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David Neil Lebhar: Ahmed Rashid argues that the conflict in Afghanistan needs a regional solution, including US-Iranian cooperation. The German military must intensify operations in northern Afghanistan, and the government has to educate the public about the mission’s importance.
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Atlantik-Brücke’s Young Leaders: The Atlantic partners must jointly address the economic slowdown, competition over scarce resources and energy dependence. Moreover, the transatlantic relationship faces an immediate, critical test in Afghanistan. Success there is needed as a demonstration of our ability to effectively address common security threats.
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From the Editorial Team: In his nomination speech, the Democratic presidential candidate reiterates his commitment to direct diplomacy with Iran and his hawkish position on Pakistan. What do you make of Barack Obama’s security policy positions?
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Fabian Martin Lieschke: Iran’s nuclear strategy – one that allows it to buy time and improve its negotiating position – seems to be working. The US policy shift has come too late - Iran has already wrapped Germany, Russia and China around its little finger. The next US President will be faced with a tough choice.
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Philip Gordon: China does not want to jeopardize its energy deals with Tehran which are essential for its economic development. But this is a short-sighted perspective which overlooks the risks the Iranian nuclear program represents for China itself. It is time for China to think strategically about Iran.
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Sanam Vakil: Tehran’s factional disputes are rooted in the very character of the Iranian regime. They ensnare even its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But this can also mean that these figures’ political resilience in face of criticism can be underestimated.
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Daniel Möckli: Switzerland pursues an ambitious Middle East policy that differs from US and EU polices in major ways. This has given rise to controversies lately. There are good reasons for the Swiss to pursue a conflict resolution strategy based on mediation and dialog with Iran and militant Islamist organization
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Ryan R. Miller: The belief Russia will help the West ease tensions with Iran is wishful thinking. A compliant Iran would be Gazprom’s biggest competitor. Washington should offer the Mullahs EU energy markets in exchange for concessions on the nuclear issue and thus reduce European dependence on Russian energy.
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Fabian Martin Lieschke: President Bush’s effort to unite the EU-3 behind an American proposal for harsher measures on Iran may be undermined by German domestic politics.
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Thomas Speckmann: By highlighting the following dilemma “the Iranian bomb or the bombing of Iran”, Sarkozy signalled the return to a strategy of nuclear deterrence. Since the West’s most dreaded scenario is the nuclearization of the Middle East, calls to prevent Iran from acquiring the atomic bomb are becoming ever more frequent.
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Ryan R. Miller: When major powers meet in Shanghai on April 16th to discuss Iran’s nuclear program, Washington should work with European capitals and leave the door open to greater EU-Iranian energy trade as a potential reward for Iranian good behavior. For post-communist Central Europe, disproportionately exposed to Russia’s energy monopoly, such a strategy could kill two birds with one stone.
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Matt Dupuis: The idea of bringing the production and storage of nuclear fuel under international control is gaining support once again. The US should take the lead in creating a global fuel bank which would make it possible to test countries’ intentions while limiting their access to nuclear technology.
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Charles Kupchan and Ray Takeyh: Rather than continuing to pursue strategies which isolate and attempt to contain Iran, the US needs to follow the lead of its Arab Allies, practice diplomacy, and encourage regional integration.
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Ryan R. Miller: Possible Polish-Iranian energy cooperation puts U.S. policy makers between a rock and a hard place, as America finds itself committed both to isolating the Islamic Republic and supporting Polish efforts to outflank Russia’s Gazprom.
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Benjamin Lucas Schoo: Vote now on what prominent security related issue the governments on both sides of the Atlantic should focus their attention on! We have identified 4 major tasks for 2008 and ask you to select which of these should be at the top of the transatlantic agenda. You can vote now on the right side.
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Christian E. Rieck: A further proliferation of nuclear technology among ambitious middle powers is inevitable. Even though such a cooperation between Iran and Venezuela seems far-fetched at the moment, deepening ties amongst mounting international pressure could create an attractive nuclear possibility for them.
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Ralf Fuecks: The United States must offer Iran direct negotiations regarding its nuclear program. There needs to be a higher level of political and energy cooperation.
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Dr. Dimitrios Argirakos: Angela Merkel subordinates German international relations to US geopolitical objectives, something that Bismarck and Adenauer would not understand.
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Alexander Bernhard Bitter: Missile defense for Europe is coterminous with NATO’s mission. The European policy of waiting for a new US administration is flawed, as the financial burden of the endeavor could shift heavily toward Europe.
