukrainian accession, but NATO membership should not be pursued, as this would likely exasperate tensions with Russia. …More

June 4, 2008 | Russia Must Join a Boycott of Iran

Since economic sanctions are the best means to cause unrest among the Iranian population, they are also the most effective tool to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. ++ However, Russia needs to be on board. ++ The Western offer to the …More

June 3, 2008 | The West Must Help Prevent War in Georgia

Western calls for restraint are ineffective as tensions rise in Georgia over Abkhazia, the region where Russia supports separatist aspirations that threaten Georgia’s national unity. ++ “Moscow seems determined to provoke Tbilisi to take …More

June 3, 2008 | Gridlock Persists in Macedonian Name Game

Compromise has yet to be reached on the issue of Macedonia’s official name and national identity, as Greece recently blocked the country from joining NATO, out of fears that a recognized Macedonian nation state would mobilize separatist …More

June 2, 2008 | German Role in Afghanistan Overstated

Senior Afghan official, Mohammad Z. Wahdats is skeptical that there would be less stability in Afghanistan’s north without the Germans. ++ “For the issue of security, we don’t need them any more. We solve all our problems by ourselves.” ++ …More

May 28, 2008 | NATO and Russia: Relationship Must be Redefined

Memo 6: Members of the Atlantic Community are convinced that NATO needs to redefine its future role and relationship with Russia. Fundamental change, however, is unlikely to occur in the near future and the NATO-Russian relationship may worsen. …More

May 27, 2008 | The Paranoia Card: A comment on Tsygankov's "The Russophobia Card"

Andreas Umland: US “anti-Russian” rhetoric is not that particular. One can hear similar voices in both Western and Eastern Europe. In the unlikely case that Russia becomes a truly democratic country, much of what Andrei Tsygankov laments in his recent article in “The Moscow Times” would simply disappear. …More

May 27, 2008 | The Eurovision Contest is the "Epitome of Soft Power"

Though the Eurovision Song Contest should not be reduced to politics, the extent to which political considerations surpass artistic ones is undeniable. ++ Russia’s victory resulted from the overwhelming support of former …More

May 23, 2008 | Russia and China: A Rising Strategic Partnership

President Medvedev’s visit to China  has important symbolic significance. ++ Driven by their shared goals of safeguarding and promoting national interests in an era of US dominance, Beijing and Moscow have grown increasingly …More

May 22, 2008 | EU/US Could Help Solve Serbia's Divide Over Europe

Uncertainty remains as to whether Serbia will turn East or West, but the radicalization of public opinion means the emerging government will have to defend Serb interests in Kosovo and encourage the de facto partition. ++ The …More

May 19, 2008 | Lukashenko May Stay but His Era is Over

Over the last 14 years, Lukashenko has secured Minsk’s sovereignty, improved the wealth of the population, and raised the interest of European investors. ++ Yet these achievements mask rampant corruption and lack of democracy. ++ Since both …More

May 19, 2008 | The Russophobia Card

Andrei Tsygankov: The US presidential candidates are increasingly playing the Russophobia card in their campaigns. In addressing Russia, Senators John McCain and Hillary Clinton have resorted to insulting President Vladimir Putin as a KGB spy who has no soul. Russophobia is truly back into fashion, as Senator Joseph Biden admitted last week.
…More

May 19, 2008 | Kiev Energy Summit: Slow Progress out of Russia's Fuel Grasp

Marek Swierczynski: One year since Poland launched key energy initiative that would decrease Central Europe’s fuel dependence from Russia, its results are less than impressive. But still declarations and documents seem much easier to prepare than pipelines, and soon new ones are to follow. …More

May 9, 2008 | Medvedev Will Not Change Russian Policy

Despite hopes for change in the West, the new Russian president is hardly going to initiate a new foreign policy. ++ While Medvedev’s liberal instincts are debatable, the forces arrayed around and against him remained the same. ++ …More

May 9, 2008 | The Two Towers of Future Russia

Andreas Umland: The rise of Dmitry Medvedev will mobilize the large anti-Western constituency in various sectors of the Russian elite. We may soon observe the emergence of another, different “tower” in the Russian state apparatus around which Moscow’s various nationalist politicians and publicists will unite. …More

May 7, 2008 | Medvedev Faces Off with Putin to Bring Change

Former Yeltsin supporters are rallying around Medvedev in the hope of setting Russia on a new, more reconciliatory course with the West. ++ After years of symbolic resistance and support of anti-American regimes, Medvedev wishes to cut …More

