July 12, 2007 |  6 comments |  Print this Article | E-Mail Your Research  

Think Tank Analysis: The Next US President: Democratic Foreign Policy

Casey S Butterfield: reveals what to expect on foreign policy from the US presidential hopefuls for 2008. In this installment, Nuland introduces the top Democratic contenders and finds that all of them promise to get the US out of Iraq—it’s just a question of how.

All the Democratic candidates pledge to withdraw troops if elected. The foreign policy differences between the three front-runners—Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama—boil down to how fast the drawdown will happen and how long the US will remain in the region afterward. The most effective means of distinguishing the three candidates from one another is by looking at their political histories.

Hillary Clinton
Clinton is still battling the public perception that she “played it safe” on Iraq. Though the junior senator from New York opposed the Bush administration’s handling of the war, proposed legislation on troop reduction, and created a comprehensive plan for bringing stability after troop withdrawal, she first voted to authorize military action in 2002. To some voters, Clinton’s initial approval indicates a tendency towards political calculation over substance. A closer look at her policy portfolio, however, shows she may consistently support interventionism and unilateralism.

She has defended her authorization of war by comparing it to her husband’s decision to intervene in the Balkans and it has been suggested that the campaign in Kosovo was heavily influenced by the (then) First Lady’s insistence. Should Hillary be elected to the White House, her intimate involvement in Bill Clinton’s eight-year presidency might mean a policy continuum linking to his interventionism. More concerning is that Hillary has yet to call her Iraq vote a mistake.

Clinton’s October 2006 remarks at the Council on Foreign Relations typify just how difficult it is to predict her executive foreign policy. She suggests that US “foreign policy must blend both idealism and realism in the service of American interests”—it is this very combination of championing national interest and overarching values that has made voters question where Clinton’s presidential foreign policy might bring America in the next decade.

John Edwards
As John Kerry’s former running mate in 2004, John Edwards is no stranger to this early stage of the campaign. Currently out of government, Edwards has proposed an Iraq plan that would withdraw all combat troops over 12 to 18 months. Though the former US Senator voted in favor of the 2002 war resolution, he has since called the decision a mistake.

Edwards has made a number of strong public statements against Russia’s stilted progress towards liberal democracy, and at the Council on Foreign Relations led a Task Force report with former Republican vice presidential nominee Jack Kemp entitled “Russia’s Wrong Direction: What the United States Can and Should Do.” General policy suggestions from Edwards point to the continuing sense of US global mission in Russia, which begs the question of how far Edwards is willing to go to promote democracy. He has called, for instance, for the “creation of a 10,000-member reserve corps to help stabilize troubled nations.” At the very least, his sense of American responsibility to the world could manifest as humanitarian engagement in Sudan and Uganda, which he visited in 2006 with the International Rescue Committee aid organization.

Barack Obama
Obama’s foreign policy has been called “Clintonian” by The Economist. The reference relates primarily to his take on American moral leadership—a Clinton throwback indeed, but with an eye toward the very current mistakes in Iraq. Obama’s lengthy article in the recent edition of Foreign Affairs outlines how these principles apply to his campaign platform.

The current US Senator is the only front-runner in the Democratic primary field who was not in federal government during the lead-up to the war in Iraq. This outsider status let him speak to the concerns of his local constituency in the Illinois State Senate rather than to Washington political sphere. His strong opposition and unwavering criticism of the Bush Administration’s policies in Iraq have added an element of consistency to his foreign policy that Clinton and Edwards do not have. Obama’s recommendations for phased troop withdrawal are consistent with the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group and his plan for regional stability involves close cooperation with regional leaders.

Senator Obama’s leadership in the securing, monitoring and destruction of nuclear weapons has been a focus of his time in the US Senate. Obama has worked closely with Republican Senator Richard Lugar in creating the Lugar-Obama nonproliferation initiative;, enacted this year. American troop withdrawal from Iraq does not detract from Obama’s message that America’s military must remain strong in order to be effective. He, like many of his democratic colleagues, has called for a restructuring of the US military and a continuing outward-looking approach to American policies.


Author’s note: Al Gore is currently getting higher numbers than Edwards in a number of public opinion polls. He was only excluded from the profiles because he has not publicly expressed interest in candidacy.

Members of the Atlantic Community, who do you support? Which of these Democratic candidates can do the most for America, for transatlantic relations, for the world? Tell us what you think below! You can also vote on your preferred candidate in the poll on the right.

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Christina  Dege

July 12, 2007

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Interesting piece. As the author points out - despite cries for a troop withdrawl from Iraq - the democratic agenda for US foreign policy put forth by these three candidates remains engaging. While protectionist rhetoric has been prevelant in US discussions of international economic policies, we are far from truly isolationist policies in US-foreign relations.

This is a good thing. A healthy amount of introspection and critical reflection is necessary after the disaster in Iraq, but US FP should support both the values of liberty and democracy and the material interests of the nation.

I wonder, however, if the Nov 2008 election will be a foreign policy election. With the Republican candidates skillfully manouvering themselves away from Bush, I think it is going to be less of a referendum on the handling of the Iraq War and more forward looking. But, then again it's hard to judge a year and a half out.
 
Roman  Humbertus

July 12, 2007

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I think you raise an interesting point: Republican candidates _are_ doing their best to draw distinction between themselves and Bush. However, its also interesting to note that they all support continued combat engagement in Iraq. Fred Thompson, who is a full-on supporter of Bush Administration foreign policy, has gained considerable ground in the recent past. Social conservative + foreign policy hawk = republican base support in the US, and there's no denying it.

