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Time to Put Pressure on Pakistan

The military regime in Pakistan is responsible for the escalation of terror in Kashmir, the growth of international jihad extremism and the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, says Grare. By supporting and training those very forces which NATO is currently fighting, Islamabad’s long-term aim is to force the West to accept its military government as a necessary evil in the fight against radical Islam.

So far, the US has refrained from exerting external pressure on Pervez Musharraf, who toppled the deocratically elected government in 1999, even though he has routinely gone against the Pakistani constitution. Two prominent violations include his dual appointment as president and army chief and his suspension of Pakistan’s chief justice. Corruption remains widespread, and has worsened under Musharraf’s tenure. Of the 10 billion dollars of assistance which Pakistan has received since 9/11, only 900 million has been spent on development, while the rest has been consumed by the military.

Recommended Policy Changes

1. Because the existing military regime is the root of the problem, Pakistan should be pressured to return to the civilian-led government stipulated in its constitution. The US can promote further democratic developments in Pakistan by ceasing to campaign against political Islamist parties there. A separation of the military and political functionalities of the presidency could also mean that the US could end up dealing with a democratic government in future which enjoys public support.
2. The US and other countries should set clear cooperation standards for Pakistan and withhold financial aid if these are not met. Such standards would include the elimination of all domestic terrorist infrastructure and the prohibition of military cooperation with the Taliban, the latter to preclude further peace agreements like that reached with tribal Talib in northern Pakistan in 2006.
3. If the first two policies are not sufficient to alter Islamabad’s behavior, sanctions which target the military elite and not the general population should be imposed. This has successfully worked in the past, especially when withholding weapons from the military.

How It Could Backfire
Any new US stance on Pakistan could set off two major booby traps:

1. The US is unlikely to be able to alter existing policy without spurring at least short-term terrorism in Afghanistan and/or northern Pakistan. A US threat to disengage from Pakistan’s military government or impose sanctions would leave Islamabad with less incentive to crack down on terrorist groups. The shift in enforcement could be interpreted among insurgents, particularly the Taliban, as a victory against the West.
2. The links between the US and Pakistani intelligence agencies are quite tight, as is the cooperation between both countries’ defense ministries. A change in policy could end long-established cooperative efforts such as the routine handover of Taliban fighters to Afghan officials, the deployment of 80,000 Pakistani troops to the country’s Western border to fight the Taliban, and aid to CIA operations hunting terrorist suspects on Pakistani territory who are wanted by the US.

The People’s Responsibility
All of Grare’s policy recommendations are in the service of long-term, ambitious goals that will ultimately depend on the existence of a vibrant civilian leadership to occupy the “political space” they will create. Any increase in action by civil society groups and politically active individuals must originate from the Pakistani society itself. The protests against the suspension of the Chief Justice, led by lawyers all over the country, are an encouraging sign. But Pakistan still has a long way to go, as these demonstrations then turned violent, leaving hundreds dead—not least because of fierce reaction by the police and military.


The summary above was prepared from the Carnegie Endowment Report by visiting scholar Frederic Grare, published in July 2007. A German version of this summary is available as a Global Must-Readlink from the Atlantic Initiative.

Rethinking Western Strategies toward Pakistan: An Action Agenda for the United States and Europe


Related Materials from the Atlantic Community

• Anatol Lieven argues Pakistan Must Seek Unity in the Face of Extremism
• Dr. Isaac Kfir: Pakistan in a Pressure Cooker
• Aryn Baker on the Dangerous Rise of Islamist Power in Pakistan

Prepared by Niklas Keller