May 7, 2008 | Dire Consequences of Ukraine and Georgia Joining NATO

valentine anatolevich akishkin: The issue of NATO enlargement and membership to NATO divides the Ukrainian people. The split reflects the countries division along ethnical and geographical lines. Integrating Ukraine into the Alliance would more likely lead to confusion and conflict than democracy. …More

May 5, 2008 | Gorbachev Number Two: Dmitry Medvedev

Andreas Umland: Sooner or later it is to be expected that Medvedev’s deeper political beliefs – his apparently liberal and democratic views – will come to the fore. …More

May 5, 2008 | Can Medvedev Sustain Russia's Growth?

President-elect Dmitry Medvedev realizes that high economic growth cannot be sustained as long as Russia relies primarily on macroeconomic policy and rising oil prices, and inequality and corruption remain widespread. ++ His rhetoric …More

April 29, 2008 | Russo-Japanese Relations Are Improving

Japan and Russia’s planned cooperation in fields of energy, transportation, and the environment require settling their territorial dispute. ++ So as to expand its influence in the booming Asia-Pacific region and maintain its volumes of …More

April 27, 2008 | Between the Weimar and Bonn Scenarios: On Russia's Rising Anti-Americanism

Andreas Umland: A conspirological form of anti-Americanism has become Russia’s new foreign policy doctrine. Paradoxically, the Russian elite, at the same time, wants to build closer relations with the US’s major partner in continental Europe - Germany. …More

April 19, 2008 | Ukraine, NATO, and German Foreign Policy

Andreas Umland: Don’t overestimate Berlin’s statements concerning Russian interests in the former USSR …More

April 14, 2008 | Rethinking Energy Inc.

Andreas Goldthau: The extent to which Russia’s resources are sustaining the country’s growth and influencing its foreign policy tends to be overstated. Having to adapt to domestic and geopolitical circumstances, and the rules of the global market considerably restricts the Kremlin’s room for maneuver. …More

April 8, 2008 | NATO and Russia Need a Shared Vision

Andre Kelleners: NATO membership states should consult with Russia to determine a common understanding of NATO’s role. Selected Partnership-for-Peace countries should eventually join the alliance as full members together with and at the same time as Russia. …More

April 4, 2008 | Bush in Bucharest: Failure on Timing and Execution

Mark Burgess: Afghanistan is NATO’s most pressing crisis, but President Bush distracted the Alliance with his push for NATO enlargement. Georgia and Ukraine can wait. Afghanistan cannot. …More

April 3, 2008 | Surrealistic Debate Over NATO Membership for Ukraine

Andreas Umland: It’s accepted by all Ukrainian political forces that the country’s entry into NATO will have to be decided by a referendum. Thus, no serious application for membership will be put forward within the next years. The current debate about its NATO membership is in actual fact surrealistic. …More

April 2, 2008 | Re-entering the EU

Marek Swierczynski: After a political upheaval and embarassment for President Kaczyński, Polish Parliament passed the bill to ratify the Treaty of Lisbon. The victory of the pro-EU lobby backed by overwhelming public support should not be overestimated as the debate did not touch the real issues behind Lisbon. …More

March 27, 2008 | Medvedev Will Not Bring Change to Russia

Medvedev will not transform a system created by his mentor, to which he contributed, and thanks to which he enjoys uncontested primacy. ++ Only economic difficulties and hostility to the intended modernization could bolster conservative opposition and result in change. ++ Russia’s political future will depend on the executive team’s ability to sustain growth, but liberalization remains unlikely.

March 24, 2008 | Jeff Gedmin, President of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Fighting tyranny through the airwaves is Jeff Gedmin’s goal. He was named president of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty on February 2, 2007. Prior to taking this new position, Gedmin had been head of the Aspen Institute in …More

March 21, 2008 | The West and the Rise of New Russia

Nothing opposes Yeltsin’s and Putin’s terms in office more strikingly than their interpretation and understanding. ++ The West’s demonization of Putin is in stark contrast with high levels of consent and popularity at home. ++ The West should not …More

March 17, 2008 | US Decline is Bad for Japan

War in Iraq might decrease US ability to preserve peace in East Asia - a serious concern for Japan. ++ Japan relies on the Middle East for 90 percent of its oil - stability in the region is vital. ++ North Korea will never dismantle nuclear weapons without US influence. ++ Japan should maintain close relationship with US - decline in US power is not in Japan’s national interest.

