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Are Conditions Improving In Iraq?

Have conditions in Iraq improved since troop numbers went up? We look at two different viewpoints on this issue, one from embedded journalists on an eight-day stay, the other from members of the 82nd Airborne Division, the key actors in the surge.

But first, why not check out General Petraeus’ opinions on troop withdrawal which he expressed during the surge report to the US House of Representatives:






At the end of July, Michael E. O’Hanlon and Kenneth M. Pollack of the Brookings Institution followed up an eight-day tour of Iraq with an optimistic op-ed in the New York Times. Their positive findings were welcomed by the right and the Bush Administration. A group of servicemen who spent a year fighting on Iraqi frontlines put their names to a response, one which downplays the rhetoric of success and justification to stay the course. With the “surge” results looking much more lukewarm than anticipated, the pressure to redeploy US troops has only become stronger.

• Improved Morale: The authors claim that troop buildup has boosted morale among US ground forces. Soldiers are confident in the leadership of General David Petraeus, top US commander in Iraq.
• Iraqis Taking Control: Some of the most ethnically diverse regions of the country no longer require such numerous US troops. Responsibility is being handed over to Iraqi army and police recruits. The American high command believes that as long as US forces remain in Iraq, more than 75% of the members of the Iraq Army can be considered reliable partners.
• United Against al-Qaeda: Tribal leaders and militias are linking up with US forces against common enemies, and Pollack and O’Hanlon explain that this is leaving al-Qaeda and other extremists with fewer allies. Some of the most dangerous streets of Baghdad are finally safe for journalists.
• Reconstruction: Locals are playing a greater role in construction efforts as a result of the coalition’s new Embedded Provincial Reconstruction Teams and additional boots on the ground. Small-scale projects are spurring economic growth and generating greater collaboration between local leaders and businesspeople.
• Local Empowerment: Pollack and O’Hanlon emphasize the progress made in redistributing power to local governments. In many areas this looks to be happening naturally, as locally organized police forces more in sync with sectarian and ethnic demographics take control of areas. With authority becoming increasingly decentralized, these groups can better exercise their own resources and local knowledge to bring about a higher level of normalcy at the community level.

• Uncertain Trust: There is a great deal of uncertainty about the authenticity of any new alliances formed. Questionable allies are expected to go up against determined enemies, when in many cases the two had previously fought alongside one another. Local Iraqi civilians fear reporting any collaboration between Iraqi soldiers and insurgents, and will only speak up after US casualties have already occurred. In such an atmosphere, it makes no sense to talk of morale.
• Same Old Enemies: These military veterans cite a number of failures in other spheres of Iraqi society. The fight against al-Qaeda has broadened now that armed bands of Sunnis are aligning with US forces. The division of forces along sectarian lines is a potential problem if the US is to ever withdraw from the country.
• Impotent Frustration: These authors know the nature of urban war and the limitations of the roles that they play. The need to win over hearts and minds makes it difficult to implement tactics that many troops consider appropriate given their superior strength.
• House of Cards: The fragile situation of the Iraqi government has created a daunting sense of confusion and despair, with little hope for sustained security anytime in the immediate future. Because military operations are continuing, Iraqi leaders are putting off making long-term political agreements until after the dust settles.
• Prolonging the Agony: The US attempt to win over all stakeholders in the Iraqi civil wars may only delay hopes of ending the bloodshed. Reconciliation will occur on Iraqi terms and not according to outside benchmarks. Peace must be a home-grown commodity, one which will result in some winners, but many losers too.

Editor’s Note: Since this article was published, two of the authors mentioned above have died in Iraq. Omar Mora and Yance T. Gray were killed on September 10 when their vehicle overturned in Baghdad.

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