Global Challenges
Energy Security
A recent Ipsos Mori poll suggests a gradual loss of interest in the issue of climate change. ++ The specter of recession intensifies political pressure to abandon green policies. ++ Governments try to save the economy and the planet at …More
India’s domestic political squabbles are hindering its nuclear program with the US. ++ Afraid that scrupulous international monitoring would undermine India’s traditionally independent foreign policy, the Communist …More
The global energy summit meeting in Jidda (Saudi Arabia) had no easing effect on skyrocketing oil prices. ++ The oil exporting countries did not promise to increase oil output as only Saudi Arabia disposes of free capacities. ++ Yet the major …More
Reducing the West’s dependence on fossil fuels from Russia and the Middle East requires lowering reliance on this type of energy altogether. ++ Many governments are “doing their utmost to increase and subsidize supplies” but this is not …More
Ryan R. Miller: The belief Russia will help the West ease tensions with Iran is wishful thinking. A compliant Iran would be Gazprom’s biggest competitor. Washington should offer the Mullahs EU energy markets in exchange for concessions on the nuclear issue and thus reduce European dependence on Russian energy. …More
Satisfying a UN request, Saudi Arabia has agreed to pump more oil. ++ Not so long ago, the Sheik would not open up the faucet for Bush. ++ The fact that if oil becomes unaffordable, markets will erode and customers will turn to alternatives, is the …More
John McCain intends to subsidize domestic drilling and cut taxes to “free” the US of its dependence on foreign oil. ++ However, the basic rules of microeconomics doom this popular yet cynical energy policy to failure. ++ American …More
In the 80s Ronald Reagan warned Europe about becoming dependent on Russian energy. ++ With Gazprom supplying over 40 percent of Germany’s natural gas, this prediction is becoming a reality. ++ A question for the future, is …More
The 4th China-US Economic Dialogue will be held in the US this week. ++ The US and China can only win when cooperating in the energy and environment sector. ++ Chinese officials state they are working on reducing energy consumption …More
Jens F. Laurson and George A. Pieler: NATO is trying to expand its military wing to more countries, which used to be “the enemy,” in its effort to secure its future. However, Europe’s reliance on imported oil should be considered before alienating exporters like Russia in the attempt of reinventing NATO’s aging alliance. …More
Bush is moving toward helping the Saudis develop a nuclear program under the guise of energy security. ++ Considering that Saudi Arabia bathes in oil and basks in sunlight, something is missing. ++ Adding a counterweight to …More
The future world energy order will have China, India, and Middle Eastern countries rather than OECD countries at its helm. ++ Conventional oil is likely to peak soon, and unconventional oil will then play an important role. ++ Since global oil …More
When “greenies” sing the praise of high oil prices, perhaps they are praying to a false god. ++ Science is yet to produce hard evidence for climate change. ++ Emissions reduction lobbyists are ridden with corruption, and left leaning …More
Sparked by a recent Russian territory claim at the North Pole, a meeting has been called this week in Greenland over the future of the Arctic. ++ In the midst of a decade old rivalry, the US, Canada, Russia, Norway and Denmark have a huge …More
In the current discussion about the response to high fuel prices one point was missed: the world is producing one barrel of oil for every three we consume. ++ Although the price of petrol has increased by 4.7% a year, in real terms the price …More
Michael T. Klare: When the Cold War ended, it was generally assumed that the US would henceforth enjoy unchallenged preponderance. But today, military superiority no longer constitutes the decisive determinant of global paramountcy: energy has acquired unexpectedly vast significance. …More
There are three factors underlying the current rise in oil prices: rising global demand, increased costs for oil producers, and the relatively short time span in which supply has yet to adapt to these increased pressures. ++ Timely and …More
In a series of recent talks, poignantly described as “bad dates,” Russian President Medvedev and Chinese President Hu Jintao were divided on issues concerning missile defense and energy resources. ++ Ready to elide …More
High oil prices are tied to a weak US dollar. ++ The single-currency pricing of the oil market means that in the long run, a weak dollar reduces production while simultaneously increasing consumption. ++ This increase in demand …More
J. F. Laurson & G. A. Pieler: Biofuels may be one of the dumber of the grand, well intentioned ideas of this decade. Yet they are here to stay, not just because of the farm communities in Brazil, Europe, and the US, but because of the Zeitgeist that says source-diversification is the Holy Grail of energy policy. …More
US Federal Reserve officials continue to insist that recent price increases have almost nothing to do with monetary policy. ++ Yet their claim that only global supply and demand for corn and oil are responsible for the soaring of …More
Iran, which is the OPEC’s second’s largest exporter, has enough natural gas to alleviate Western Europe’s uncomfortable reliance on Russia’s energy exports. ++ Disputes over pipelines, political blocking, and …More