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Matt Dupuis: A nuclear-armed Iran could result in regional spillover in the form of nuclear proliferation throughout the Middle East. Negotiations, not deterrence, are the best way to avoid a nuclear free-for-all in the future.
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Andreas Beckmann: The general public does not understand the advantages of a US ground-based missile defense system in Europe. Western politicians should be wary of making confusing public statements that could facilitate Russian and Iranian efforts to divide the Alliance.
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Christian E. Rieck: Western “rogue state” rhetoric is creating unlikely partnerships among the outcasts of the international community. The unity possible under the rogue state banner provides a welcome chance to mimic international legitimacy, and an opportunity to further erode democracy and consolidate domestic power—without Western admonitions to the contrary.
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Mark Brzezinski: The US has missed opportunities to make sensible progress in India and Iran. In both cases, the United States should be promoting constructive engagement rather than undercutting long-held nonproliferation doctrine.
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Robert M. Kimmitt:, U.S. Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, applauded Germany’s efforts at forging transatlantic economic bonds during a media breakfast hosted by the Atlantic Initiative in conjunction with the DGAP and Bohnen Kallmorgen & Partner. Kimmitt’s stop in Berlin was part of an extended trip through European capitals aimed at promoting common transatlantic policies towards financial and economic issues.
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Christian Rieck and Dustin Dehez: We argue that the growing public relationship between Iran and Venezuela is more a game of smoke and mirrors than a substantial threat. The US and EU must avoid rising to propaganda’s bait and continue dealing with Ahmadinejad and Chavez individually, bearing in mind that “if pushed too hard, even unlikely bedfellows can become a happy couple.”
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Tony Karon: The West should not be asking whether Tehran will build nuclear weapons in the future, but rather how the regime can be persuaded that it doesn’t need them.
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Joerg Wolf: Noting the high stakes for the continent and its limited capabilities, European analysts suggest that Europe should pursue different policies than the US or make support dependent on more involvement in the decision-making process.
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The Atlantic Community Editorial Team: asked European policy experts for their opinions on proposed ways forward in Iraq. Respondents from ten different countries provided some surprising results.
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Hans-Ulrich Klose: We need a new philosophy of deterrence against Iran. A tough containment policy, including Russia, and strong defense of Israel could bring about a changed security architecture in the Middle East that might finally include Tehran.
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Jan-Friedrich Kallmorgen: the only news from the White House and Petraeus findings is that any decision on American troop withdrawal is postponed: President Bush is betting it all on positive trends in Iraq. Should the situation improve, Germany too will have to do its part.
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Retired General James Jones: Positive trends on the ground could enable a shift in responsibility from Coalition forces to the Iraqi security forces.
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The Atlantic Community Editorial Team: presents a comparative analysis of the most promising plans from policy makers and think tanks across the US. See all the strategies here, or download and print out a PDF with the full matrix of options.
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Irem Köker: I identify the issues to watch for between Turkey and the United States. Although the majority party remains in power, new developments on the Kurds, the Armenian genocide question and Turkey’s energy deal with Iran could have lasting consequences.
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Kenneth Ballen: Almost 70% of Iranians favor normal relations with the United States. With all options against Iran still on the table, the West should pay more attention to a population whose majority supports democracy.
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Dirk Niebel: Britain, France and Germany should get tough on Tehran through European economic pressure. Nuclear progress has already emboldened the government, and the West must take decisive action before it is too late.
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Shlomo Ben-Ami: I analyze the consequences of US grand strategy in the Middle East. The regional balance of power has been so thoroughly altered that an Arab-Israeli settlement now looks increasingly possible.
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Maximilian Terhalle: I recommend that the United States offer Iran a fair deal in order to secure American interests in the Gulf region. The US needs to consider Iran’s political ambitions if it hopes to make headway with Tehran, and the international community should get involved in negotiating a mutually beneficial agreement.
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Eberhard Sandschneider: The conference from the German Marshall Fund closes a strategic gap between Davos and Munich. The transatlantic discussion forum should improve relations between Europe and the United States.
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Eckart von Klaeden: Europe and Germany need missile defense against the threat from Iran. Europe has long neglected the new strategic threats arising from missile proliferation.
This is the first of a two-part series from the Atlantic Initiative Advisory Board Member.
