Tourism and Climate Change: The Guilty Gain
Philipp Ehmer | Deutsche Bank Research | April 2008
International tourism is undergoing very rapid changes. New travelling habits, an increased awareness of price, short notice and short term holidays - and the wish for more flexibility and individuality as well as rising energy prices are constantly creating new challenges for the tourism industry. Unpredictable incidents have added to this: terrorist attacks (New York, Bali, Djerbra, Morocco, Egypt, Istanbul, Madrid, London), risks of epidemics (SARS), and regional wars. However in the future, one factor in particular will affect the tourist industry in the long term: climate change.
Deutsche Bank Research has studied the effects of climate change on the stream of tourists worldwide until 2030. Outcome: The North wins, the South loses. Especially states which are greatly dependent on tourism will be the ones facing the effects of climate change. In Europe, the countries concerned would for instance be Malta, Cyprus or Spain, in Asia Thailand and Malaysia, and in Africa Tunisia and Morocco. If tourists stop going there, the economic consequences would be disastrous. Even poor states such as Tanzania, Kenya or the Caribbean countries that have placed a great deal of hope in tourism for their own development will be concerned by this. The North South divide will also be a regional phenomenon. In Europe, Denmark, the Benelux countries and Germany should belong to the winners which will not fall out of favour with holidaymakers, while especially Mediterranean countries will attract fewer tourists due to the high temperatures and the lack of water. Outside Europe, only Canada, New Zealand and the USA will benefit from climate change. The remaining countries will rather experience a loss of attractiveness in the eyes of tourists.
The tourism industry has limited options. The only existing possibilities are in the area of technological developments able to curb climate change. The best example would be higher energy efficiency in the field of transportation. Overall however, the global tourist industry remains a growing market even if climate change holds more risks than promises. The bitter acknowledgement of the study is that precisely the worse polluters in the North, which can be held responsible for the harmful emissions happen to be those which will benefit the most from climate change. In contrast, the states of the southern hemisphere, releasing considerably less emissions, will particularly suffer from the consequences of this development. The tourism industry is yet another area that demonstrates this.
This summary was prepared by the Atlantic Community editorial team from "Climate Change and Tourism: Where will the journey lead?" published here in Deutsche Bank Research in April 2008.
Related materials from the Atlantic Community:
- Axel Berg: High Hopes for an US-EU led International Climate Change Policy
- J. F. Laurson & G. A. Pieler: Biofuel for Thought
- Sascha Müller-Kraenner: After Bali: A Change in Climate Change Leadership
Mon, Jun 16th 2008, 12:44
Unregistered User
One can't help quoting Bertrand Russel in the matter. In his famous book Sceptical Essays, the Great philosopher under the caption 'Is Science superstitious", writes, " On the other hand, Greek Tragedy contributed the idea of Fate, which facilitated the view that events are rendered necessary ny natural laws." Hope, however, is eternal to human beings and it has an Audacity as per Obama!