China’s recent need for energy resources has accelerated at an alarming rate. ++ US envoy to the Paris-based International Energy Association (IEA), Daniel S. Sullivan, maintains that China and India must join international …More
Richard G. Lugar: We must forge a more productive relationship with Russia. The absence of a collective energy security strategy and the lack of supply diversification will lead to greater fragmentation among European nations and across the Atlantic. …More
Oil prices keep setting records and many believe global oil production will soon peak. ++ American dependence on oil and the habit of driving large, gas-guzzling cars and living in suburbs without public transportation access will develop into a …More
Marek Swierczynski: One year since Poland launched key energy initiative that would decrease Central Europe’s fuel dependence from Russia, its results are less than impressive. But still declarations and documents seem much easier to prepare than pipelines, and soon new ones are to follow. …More
Growing oil prices and diminishing supplies of natural resources increasingly give rise to doubts regarding the long-term stability of an economy that relies on fossil fuels. The underlying assumption of pessimistic analyses based on the “peak …More
Despite hopes for change in the West, the new Russian president is hardly going to initiate a new foreign policy. ++ While Medvedev’s liberal instincts are debatable, the forces arrayed around and against him remained the same. ++ …More
Surprisingly, the US is the world’s third-largest oil producer, with potential to more than double its current output. ++ In addition, all three presidential candidates preach for “energy independence.” ++ So why does the …More
Marek Swierczynski: Greece and Russia signed an agreement to build the southern branch of the South Stream natural gas pipeline. President Putin’s last victory hardens Gazprom’s grip on Europe and makes any energy diversification projects more difficult. Unless the EU looks at the map and acts. …More
David Francis: Why is everyone outside of Germany worried about Nord Stream, while people in Germany seem okay with it? By looking at the United States, it’s apparent that it’s easier to ignore reliance on imported energy than it is to confront the problem. …More
The production of foodstuffs for biofuels was intended to reduce US energy dependency, mitigate climate change, and encourage crop-price stability. ++ Since they have proven highly inefficient, detrimental to the environment, and largely …More
Capitalism and luxury consumption are responsible for the world’s environmental problems, and the emphasis on biofuels has created the global food crisis. ++ The solution is to change economic models, give up excess consumption, …More
Hans-Ulrich Klose: Mistakes have been made on both the Russian and the Western sides. Russia should now be approached as an equal rather than looked down upon or scolded for non-democratic ways. …More
Ryan R. Miller: When major powers meet in Shanghai on April 16th to discuss Iran’s nuclear program, Washington should work with European capitals and leave the door open to greater EU-Iranian energy trade as a potential reward for Iranian good behavior. For post-communist Central Europe, disproportionately exposed to Russia’s energy monopoly, such a strategy could kill two birds with one stone. …More
Andreas Goldthau: The extent to which Russia’s resources are sustaining the country’s growth and influencing its foreign policy tends to be overstated. Having to adapt to domestic and geopolitical circumstances, and the rules of the global market considerably restricts the Kremlin’s room for maneuver. …More
London’s goal to become the first city with streets illuminated by LED’s indicates a promising trend towards green lighting technology. ++ Indian cities should pay more attention to LED lighting. ++ Through LEDs India could “leapfrog the ‘dirty’ phase …More
Europe needs Russia for its oil and natural gas and Russia needs Europe for revenue from these resources. ++ This reciprocal relationship explains Europe’s opposition to granting Ukraine and Georgia NATO membership. ++ The issue of energy security is one of the few issues where central and eastern European countries agree with the US and are in conflict with Germany and France.
The fear of several analysts that oil prices will rise if Brazil joins OPEC is not justified. ++ This would only happen if all OPEC states cut production by more than the amount Brazil would produce. ++ This is unlikely as OPEC states’ wealth mainly depends on oil revenues. ++ Examples are Venezuela and Saudi-Arabia. ++ History shows that lower prices are the more probable consequence.
Ryan R. Miller: Possible Polish-Iranian energy cooperation puts U.S. policy makers between a rock and a hard place, as America finds itself committed both to isolating the Islamic Republic and supporting Polish efforts to outflank Russia’s Gazprom. …More
Farmers are among the few beneficiaries of skyrocketing global food prices. ++ Governmental subsidies for producing biofuels combined with droughts and a growing demand for animal feed account for the high prices. ++ Food and energy issues are beginning to collide. ++ Speculation accounts for some of the price escalation, but as arable land becomes scarcer, prices are likely to remain high.
“Energy security” has become synonymous with less competition, political vulnerability and erosion of the rule of law. ++ With Dmitri Medvedev acting as both president and chairman of Gazprom, the Kremlin maintains an iron grip on the energy sector. ++ Brussels must demand transparency, restructuring, and market liberalization from Moscow in exchange for access to Europe’s downstream assets.