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Global Must Read Articles
Recent developments have greatly reduced the chances of a war against Iran. ++ Washington had planned to conduct air strikes against Iran from Georgian soil. ++ Russian intervention makes it impossible, which has “strengthened Iran’s hand.” ++ Russia undermined US efforts to impose new sanctions against Tehran during the Security Council’s meeting last month. ++ The fact
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Iran is at most four years away from its nuclear goals - diplomacy is needed. ++ Russia’s offer to provide Iran with enriched nuclear material and US proposals for direct talks in return for the abandonment of nuclear intentions have been turned down. ++ The disapproval of further offers might result in the total isolation of Iran. ++ Using military force is only credible if Iran “can
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On Israel’s 60th anniversary and the Islamic revolution’s 30th, both countries are actually more similar than one may think. ++ Israel fears a loss of power from shifting demographics, and similarly Iranian conservatives fear losing power to supporters of former president Mohammad Khatami. ++ Both countries also feel isolated: Israel, a Jewish state in an Arab region, and Iran, a Shiite state
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Osama Bin Laden called Iraq the “central front” in his fight against the US - he was right. ++ Obama/Biden only focus on the past; they still think invading Iraq was a mistake, a distraction from Afghanistan. ++ Their obsession misses the point: “The essence of being a good commander in chief is appreciating the connections among these theaters.” ++ FDR fought the Nazi’s before assailing Japan,
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A petro-emboldened Russia is becoming resurgent in the Middle East. ++ With US power waning, Russia is seeking to fill the vacuum. ++ And they’re being well-received, as “autocratic and wealth-loving Russians” have more in common with the conservative majority of the region than “the US, with its pop culture and liberal democracy.” ++ Russia’s desire for a bloc
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Ban Ki-moon lauded Tehran’s mediating role in the Caucasus, which surely is music to the ears’ of Iran’s president. ++ Ahmadinejad adopted the language of post-hegemony and portrayed Iran as the leader of a new global alliance for peace and, thereby, as an alternative to the US. ++ Some developing countries’ diplomats appreciate Tehran’s criticism of NATO’s role in Georgia and Afghanistan. ++ The
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Even if Iran is currently racing toward accumulating enough uranium for a bomb, the financial crisis has reduced the sense of urgency in the US. ++ The UN Security Council and Germany will meet this week, but it’s unlikely that they will agree on any effective sanctions such as an arms embargo. ++ Only symbolic actions to further Iran’s diplomatic isolation are realistic. ++ Of course, the
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India and the US are celebrating their new nuclear deal this week. ++ Critics fear an unraveling of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. ++ Notwithstanding, India will be one of the great world powers and there is an unfortunate, yet undeniable link between power and nuclear weapons. ++ Although it may be hypocritical to permit India and sanction Iran, India is a status quo power and a settled
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The EU’s plan to reward Syria with an “Association Agreement” is worrisome for several reasons. ++ Damascus not only sponsors Hezbollah and Hamas, it also follows Iran’s approach to nuclear weapons in spite of its commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. ++ “European leaders should cease all further action toward an Association Agreement.” ++ If the EU ignores the lesson of inaction,
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US sanctions on Iran have caused an influx of Iranian trade with nearby Dubai. ++ Visits to the UAE by US officials have resulted in drastically fewer business licenses for Iranians there. ++ This policy has hurt many Iranians who are at odds with their government; “it is affecting only the people, not the government sector.” ++ US officials hope Iranians will place the blame on their own
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Israel is known for not tolerating a deadly threat, and so it is only a matter of time before it strikes Iran. ++ The international community failed to pressure Iran, as it did not block the Strait of Hormuz thereby harming Iran’s oil-based economy. ++ This option would have had a negative impact on the oil market in the short run, but could have averted a new war. ++ The outcome of the elections
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Dubai seems to be caught between a rock and a hard place: Iran and the US. ++ Recently Dubai has served as a critical trading partner allowing Iran to circumnavigate sanctions imposed by the US. ++ Dubai re-exports many goods it receives from the US to Iran, including computer circuitry that was used in IEDs in Iraq against American forces. ++ With Iran refusing to halt its nuclear program, Dubai
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Despite negotiations with the EU and sanctions from the US, the ultimate purpose of Iran’s nuclear facilities remains unclear. ++ A closer relationship is needed to monitor Iran’s nuclear activity. ++ This relationship should be business oriented, allowing Iran to develop its nuclear energy capabilities, which would in turn be purchased by clients such as the US, France, and Russia. ++
