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Anatol Lieven: NATO might fail in Afghanistan. Hopes for democracy, development, and progress in Afghanistan are already dead. Even though the situation seems hopeless, the West can and should prevent further deterioration.
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Péter Marton: Afghanistan needs an external security guarantee for the long term. NATO should provide that guarantee against clashing external influence-seeking endeavours, but it can only do so it if it sheds its geopolitical identity for the Afghan mission. That is how a neutral strategic identity could be secured for Afghanistan.
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James Jones: While NATO forces are needed in Afghanistan, the real focus should be on fighting narcotics, building up an effective judicial system, increasing Afghan police capabilities, empowering a single individual to represent the international community, and acknowledging regional difficulties.
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T. Noetzel & B. Schreer: Despite a theoretically clear strategy, NATO is both politically and militarily ill-prepared to execute the required counter-insurgency strategy in Afghanistan. An Afghan disaster might not be a death sentence for the Alliance, but would certainly have major repercussions.
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Marek Swierczynski: NATO’s decision to delay a major enlargement should only be viewed in a positive light if it results in better management of the Afghan mission, and the Alliance keeps up the pace to relaunch negotiations with Ukraine and Georgia.
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Rüdiger Lentz: Increasing debates within the Alliance about the inequity of risk- and burden-sharing among its members overshadow the upcoming summit in Bucharest. Especially, the Germans are being pressured by Washington and their Western allies to send more fighting troops to Afghanistan.
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Wess Mitchell: While the United States has been prodding the alliance’s second-tier members, newcomers have stepped up in Afghanistan.
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Uta Ermler: A comparison of statistics in road casualty to killed German soldiers in Afghanistan points out, that the increasing danger in the south should be no reason for the refusal of the German government to deploy troops in southern Afghanistan.
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Anna Nadgrodkiewicz: When in Washington, Tusk will need to address the role of Polish troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, the necessity of easing visa requirements, and the proposed missile defense shield. Most importantly, Tusk should use his visit to build name recognition and focus on issues important to Poland.
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Benjamin Lucas Schoo: Vote now on what prominent security related issue the governments on both sides of the Atlantic should focus their attention on! We have identified 4 major tasks for 2008 and ask you to select which of these should be at the top of the transatlantic agenda. You can vote now on the right side.
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D. Korski & M. Williams: NATO’s members need to take action if the 60 year old alliance is to survive as a useful organization.
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Dieter Farwick: The NATO defense ministers’ meeting should conclude with an agreement to send additional forces to Afghanistan. The troops can win if given the necessary resources and operational freedom.
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Dr. Dimitrios Argirakos: Angela Merkel subordinates German international relations to US geopolitical objectives, something that Bismarck and Adenauer would not understand.
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Dr. Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg: I write on the implications of the latest survey of Afghan attitudes toward ISAF activities, and convey the need for continued German engagement in Afghanistan.
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Memo 3: Members of the Atlantic Community question German participation in OEF, support ISAF and want increased emphasis on social issues in Afghanistan. In this Executive Summary, Annette Poelking of the Atlantic Initiative has more on members’ ideas for Afghanistan and an update on the ongoing debate.
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Niklas Keller: of the Atlantic Initiative recommends transparent negotiations with the Taliban and local pro-Taliban groups, in order to help curb insurgent violence in Afghanistan.
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Niklas Keller: of the Atlantic Initiative calls corruption one of the greatest obstacles to development in Afghanistan. The international community must create an incentive structure at both the governmental and local levels which is more attractive than corrupt activities.
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Atlantic Happy Hour: NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer came to Berlin on a mission to get more German troops into the south of Afghanistan. As the guest of honor at an event run by the Atlantic Initiative, publisher of the Atlantic Community, Scheffer appeared with representatives from five of Germany’s political parties to respond to questions on the future of operations in Afghanistan.
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Markus Kaim: I advocate merging the military capabilities of Germany’s three current mandates under the ISAF umbrella to bring transatlantic equilibrium to the burden-sharing in Afghanistan. Military participation in Operation Enduring Freedom should end, and ISAF Aerial Reconnaissance and Surveillance should be integrated into a single ISAF directive.
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David G. Haglund: I blame disagreement over Afghanistan for the disappearance of the golden relationship between Berlin and Ottawa. Canada’s “perfect peacekeepers” want Germans to shoulder their fair share of the NATO burden.
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Thomas Speckmann: Iraq’s label as a “second Vietnam” for the United States does not hold up to scrutiny. Recent changes to US military strategy on terrorism— building infrastructure, winning hearts and minds—come straight out of the Bundeswehr handbook, and they’re working. So why not take them to Kabul?
