Markus Kaim,
head of the research division European and Atlantic Security at the German Institute
for International and Security Affairs (SWP), is the editor for the book Great Powers and Regional Orders. The United
States and the Persian Gulf. As the title indicates, most of the included
essays focus on the influence of the US foreign policy on the Persian Gulf (PG),
but also intra-regional dynamics and the involvement of other states are
explored.
In the
preface, Kaim frames the relationship between the US policy and the regional
order. With reference to Barry Buzan and Ole Waver, he defines the PG as a
regional security complex, which is characterized by the balance of power
between different actors. Kaim writes that the parties remain in confrontation
with each other and intra-regional relations are widely dominated by "hard
power." Following Kaim's analysis, the PG states have not yet accepted common
rules of behavior, which is why cooperation between them is very limited. This
raises the question if the establishment and actions of the Gulf Cooperation
Council make any difference in the context of the regional integration.
Unfortunately, no chapter specifically discusses this question or the impact of
the distrustful atmosphere between the GCC states and Iran on regional security
issues. However, Kaim's appraisal that the US has an interest to improve the
quality of the regional order, thereby securing its long-term influence, is
surely right.
In addition
to this general concept of the US policy toward the PG, Steven Cook discusses
the US strategy to promote democratic reform in the Middle East. His key
question is whether the US is able to balance its short-term interests related
to energy security, counter-terrorism and the rebuilding of Iraq, which all
require the collaboration of the current Arab leaders of the PG, with its
long-term aim of the democratic transformation of the region. The dilemma is
obvious. Cook suggests that the promotion of reform and the maintenance of US
interests should not be seen as either-or propositions because the democratic
reform would be the most effective means to finally ensure US interests.
Moreover, the US has policy options such as the linkage of bilateral free trade
agreements with domestic reforms, which might accelerate the internal dynamics.
Nonetheless, from my point of view, it remains questionable if Washington would
use these methods when it comes to dealing with close allies as, e.g.,
Saudi-Arabia. Additionally, it is doubtful the US dependence on the PG oil
reserves would not hinder these policy options.
Stephan
Bland explores the role of another external actor, namely Russia, in his
contribution. According to his analysis, the Russian foreign policy toward the
PG is enmeshed in multiple contradictions. For instance, Russia strives for
partnership with the US on issues of common concern, e.g., terrorism or the
Arab-Israeli conflict. On the other hand, it works against American
unilateralism, which disregards Russian interests in the region. By promoting
multipolarity as an alternative to the US dominated order, Russia seeks to
constrain American policy. In Blank's view, Anti-Americanism is the strongest
motive of the Russian foreign policy in the Gulf and the Middle East.
Kaim also
discusses the challenge of the US-Russian rivalry in the PG which the next US
administration needs to face. In his opinion, the US should seek a dialogue
with Russia on matters of common concern and demonstrate to the Russian elites
that the cooperation with America can also be beneficial for Russia. At the
same time, following Kaim's proposals, Washington should bolster its ties with
pro-Western regimes in the PG and maintain its security umbrella in order to
prevent the emergence of an anti-American bloc.
Such an emergence does not seem
to be very likely to me, but the ruling elites of the Arab Gulf states have
indeed begun to question exclusive relationships of their states with the US.
Therefore, these states will start to act more independently of Washington in
the future and, in addition to the US, make room for other actors in the region.
Notwithstanding, it is hardly to imaginable that the GCC states which constitute the majority of the PG countries will turn
against the US in the close future.
Unfortunately, not every of the 15 essays can be mentioned. It is, however, noteworthy that most of the contributions connect an academic approach with a sober analyses and clear formulated policy proposals. This combination makes the book especially worth while.
Leonie Holthaus is a student of political science, German language and literature at the Philipps-University of Marburg. She used to be an intern at atlantic-community.org
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