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If Obama is elected, a VP Joe Biden will likely mean positive developments for troubled US-Iran relations. ++ Biden’s experiences with Iranian diplomacy legitimize Obama’s call for direct contact with Tehran. ++ However, Biden’s plans to negotiate with Iran may cost Obama some Jewish votes and Biden may have to give in to a more hawkish stance. ++ But Biden’s more conciliatory approach toward
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It is the Hamas’s illegitimate rule that prevents progress between Israel and the Palestinians, not Israel itself. ++ However, Palestinian protesters stick to the anti-Israel dogma and do not question the extremists’ destructiveness even though they need to ask Israel more and more often for help. ++ Therefore, “it is time to realize that bashing Israel will not build Palestine.” ++
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A strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, whether by the US or Israel, is a disastrous idea. ++ If Iran is attacked oil prices may rise to $200 a barrel which would be a hard hit for the global economy. ++ Iranian nuclear facilities are too widely dispersed to be fully destroyed by warplanes, which means an attack would only delay the progress towards getting a bomb; it is also likely to harden
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There is a trend among Sunni Arab states to revitalize diplomatic ties with Iraq. ++ The growing Shia influence backed by Iran may have alarmed them. ++ But instead of pressuring the US to ensure the Sunni’s reinsertion into Iraqi politics, Arab officials now try to integrate Iraq’s Shia government back into “the Arab fold.” ++ Unfortunately, the efforts can not be successful if Saudi-Arabia
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Two of the EU’s key assumptions towards Russia have been proven wrong: firstly, Russia obviously does not share the Western values and secondly, Russia does not oppose Iran going nuclear. ++ Moscow can assume that a nuclear Iran will hurt Western interests more than Russian and will shape balance of power favorably for Russia. ++ Yet, there is still a chance for the EU to pressure Iran through
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Iran remains mute on Georgia crisis. ++ US-Russia rift could spoil Iran Six negotiations; or increase Russia’s engagement. ++ Historical ties to Georgia and more recent fears of Russian aggressiveness should lead Iran to condemn this violation of Georgian sovereignty. ++ Tehran needs to act as an impartial mediator. ++ An adverse effect on Russian-Iranian relations has to be risked. ++ Post-9/11
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Now that the Bush administration has reneged on its hard line against negotiations, Iran does not take US ultimatums seriously. ++ Where progressives see flexibility, Iranian officials see weakness.++ As long as there are no sanctions, Iran could import all the technology they need throughout negotiations. ++ Diplomacy with an insincere opponent does more harm than good. ++ With its diplomatic
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His presidency coming to an end, Bush becomes obsessed with his legacy and solving the issue of nuclear Iran is foremost in his mind. ++ If he decides to support Israel in its possible attack on Iran, the economic and political costs would be disastrous: oil prices would soar, terrorist attacks worldwide would follow, and the possibility of any dialogue between Iran and the West would be ruined
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US government has a tendency to “squash mosquitoes with TNT,” which shows in its treatment of Iran. ++ There’s no need to fear Iran: Ahamadinejad is only a figurehead putting on a show of might to gain respect in the Muslim world; the real power is in the hands of religious leaders, many of whom are sympathetic to the West. ++ The fact that Americans don’t see that reveals they
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The permanent members of the UN security council condemn Iran, but they are just as guilty of nuclear proliferation. ++ The distinction between their supposedly “responsible” ownership of nuclear weapons and that of Iran, North Korea or Pakistan is entirely arbitrary: US, Russia, UK, and France refuse to disarm and have all declared they would be prepared to use their nuclear arsenal against a
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Israel faces a dilemma: If European diplomacy fails to halt Iran’s uranium enrichment program and Americans prove reluctant to launch another war in the Middle East under Bush, should Israel strike alone? ++ An attack could dangerously unite Iranians behind their president and influence the presidential race in the US. ++ But Israeli leaders believe in an emergency - estimates suggest Iran could
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The Bush administration has recently shifted its approach toward Iran and is treating it with unjustified leniency: the possibility of reopening a diplomatic mission in Tehran and face-to-face meetings are gestures Iran hasn’t earned. ++ Tehran continues with its uranium enrichment program, tests missiles capable of reaching Europe, sponsors terrorism in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Gaza and
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Thirty years after cutting off diplomatic ties, the US is planning the establishment of a modest diplomatic representation in Tehran for which it appears to have secured Iranian approval. ++ Though this shift from previous hard-line policies toward Tehran may essentially be an effort on Bush’s behalf to “leave a ‘positive legacy’ behind,” he is thereby also hinting at US engagement to a