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GM Roper: If Germany expects US help in the future, it must stay the course in Afghanistan now. The Bundeswehr should carry its share of the coalition burden without complaint as part of OEF.
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Niels Annen: I question the sustainability of Operation Enduring Freedom. And I see deteriorating coordination between ISAF and OEF and asks whether it is time to choose between the two.
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Michael John Williams: The EU Battlegroups, though small, are a step in the right direction. The United States can and should play a role in promoting further advancement of European expeditionary capability.
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Anatol Lieven: The political stakes in Pakistan are the highest in 40 years. It is time to create a new, firmer and more institutionalized civilian-military relationship.
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Memo 1: Members of the Atlantic Community commented on the appropriate role for the EU in Afghanistan.
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Karsten Voigt: Shifting German troops out of the north of Afghanistan would be detrimental to the country. The troops should stay with their original mission, as they are providing significant support to the allied forces.
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Julianne Smith: I want the EU to take a stronger role in Afghanistan. The EU should act as a coordinating body for the reconstruction and development of the country. This would also strengthen Europe’s standing with its partners.
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Karsten Voigt: I cannot foresee an end to the German and Allied commitment in Afghanistan as long as the Taliban pose a threat to the country’s stability. We cannot allow pro-terrorist groups to take over, and that good governance is a priority.
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Global Must Read Articles
Rather than focusing on force levels, debates about burden-sharing within NATO should look at “defense transformation, operations, and the wider context of the international community’s efforts.” ++ While burden-sharing faces many challenges, more equality is possible through common funding, “transformation efforts to increase the pool of usable and deployable forces,” and increased multinational
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The Pakistani Army no longer fights the counterinsurgency war on their western border. ++ Instead Pakistani troops are deployed at the border to India, where 80% of US aid since 9/11 has been used, although given to fight the Taliban insurgency. ++ Civilian government and the attempt to improve governance and fight corruption in Pakistan and Afghanistan suffer by the withdrawal of troops from the
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Senior Afghan official, Mohammad Z. Wahdats is skeptical that there would be less stability in Afghanistan’s north without the Germans. ++ “For the issue of security, we don’t need them any more. We solve all our problems by ourselves.” ++ Wahdats also calls the German training of the Afghan National Police a failure ++ Germans overstate their engagement and effectiveness in the north and their
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A 30-year lease of the Afghan copper deposits was sold to the China Metallurgical Group
for $3 billion, making it the biggest foreign investment in Afghanistan’s history. ++ While critics argue Afghanistan is too ill-equipped to absorb such huge sums of money or to assess the social and environmental costs, most Afghans see the deal as their only chance for the future. ++ The Chinese are
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Democratic governance in Pakistan is now a reality and the new government plans to act boldly and clearly in full awareness of the stakes of both success and failure. ++ The government will continue the war against terrorism not because of international pressure but because the eradication of terrorism is of primary importance to Pakistan. ++ The government intends to demonstrate to its “people
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Musharraf and Bush’s failure to calm Pakistan’s lawless border enabled Al Qaeda to take refuge and gain strength. ++ Pakistanis now think the war is Washington’s because of the civilian casualties. ++ New government has adopted a different course. ++ US should develop a new military strategy, provide more non-military aid, and support the new government which has exceeded
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The traditional role of the state in Europe is diminished, therefore the capacity of EU governments to ask their people for sacrifices is reduced. ++ As the debate over using NATO forces in Afghanistan showed, EU governments are not able to live up to their obligations. ++ The European disillusionment with US policies has structural reasons and will continue after Bush’s presidency.
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Few members at the Bucharest Summit acted to present the strongest military alliance in the world as “purposeful, tough and cohesive.” ++ “The Atlantic Caucus” is left to shoulder the biggest burden in Afghanistan and fill the “Eurogap” left by partners who fail to take the Taliban insurgency seriously. ++ Now NATO also suffers from a credibility gap due to members’ lack of resolve regarding
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Troops in Afghanistan amount to a mere 10% of the contingent needed. ++ Quarrelling over NATO policy issues is preventing gathering the necessary means to effectively tackle terrorism and the Taliban. ++ While French, German and Greek troops are comfortably in the North “where the main threat they face is boredom,” their politicians are willing to take charge, but not to shoulder the war’s
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The fate of NATO’s Afghanistan mission is strongly interlinked with developments in Pakistan. ++ Stability of both countries depends on an effective strategy to fight the Taliban/Al Qaeda in Pakistan’s tribal border areas. ++ Taliban’s capabilities against coalition forces in Afghanistan are a threat. ++ Joint US-Afghan-Pakistan military intelligence centers and counter-terrorism operations are
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The first territorial war of NATO history in Afghanistan will be the hot topic at the Bucharest Summit. ++ NATO’s credibility seems tied to success in Afghanistan, therefore NATO governments should reach a consensus on new criteria for measuring success and failure. ++ Democratization and stabilization can be difficult to achieve and should not be measured on an all-or-nothing basis.