Ryan R. Miller: Does Chávez succeed in breaking the resource-curse for Venezuela? Can he keep his promise to spark off a revolution on behalf of Venezuela’s poor? And what are the long-term consequences of an oil-based policy for the freedom and security in a country such as Venezuela?
…More
Christian E. Rieck: A further proliferation of nuclear technology among ambitious middle powers is inevitable. Even though such a cooperation between Iran and Venezuela seems far-fetched at the moment, deepening ties amongst mounting international pressure could create an attractive nuclear possibility for them. …More
EU member states tend to act autonomously in their relations to Russia. ++ Implementation of EU treaty provisions on common security and foreign policy offers new prospects for EU-Russia cooperation and would be conducive to a partnership …More
The US president is leaving a difficult political legacy behind him in the Middle East. The civil war in Iraq is still smoldering, there are threats of complete destabilization in Lebanon and the Gaza strip, and Iran’s plans for …More
On both sides of the Atlantic, foreign policy analysts have convinced politicians that the West faces a severe energy security challenge, stating that energy policy has become high politics, turning energy security into hard security. But, as …More
Thomas Straubhaar: The oil price’s rise towards $100 per barrel is not a cause for concern over economic growth, but has many positive implications for the economy and the climate. …More
Dr. Gvosdev is a frequent commentator on US foreign policy and international relations, Russian and Eurasian affairs, and developments in the Middle East. He is also the author of six books, most recently the co-author of The …More
Russia’s turn away from democracy:
Despite Vladimir Putin’s quest to perpetuate his political influence, Brzezinski warns against perceiving him as an enemy. He emphasizes the need for the United States to discourage the …More
As Egypt declares its intentions to pursue nuclear energy, it joins other thirteen states in the Middle East with the same aim. Iran’s nuclear plans seem to be responsible for this troubling trend, writes Dan Murphy from the Christian Science …More
Christian E. Rieck: Western “rogue state” rhetoric is creating unlikely partnerships among the outcasts of the international community. The unity possible under the rogue state banner provides a welcome chance to mimic international legitimacy, and an opportunity to further erode democracy and consolidate domestic power—without Western admonitions to the contrary. …More
Background
The Energy Watch Group (EWG) initiated by German MP Hans-Josef Fell, is a group of independent scientists and experts who investigate sustainable concepts for global energy supply. The experts at EWG use …More
Transportation of energy resources was top of the agenda during a recent talk between the presidents of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, reports News Central Asia. Presidents Nazarbaev and Berdymuhamedov said their countries …More
FP lists the top most valuable disputed turfs that might just be worth a fight. The world was astonished by Russia’s recent claim to the arctic shelf, with potential for billions of dollars worth of oil …More
In July, the US Department of State announced a new arms deal for the Middle East that included $20 billion for the Saudis, ostensibly to promote stability in the region. Condoleezza Rice and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who rarely travel …More
F. William Engdahl: I take a critical look at last week’s Five Principles For US Energy Security from Stuart Butler and Kim Holmes. My counterproposals emphasize environmental and fiscal concerns, as well as historical perspective. …More
Stuart M. Butler: and Kim R. Holmes of the Heritage Foundation: We argue that US energy security demands a free market. Policy makers should encourage global economic participation by American businesses, trade with free democratic regimes, and diversification of fuel sources. …More
Alexandros Petersen: Russia’s recent Cold War-esque behavior is a wake-up call for the transatlantic alliance to overcome internal divisions and strengthen energy routes from the Caspian and Central Asia. …More
International disputes over West African oil — which represents about 10% of the world’s reserves — have been intensified by its easy accessibility, reports Stephanie Hanson of the Council of Foreign Relations. …More
Heiko Borchert and Karina Forster: Energy infrastructure security requires a serious military commitment. The EU should pool resources with NATO through joint research in security and technology, military cooperation with key energy partners such as Africa, and mutual education through exchange of lessons learned. …More
The looming Russian gas deficits demand a readjustment of the European energy policy, argue Alan Riley and Frank Umbach in the current global edition of Internationale Politik. Riley, a fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies in …More
Heiko Borchert and Karina Forster : We see hard power as integral to the preservation of energy infrastructure. EU-NATO cooperation is therefore key to preserving this vital element of energy security. …More
Higher engagement of the EU and the USA in the Black Sea zone could limit European dependence on Russian energy and bring stability to the region, writes Ronald D. Asmus of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. The Atlantic …More
In 2006, Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine and Georgia, indicating that Moscow is prepared to use energy resources to exert political power over Europe. Keith C. Smith of CSIS writes that, though European leaders initially showed …More
Engagement in the Caspian region is an effective way to improve transatlantic cooperation, says Richard Morningstar. As the current US Special Representative for the Caspian Region, Morningstar …More
Chatham House researchers John Mitchell and Glada Lahn advise that although production abroad by Asian national oil companies (ANOCs) is small right now, its relevance to global energy security could change if …More
|