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The situation in the Middle East is past the point when sanctions and diplomatic talks can still make a difference. ++ The Islamic Republic is not going to yield, it is simply playing for time while trying to produce deliverable nuclear weapons. ++ Instead of insisting on the measures which apparently do not work, the US should consider helping Israel if it decides to strike Iran or at least not
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The West is more concerned about who proliferates than whether someone degradates the Non-Proliferation Treaty. ++ A manageable relationship with Iran requires understanding its world view and equally and respectfully acknowledging its interests. ++ Security rewards should replace sanctions: Israel could for instance be warned “that any unilateral attack on Iran would force the US to reconsider
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Since the Cold War, US foreign policy has struggled to find a “main enemy,” thereby defining its focus. ++ Global politics, however, have returned to a status quo, in which a broad range of problems, with long-term resilience and requiring non-ideological responses, will be better served with America’s continuing strategic advantage on most fronts. ++ On a non-governmental
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Iranian diplomacy reflects pride, self-confidence, and a decreasing fear of the US and Israel. ++ Whereas Tehran’s hard-liners are using the argument of Western weakness to justify their rejection of compromise, pragmatic voices believe it is time for Iran to negotiate and “consolidate its gains.” ++ At present, Iran’s course is unclear: “even as they talk about diplomacy, the Iranians continue
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“If you want to make peace, you don’t talk to your friends. You talk to your enemies.” ++ The US must heed the lessons learned from North Korea in dealing with Iran’s nuclear ambitions. ++ Had Bush agreed to a dialogue years before Pyongyang’s test explosion in 2006, the US would be negotiating in a position of strength, not weakness. ++ Nations concerned with global security
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The US-India nuclear pact, declared “almost certainly dead” last month, will probably be signed by the Indian government after all. ++ The onus of getting it implemented is therefore back on the US. ++ Congress must stop pressuring India into backing US policy on Iran. ++ India shouldn’t have to choose between good relations with itself and Tehran. ++ PM Manmohan Singh will not agree to toe
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Globalization means that international affairs no longer occur in a bipolar, unipolar, or even multipolar world, but rather “under conditions of nonpolarity.” ++ In this nonpolar world, coordination between actors is increasingly difficult, and agreements are rarely reached. ++ The problem of Iran, currently Israel’s top concern, will unlikely motivate the international community to act in
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Israeli government claims the extent of the Iranian threat is being underplayed and that no diplomatic pressure can prevent Iranians getting nuclear weapons. ++ Shaul Mofaz, member of Israel’s security cabinet, announced last week that “attacking Iran, in order to stop its nuclear plans, will be unavoidable.” ++ Despite Israel’s skepticism, the only solution is diplomacy and sanctions. ++ Present
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“A US willingness to talk to Iran on the full range of issues dividing the two countries offers the best hope of rescuing a failed policy.” ++ If the US does not negotiate with Iran as proposed by Obama, they will be lacking options besides attacking Iran. ++ The Europeans, Russia, and China are already in dialogue with Teheran. ++ After coordinating with the Europeans, the US should start
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Despite positive developments between Israel and many of its adjacent neighbors, the increasing frequency with which Israel speaks of attacking Iran must not be ignored by the West. ++ Israel either truly plans to attack and “is preparing the ground, militarily and politically,” or it is trying to “spur the rest of the world into action.” ++ The West must act now, before Israel does anything that
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India’s domestic political squabbles are hindering its nuclear program with the US. ++ Afraid that scrupulous international monitoring would undermine India’s traditionally independent foreign policy, the Communist component of the current coalition is blocking a final endorsement. ++ Politicians on both sides of the Atlantic are baffled, as this deal is nothing but advantageous. ++
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Britain’s foreign secretary argues that if the new “dual-track approach” regarding Iran’s nuclear aspirations fails, it is the Iranian’s own fault. ++ Convinced that the region and the world need a cooperative, sanction-free Iran, the West is offering generous incentives, including assistance for a civilian-based nuclear energy program, in return for Iran’s
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Coercive diplomacy is America’s only remaining option as its influence declines in the Middle East. ++ Especially in the case of an Obama presidency, this “changed constellation” in the region calls for India to readjust its strategy. ++ India needs to balance Israel and Syria, and constructively engage Iran. ++ Like China, India should acknowledge the region’s importance for its own energy
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Albeit reversible, the situation is improving in Iraq as the government gains confidence and increasingly asserts its independence from the US and Iran. ++ Despite the lack of jobs, clean water, and electricity, Iraqis are benefiting from high oil prices and can hope for a normal future. ++ Both plans for precipitated withdrawal and remaining indefinitely are foolish. ++ Swift diplomacy is now