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Iran and the US are not doomed to remain eternal enemies. ++ The two countries share profound strategic interests such as stabilizing Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan; preventing the spread of Russian influence; and ensuring that Middle Eastern oil flow smoothly to Western markets. ++ A path towards comprehensive negotiations should be adopted as it is low cost and could yield extremely remarkable
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Taliban and al Qaeda members sheltered in Pakistan are serious threats to US and NATO troops in Afghanistan. ++ Frontier Corps need to be improved and the US should be spending more than $150 million a year on the eastern front. ++ The US should clearly support reconciliation, getting the military out of politics, a new tribal area policy, and above all, democracy in Pakistan.
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Most important task for the UN secretary general’s new special representative for Afghanistan, Kai Eide, is to form a relationship with President Karzai. ++ UN must be the primary coordinator for all organizations in Afghanistan. ++ Military and civilian efforts need to be coordinated, Afghanistan Compact needs to be supported, and Afghanistan’s neighbors need to help stabilize.
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With unilateral pull-outs of the Afghan mission threatening NATO’s existence, Europe’s security is also at risk. ++ EU members lack consensus both on matters of foreign policy and regarding a role for NATO in the future. ++ As a global security actor, the EU should bolster its military capabilities, drop its idealism, and commit itself to real objectives in Sudan, Afghanistan, and Kosovo.
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March 8, International Women’s Day, illustrates the existence of non-Western feminist movements. ++ The new government of Afghanistan noted the day to some degree. ++ Religion is a significant feminist issue, opening the door to new interpretations of Islam. ++ Low literacy rates further the vulnerability of Afghan women. ++ The Afghan government should make bold moves to allow women full
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As Afghanistan moves from a transitional to a long-term development framework, an outside authority is needed to direct reconstruction. ++ The Afghan government cannot manage this alone. ++ The country is slipping back into terrorism reminiscent of Taliban rule. ++ The European Union would be the ideal candidate to coordinate between the government, international organisations and the NGOs.
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Jan Techau and Alexander Skiba of the German Council on Foreign Relations criticize the German Government’s rejection of the US request for more German combat forces in south Afghanistan. There are at least three reasons for Germany to re-evaluate its current position: stabilizing Afghanistan is in Germany’s national interest; strategically it makes sense for Germany to carry more of
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An opinion poll commissioned by the BBC indicates that 54% of Afghans think things are going in the right direction, while 70% described their living conditions as good or very good. According to the poll of 1377 people from all 34 provinces of Afghanistan, 67% support or strongly support the presence of NATO forces.
Most striking was the apparent unpopularity of the Taliban – only 5% of
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General James Conway of the US Marine Corps advocates the re-deployment of a large contingent of his men into Afghanistan, which would be extracted from the Marine presence in Iraq’s Anbar province, writes Gordon Lubald for the Christian Science Monitor.
In the absence of prospective troops from other countries, Gen. Conway argues it is necessary to improve the standing of the United States in
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French President Nicolas Sarkozy has reached out to the United States and is willing to bring France back into NATO, an offer America should seize, writes Dr. Ronald Asmus from the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) and member of the Atlantic Initiative Advisory Board.
In 1995 Presidents Chirac and Clinton came close to an agreement, but sudden political changes threw France back
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Norine MacDonald of the Senlis Council — a security, development and counternarcotics group – briefs the Canadian Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development on Canada’s faltering contributions to Afghan development. Based on studies conducted in Kandahar, MacDonald outlines the “chilling” conditions of everyday life within the southern Afgan province. Lack of
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Today’s security threats demand global military capability, argue Ivo Daalder of Brookings and James Goldgeier of George Washington University. International alliances should incorporate new partners that can share the increasing demand for troops and meet the new requirements for a secure global community. NATO’s membership should be opened up beyond the original cold war mandate prescribed by
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NATO troops should adopt three main policies in Afghanistan, says Rory Stewart. First, they should develop a more considerate approach towards tribal communities in order to distinguish between friends and “real” enemies; second, they should concentrate on highly visible infrastructure projects to regain the population’s trust; third, development projects need to be launched (e.g. from UN
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Talibanistan, the tribal region of Pakistan which forms the border with Afghanistan, is seen by Time Asia correspondent Aryn Baker as the breeding ground for a new generation of terrorists and a hideaway for al-Qaeda leaders. The “Talibanization” of the borderlands has renewed doubts about Pakistani President Musharraf’s willingness to track down jihadists. Furthermore, the loss of support from
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