This MA thesis, entitled Understanding & Analysing Iran’s Nuclear Intentions – Testing Scott Sagan’s Argument of "Why do States build Nuclear Weapons", focuses on three questions: firstly, does Iran want to build nuclear weapons; secondly, does Iran pose a threat to ‘Western’ interests or security; and thirdly, does Sagan’s argument serve as a helpful tool in analyzing a given state’s nuclear intentions.
This project outlines Sagan’s theoretical approach briefly, before deriving hypotheses and applying the model to the case of Iran. Sagan offers three analytical categories: the ‘security model’, the 'domestic politics model’, and the ‘norm model’ to assess a state’s nuclear intention. In addition, this work provides a brief survey of technical aspects and the current status of Iran’s civil nuclear and military missile programs. A brief history shows political developments in Iran up until June 2008.
Sagan’s approach serves as a helpful tool in assessing the nuclear intentions of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Although the models provide a good analytical framework, it is difficult to provide prognoses, rather than explanations, in retrospect. Nevertheless, it is possible to conclude that Iran does not pose an immediate threat to US and European security. At the same time, Iran’s case does provide plenty of cause for concern, especially regarding the future of nuclear non-proliferation and regional security. This thesis was written for the University of Lancaster (UK).
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December 18, 2008
henelito a. sevilla, jr.
It's always facinating to talk about hard politics especially when someone is really into it. But the world now is being divided into many ideas and praticalities as to how, when and where to apply certain strategy or policy. And of course whether or not such action is responsive to the current norms.
With regards to Iran's nuclear ambition as I categorically mentioned many times, is not an issue of actual application but its is an issue of how potential Iran in building those nuclear bombs or how potential Iran in changing this power plant capability into a nuclear bomb. I basically argue that Iran doe not pose a threat to the European Interests nor with the American interests in the persian Gulf.
The old passioned argument that says having nuclear arsenal can prevent other aggressors to invade this country still lingers in the minds and rationality of the current Iranian political elites. However, it does not necessarily transform into a potential "threat" against the western interests. This display of capability is just a sort of political desplay of ability to have the actor's legitimacy and power capability to be recognized and respected by other powers in the International community. In addition, Iran's political elites clearly understood the importance of this political mechanic as necessary for the survival of the Islamic regime. Beside the current administration of President Ahmad Nejad is making all possible ways to realize this program in order also to signal to local opponents that under his administration all things that President Khatami and Rafsanjani had not been done would be successfully done.
Hence, this issue has to be analyze in the contexts of the Iranian domestic politics, regional security, interdependency and internationa power politics.