Whats most interesting to me is that all republican front runners support an unpopular war on the conventional wisdom that the above equation will continue to persist. If a republican candidate achieves the nomination with support for the war in Iraq as a main component of his platform, the election will certainly turn into a referendum on Iraq, and one that the Republicans will surely lose. A referendum on the Bush Administration will not take place because Bush isnt running for reelection, and the Clinton v. Bush I domestic agenda election your looking for most likely won't happen.
 
Lyron  Bennett

July 13, 2007

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A nice assessment of the overall situation. I wish though that the author had been able to give us more on how he feels that the three major players compare to one another. My guess is that Mr. Nuland would like to point out that while Mr. Edwards and Mr. Obama share certain attributes with Ms. Clinton, one they do not share is a wealth of international experience. She is, easily, the candidate with the most foreign policy and, frankly, military experience.

I did, also, want to point out that Mr. Nuland, or his editor, clearly has an opinion about the matter of Mrs. Clinton (and her husbands) interventionism: "Should Hillary be elected to the White House, her intimate involvement in Bill Clinton’s eight-year presidency might mean a policy continuum linking to his interventionism. More concerning is that Hillary has yet to call her Iraq vote a mistake." More concerning than her interventionism is her inability to say she is sorry? You might be forgetting that you are dealing with a master craftsman who is married to one of the best pure politicians of the last 50 years.

There is no doubt in my mind that Ms. Clinton will wait, until the perfect moment, before she says that she made a mistake, and then when she looks, perhaps sheepishly, into the camera and says that she wishes she had done better for the American people, when she admits, probably for the first time in her campaign, that she has made a mistake and that she, like the rest of us, is vulnerable to human error, that will be the most important moment to date in the campaign of the woman who would be the first female President. Will she look strong enough to be President? Will we all be relieved that unlike our current President she can say she was wrong and move on? Who knows, but it will happen. I am not saying that people are all this shallow, just the American voter.

And, just to toss this out there, I would hope the author might right about the most interesting candidate that is going to run. The one that is yet to be talked about but that has all the necessary items in place. I speak, of course, of Mayor Bloomberg. Mr. Nuland, I recommend that for your next article.
 
Will  Nuland

July 16, 2007

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Mr. Bennett,

I appreciate your close reading of the article and am glad you enjoyed the profiles. In response to your comments on the anti-Hillary or anti-war bias (to which you seem to be pointing): As I'm sure you're well aware of, it remains a challenge to appear entirely objective when politics are involved - perhaps "concerning" was a poor choice that invited implication beyond what I was intending to suggest. Originally, the two sentences you're referring to read:

"Intimate involvement in Bill Clinton’s eight year presidency indeed represents exposure to the executive branch that no other candidate can claim, and has bolstered the image of her candidacy as an inevitable step towards a Clinton legacy in the White House. But it also causes concern given Bill’s own tendency towards intervention. More instrumental to this concern, however, is that Hillary still maintains that voting to authorize operations in Iraq was not a mistake."

However, I was a bit long-winded and the sentences needed to be cut to fit our editorial style. I hope this clears up your first concern. I too am interested in seeing what all of Hillary's political coaching will amount to when the bright lights are truly shining on her, but am doubtful that her political savvy comes anywhere near her husband's.

Thanks for your second observation as well. The Bloomberg situation is far more compelling that any Perot or Nader party crashing that we've seen in the recent past and his registration as an Independent makes the likelihood of candidacy seem pretty high. I hope to include him in a future piece should he become relevant. At this point its a little early to devote space to him on this forum, but I predict that we'll get there.

Thanks for the words.

Will Nuland
 
Michael John Williams

July 16, 2007

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A nice recap of the positions of the top candidates, but Will think you could be a bit more savage, noting the real lack of any great ideas on either side. The Dems have no big ideas about where the US should lead the world, they fail to appreciate the implications of failure in Iraq and rather than discussing what to do in the Middle East, everyone is engaged in a non-debate about who voted for the war when and would they not change their vote. It is absurd really and they should be ashamed. The world needs some American leadership and the candidates really ought to seize the opportunity to sketch out some real policies. A whole host of issues such as UN reform, the war in Afghanistan, climate change, the growing swell of radical Islam, and poverty in Africa all need attention. The slogan for this election should be 'it’s about policy stupid' where are the policies?!
 
Lyron  Bennett

July 16, 2007

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A fine reply Mr. Nuland and you are, obviously, well versed on the subject (as I would imagine anyone writing here to be). Your comments, as they were originally, might have been a bit too long winded but it is actually a deeper and more interesting point than what got printed. You actually hit the nail right on the head with this one word Mr. Nuland: inevitable. So much of the posturing in this incredibly early and contentious primary season is about building inevitability as a candidate. The distinguished gentleman from Arizona will inevitably lose his temper, Mr. Giuliani inevitably marries every fourth year, Mr. Edwards inevitably gets too many $400 hair cuts but no one is establishing themselves as the inevitable candidate, the one destined to win from the outset. Inevitability is costly though and both Obama and Clinton will need every penny of the 34 million and 33 million they have in their banks. But can anyone on either side of the aisle actually succeed in doing this?


Perhaps you would like to touch on this: politicians are always talking about the future, about the "new way", about their ability to make history, but there are two people who could run together who would represent just that...Clinton and Obama. Would ANY Republican ticket paired against them be able to withstand the clear fact that a vote for them is a vote for the status quo while a vote for Clinton/Obama would be a vote for history? I don't know, but I would love to hear what you think.

Sincerely,
Lyron Bennett
 

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