March 14, 2008 | Proceeding Without Moscow on Missile Defense

Energy exports are enabling Russia to be increasingly assertive and object to the US’ deployment of 10 missiles near its borders. ++ If it is possible concerning terrorism and nuclear energy, cooperation between the two countries may spread to more areas, but regarding European missile defense, the US should stand its ground. ++ Giving in would only lead to
greater intransigence from the Kremlin.

March 14, 2008 | A Change in Russian Foreign Policy

Aside from entertaining international tensions to maintain high oil prices, Russian foreign policy has been dominated by ambivalence towards the West. ++ With the crucial importance of Russians’ foreign assets, the West should not be provoked but …More

March 12, 2008 | Serbia's Choice: Between Integration and Isolation

Aiming primarily to qualify Serbia for membership in the EU, the Democratic Party of Tadic offers the country the most sensible economic, strategic, and diplomatic solution. ++ Kosovo’s declaration of independence may have …More

March 12, 2008 | The Disastrous Results of Selective Modernization

The development of modern western democracies in the last century linked economic growth with political and cultural modernization. ++ Russia and China seem to demonstrate there is a viable authoritarian alternative to democracy and …More

March 10, 2008 | The Need for Western Engagement in Belarus

Lukashenko requires economic stability to maintain his power and popularity. ++ With Russia threatening to double once again the price of natural gas imports to the country, the president has been forced to take liberal measures and …More

March 7, 2008 | NATO Enlargement and Alliance Principles

Dora Bakoyannis: Greece supports the enlargement of NATO in the Western Balkans with the invitations to Croatia and Albania, but the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s “intransigeant stance and its actions of an irredentist and nationalistic logic” are unacceptable. …More

March 5, 2008 | Poland's Iran Option

Ryan R. Miller: Possible Polish-Iranian energy cooperation puts U.S. policy makers between a rock and a hard place, as America finds itself committed both to isolating the Islamic Republic and supporting Polish efforts to outflank Russia’s Gazprom. …More

March 4, 2008 | Reviewing Russian-American Relations

With broad-based support within Russia for the direction Putin is taking the country and high oil prices, the US can no longer expect Russia to merely acquiesce to its policy preferences. ++ America will have to choose between adamantly pursuing …More

February 29, 2008 | Dmitry Medvedev Faces an Unpalatable Legacy

The Russian economy is weaker than it appears. Inflation is in double figures and high growth has been dependent on commodity prices. ++ Furthermore political stability rests on a perversion of the meaning of democracy, and the Caucasus …More

February 27, 2008 | Encouraging Secularism in Kazakhstan

The EU needs to tie Kazakhstan to the West while it still can. ++ Kazakhstan has a secular tradition that can and should be encouraged, given surrounding “Islamic arc of instability.” ++ European Parliament shouldn’t reject Kazakhstan for ENP membership. ++ Western ties should be secured before Russia and China draw Kazakhstan further into spheres of influence.

February 25, 2008 | "Dependent Independence" in Kosovo

Kosovo’s declaration of independence is equally one of dependency - but it’s the “least worst” outcome. ++ Europe is pushing for Kosovo to move from protectorate to EU member state, without allowing it to achieve full independence. ++ Kosovo’s independence does not make the region any more unstable. ++ Serbia has a choice: to sulk, or to start working towards reconstruction and the EU.

February 25, 2008 | Rethinking the Efficacy of International Organizations

Kosovo’s independence weakens international institutions, which have been waning in influence since end of Cold War. ++ UN and NATO unable to regulate international conflicts. ++ Weaker countries most likely to support …More

February 25, 2008 | The Consumers of the Future

The so called “next billion” consumers come from Brazil, China, India, Eastern Europe and even parts of Africa and Asia and represent the largest untapped consumer market in the world. The Boston Consulting Group estimates that these new …More

February 20, 2008 | Putinism: Good or Bad for the West?

