Putinism: Good or Bad for the West?

With the world’s attention now focusing on the unpredictable outcome of the American elections, it is easy to forget about their more predictable, but equally important equivalent in Russia. Recently named Time's "Person of the Year," President Vladimir Putin cannot stand for the presidential elections in March for constitutional reasons. Nevertheless, it is almost certain that Putin’s chosen candidate, Dmitry Medvedev, will be elected and that Putin will remain a key figure in Russian politics when he steps down to become prime minister. Putin’s popularity rating within Russia of around 70 percent shows that most Russians support the continuation of a Putin based government. But what will its implications be for the West? Is Russian stability advantageous for the United States and EU countries or would a new style of governance be better for Russian-Western relations?

PRO:

• Political Stability
  From a foreign perspective, Putin retaining power means a certain degree of stability. In contrast to the chaos of the post-Soviet Yeltsin years, Putin’s Russia is relatively calm. Russians feel themselves to be safer, more secure and better off than in the 90s and many consider that to be a result of Putin’s leadership. Putin also has good intentions for the future of Russia, like fighting corruption, a serious restricting factor for both foreign and Russian businesses. Although he hasn’t had a very good track record on this issue in the past, Putin’s authoritative leadership may, in the long run, be the only solution to this problem. To a certain extent, the global community knows what to expect from Putin and though they may not be able to ‘look into his soul,’ as President Bush once claimed to do, his past actions can certainly be used as an indicator of what path Russia may follow in the years to come.

• Economic Stability
  Mainly as a result of the rising oil prices, the Russian economy has grown by 6.7 percent since Putin became president and the country has paid off foreign debt that once neared $200 billion. Workers' salaries have more than doubled since 2003. Nevertheless, rising inflation, a large income gap and persistent poverty still prevail and Russia needs the stable leadership which Putin provides to tackle these problems. A big part of Putin's next stage for Russia is also to develop the hugely lacking infrastructure of the country. This, combined with a growing and stable economy will create potential business opportunities for Western companies.

• Third Power Base
  Putin’s Russia acts as a counter-weight to the other global powers. These days, Russia views itself as a world player and reacts badly when it thinks that its opinion is not being considered, or being undermined by other countries. Many believe that Russia has recently thrown its weight around in international politics just to show it can. Russia opposed Kosovo’s independence to show that a strong Russia has the ability to restrict the actions of the major super powers. Recent deals with North Korea, the Middle East and Iran reveal that Russia is keen to offer alternatives to America’s waning influence. If commodity prices remain high and the Russian economy grows even further, we may see the rise of an even more assertive Russia. This has the advantage of acting as a control against over-exertive American foreign policy.

CON:

• Backtracking on Democracy
  In the years since the beginning of Putin’s presidency, Russia has seen a serious backtracking in democracy. This is an issue which has and will continue to lead to conflicts and tensions between Russia and the West. The Kremlin now controls all of Russia’s media outlets and there have been 21 murders of journalists since 2000. Putin promulgated a law in his second term giving the state means to harass, weaken, and close down NGOs considered too political. Political opposition itself has become almost non-existent. If Putin retains his power base in Russia, this backtracking on democracy is likely to continue and make relations with the pro-democracy Western powers increasingly more difficult.

• Increasingly Anti-Western Sentiment
  At his eighth annual address to parliament in April 2007, Putin attacked unnamed foreign political influences in Russian politics. This was just a continuation of Russia’s increasingly anti-Western agenda which has grown along with the economy and has so far affected relations with both the United States and Britain, and has attempted to hinder pro-Western aspirations in former USSR countries. The threat on February 12th to target missiles at Ukraine, if the country joined NATO, is an extreme example of this. Putin’s state controlled press is being used as a vehicle for promoting anti-Western ideas by increasingly asserting Russian nationalism and regained pride from Russian assertiveness. The recent appointment of Dmitry Rogozin, a former head of the anti-immigration Russian Motherland party as Russia’s new ambassador to NATO is a further indication of Russia’s growing nationalism and the problems it may cause.

• Corruption
  During Putin’s eight year presidency there has been a fall in Russia's international rankings for economic competitiveness, business friendliness, and transparency. In 2006 Russia was ranked 121st out of 163 countries on corruption, 62nd out of 125 on the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Index, and 96th out of 175 on The World Bank's 2006 "ease of doing business" index. These statistics show that, despite the steady growth of the Russian economy, corruption and increasing state control are hindering potential foreign investment in Russia and making the day to day running of existing foreign companies extremely difficult.

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Natasha Doff is a student of Russian and German at the University of Bristol and will be spending the next six months working for an NGO in Russia after her internship with the Atlantic Community.

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