With the world’s attention now focusing on the unpredictable outcome of the American elections, it is easy to forget about their more predictable, but equally important equivalent in Russia. Recently named Time’s “Person of the Year,” …More

February 14, 2008 | The Western Balkans and the EU: Attitude is Key

Ruby Gropas: Through an examination of the hopes and expectations surrounding Western Balkan EU accession, Dr. Gropas concludes that without the will to accede — on everyone’s part — the Western Balkans won’t have the capacity to do so. …More

January 21, 2008 | Kosovo: Avoid US Unilateralism, Encourage EU Leaders

Memo 4: Members of the Atlantic Community are mostly optimistic about the future of Kosovo and conflict resolution in the Western Balkans. The EU has a key role in this region and policy is in the right track, but, of course, big challenges still lie ahead. …More

January 4, 2008 | Arms Race in the Caucasus

Thomas de Waal: The simmering conflicts in Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia could easily flare up. Although they are driven by unresolved regional disputes, both the US and Russia loom large in the background. …More

December 31, 2007 | Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal and Its Islamic Extremists

Drawing on the US Personnel Reliability Program, officials now check applicants and personnel for characteristics that might make them more likely to betray their nation’s secrets. Religious fervor is among the ones most …More

December 12, 2007 | Kosovo: It's Not as Bad as You Think

Elizabeth Pond: The EU and the UN can build on recent progress to resolve the last unfinished business from the 1990s’ Balkan wars. There is still a long way to go, though, to bring Kosovo under EU supervision and persuade Serbia to opt for a European future. …More

December 5, 2007 | "Thessaloniki 2": European Incentives for the Western Balkans

Alexandros P. Mallias: A clear prospect of EU membership is the most effective tool in helping countries of the western Balkans overcome their current challenges. Mallias presents a new strategic agenda for the western Balkans building on the Thessaloniki Agenda of 2003. …More

November 30, 2007 | Un-predicting the Russian Elections

Alexandros Petersen: I conclude that Putin’s United Russia administration has framed Sunday’s polls as a referendum on his popularity, ensuring extra support for the party. For all of the president’s finagling, however, the only certainty is that his means of retaining power in Russia next year will confound the pundits’ predictions. …More

November 29, 2007 | EU Can Prevent Versailles Syndrome in Serbia

Elizabeth Pond: I contend that the EU plan for Kosovo’s “supervised independence” will avoid the historical mistakes that could end up fueling Serbian resentment and ultranationalism. Offering eventual European Union membership to Serbia is a prudent step that will encourage Serbian cooperation. …More

November 23, 2007 | Twelve Years after Dayton: Europe and the Western Balkans

Marco Overhaus: 2007 and 2008 could be decisive years for the region. A difficult balance must be struck, between a renewed and robust EU engagement in the Western Balkans and the need to make reform efforts locally self-supporting. …More

November 16, 2007 | Russia Returns to the Baltic

Russia’s influence once again looms over the Baltic countries, and their position within the European Union and NATO is not mitigating the threat, argues International Herald Tribune journalist Adam Ellick. New Russian investments in media and …More

November 14, 2007 | EU Dependence on Russian Energy Could Jeopardize Transatlantic Relations

Europe has become heavily reliant on Russia to meet its energy needs. This trend undermines Europe’s self-confidence and jeopardizes its geopolitical position as well as that of the United States, says Ariel …More

October 31, 2007 | Leon Aron Dissects Putin's Alternatives in his Quest to Hold on to Power

Op-Ed Contributor to the New York Times Leon Aron insists Russia’s premiership does not provide Mr. Putin access to wide-ranging presidential powers, and explores Putin’s prospects of retaining …More

October 16, 2007 | Expect More Coalition Building After Polish Elections

Anna Nadgrodkiewicz: I offer a transatlantic perspective on what early elections could mean for Poland’s international standing. Current polls suggest that despite all of the government’s blunders, early voting may not spell the end of the Kaczyński moment. …More

October 11, 2007 | Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan Ambitions For Energy Transportation

Transportation of energy resources was top of the agenda during a recent talk between the presidents of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, reports News Central Asia. Presidents Nazarbaev and Berdymuhamedov said their countries …More

September 20, 2007 | Putting the Squeeze on Corruption in Afghanistan

Niklas Keller: of the Atlantic Initiative calls corruption one of the greatest obstacles to development in Afghanistan. The international community must create an incentive structure at both the governmental and local levels which is more attractive than corrupt activities. …More

September 17, 2007 | Ukraine Opens a New Chapter in EU Relations

Oleksandr Chalyi: I call for an enhanced bilateral agreement between the EU and Ukraine with integration and association as its ultimate goal. Yuschenko’s New Realism must aim to meet the Copenhagen criteria within ten years, unilaterally if necessary. …More

August 15, 2007 | Rocky Road Ahead For Turkish-American Relations

Irem Köker: I identify the issues to watch for between Turkey and the United States. Although the majority party remains in power, new developments on the Kurds, the Armenian genocide question and Turkey’s energy deal with Iran could have lasting consequences. …More

August 13, 2007 | Will Kosovo End the Transatlantic Honeymoon?

Nikolas Kirrill Gvosdev: The US course of action on statehood for Kosovo will be a major test for the newly fortified transatlantic relationship. …More

July 30, 2007 | Turkey: Tough Challenges for AKP Despite Landslide Victory

Yiorghos Leventis: The AKP’s recent election victory is not simply a blessing for the party: the specter of violent reaction by the country’s military establishment still looms large. The EU should reward Turkish reforms towards EU membership. …More

July 27, 2007 | The False Choice between Cold War and Warm Gaslines

Alexandros Petersen: Russia’s recent Cold War-esque behavior is a wake-up call for the transatlantic alliance to overcome internal divisions and strengthen energy routes from the Caspian and Central Asia. …More

July 25, 2007 | There's No Such Thing As Cyberterror

James Andrew Lewis: I use the assault on Estonian computers to explain the difference between real terror and cyber mischief. Governments must take practical steps to minimize disruption in case of an attack. …More

July 23, 2007 | Germany Belongs in Afghanistan

GM Roper: If Germany expects US help in the future, it must stay the course in Afghanistan now. The Bundeswehr should carry its share of the coalition burden without complaint as part of OEF. …More

July 20, 2007 | Germany Should Reconsider Position in Afghanistan

Niels Annen: I question the sustainability of Operation Enduring Freedom. And I see deteriorating coordination between ISAF and OEF and asks whether it is time to choose between the two. …More

July 16, 2007 | The Case for German-Polish Rapprochement

Wess Mitchell: The growing rift between Germany and Poland could do damage to US and European interests. Three postwar principles could help to repair relations. …More

July 3, 2007 | Kosovo: The Next Transatlantic Clash?

Ulf Gartzke: I warn of a looming “nightmare scenario” when EU member states could split from the US and each other over independent status for Kosovo. Results from the latest Bush-Putin summit could raise the stakes. …More

June 21, 2007 | Dr. Isaac Kfir: Pakistan in a Pressure Cooker

Dr. Isaac Kfir, researcher at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, examines threats to the Pakistani state and international implications relating to Pakistan’s role in the war on terror. Islamic, …More

June 21, 2007 | Pakistan Must Seek Unity in the Face of Extremism

Anatol Lieven: The political stakes in Pakistan are the highest in 40 years. It is time to create a new, firmer and more institutionalized civilian-military relationship. …More

June 4, 2007 | Turkey Struggles with the Nature of their Democracy, reports Robert Ruby

There is growing doubt among Turks that democracy can thrive within their country, reports Robert Ruby of the Pew Research Center. Pew Global Attitudes surveys indicate that, in conjunction with recent …More

June 4, 2007 | Withdrawing German Troops Could Destabilize Northern Afghanistan

Karsten Voigt: Shifting German troops out of the north of Afghanistan would be detrimental to the country. The troops should stay with their original mission, as they are providing significant support to the allied forces. …More

May 31, 2007 | Energy: EU Should Toughen Up On Russia

The looming Russian gas deficits demand a readjustment of the European energy policy, argue Alan Riley and Frank Umbach in the current global edition of Internationale Politik. Riley, a fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies in …More

May 30, 2007 | Merkel's Russian Moment is Now

Bastian Giegerich and Raffaello Pantucci: We press Angela Merkel to push through the recent gridlock in EU-Russia relations. Merkel should use the end of her EU presidency to adopt a unified and robust stance towards Russia, one more in line with the concerns of former Soviet satellites who now represent the EU’s eastern borders. …More

May 18, 2007 | Human Rights Must Be Addressed at EU-Russia Summit

Günter Nooke: I demand that the EU use stronger language towards Russia as regards the persistent erosion of human rights in the country. The unresolved politically motivated murders, discrimination of minorities and excessive police violence against peaceful protesters in the country cannot go unmentioned at today’s EU-Russia summit. …More

May 16, 2007 | The Russia Conundrum: EU