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Al-Maliki wants good relations both with Iran and with the US but ongoing tensions between the two are putting him in a difficult position. ++ The Iraqi Prime Minister cannot afford to ruffle Iran’s feathers because of the large Shia majority in Iraq, which is loyal to Tehran, but Iraq also needs Western help. ++ The UN mandate for Iraq ends on December 31, 2008, and Iran has tried hard to
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Bush is moving toward helping the Saudis develop a nuclear program under the guise of energy security. ++ Considering that Saudi Arabia bathes in oil and basks in sunlight, something is missing. ++ Adding a counterweight to Iran’s nuclear aspirations is what this is actually about. ++ The US should heed the lessons of history, that its addiction to oil spreads extremism and that adding nuclear
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Attacking Iran would be disastrous, many civilians would die, the nuclear program would subsist, and Israel’s involvement would create a serious backlash in the region. ++ Iran’s threats toward Israel give reason for concern but sanctions and diplomatic incentives - both endorsed by Obama and McCain - should be favored over military action. ++ If the UN does not authorize applying punitive
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Bush and Olmert’s allusions to war with Iran are the result of their foreign and domestic policy predicaments. ++ Both leaders need to create a diversion to save themselves politically, and “if either - or both - should order a military strike against Iran, it will not be because Iran has done anything that could seriously threaten either Israel or the US.” ++ Since Iran has thus far remained a
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Europe is playing a dangerous game with Iran. ++ Supporting US-endorsed sanctions while simultaneously maintaining business ties with Iran has resulted in a “schizophrenic policy.” ++ While the US sees a nuclear Iran as absolutely unacceptable, many Europeans’ worst nightmare instead is a US or Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. ++ “Europe’s new leaders may speak loudly, but they still
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Since economic sanctions are the best means to cause unrest among the Iranian population, they are also the most effective tool to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. ++ However, Russia needs to be on board. ++ The Western offer to the Kremlin should be impossible to refuse, and must compensate for what Russia currently gains by dealing with Iran. ++ Russia will join the boycott if the
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The current propaganda campaign against Iran is similar to that against Iraq before the US-led invasion. ++
Without Iran’s cooperation peace and stability in Iraq cannot be achieved. ++ The more immediate danger is not Iranian nuclear ambition, but the transformation of the Gulf into a theater of artificial Sunni-versus-Shia tensions. ++ Contrary to most Western news accounts, the IAEA
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The US position vis-a-vis Iran and North Korea has been weakened in the past several years, not out of a reluctance to engage in talks, or because of the emptiness of threats of using force, but because of a failure to formulate a clear-cut policy. ++ As the military option is unrealistic, America should focus on the many diplomatic and economic levers at its disposal. ++ John McCain’s refusal to
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Iran cannot be prevented from acquiring nuclear power capabilities. ++ The US should therefore favor negotiation with the regime over the current threats and sanctions driven policy which merely provides for hostile relations. ++ Since “a successful approach to Iran has to accommodate its security interests and ours,” strategic deterrence should prove effective. ++ Additionally, cooperation could
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The US proposal of a regional nuclear defense shield against Iran is not being met with enthusiasm by its allies in the Persian Gulf. ++ As business ties with Iran deepen, the Gulf States perceive the offer of the US as a short-sighted attempt to divide the Middle East, and as potentially highly destabilizing. ++ It is in the US’s own interest not to force its allies into making an unnecessary
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Failed US foreign policy pushed Iran into a hegemonic role it never could have attained under its own power and in such a short time. ++ Iran’s nuclear program threatens to tilt the regional strategic balance enduringly. ++ It is very likely that the US and Israel will solve this problem before Bush steps down. ++ “Iran’s nuclear program will be handled militarily, not
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The recent agreement between Lebanese political factions promised to end the 18 month long political deadlock. ++ Although it amounted to a significant shift of power in favour of the militant Shiite group Hezbollah, the governmental officials believe it helped avoid a civil war. + + Yet the deal did not resolve the questions that provoked the crisis in December 2006. ++ Those include
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Iran, which is the OPEC’s second’s largest exporter, has enough natural gas to alleviate Western Europe’s uncomfortable reliance on Russia’s energy exports. ++ Disputes over pipelines, political blocking, and current US sanctions on capital inflow into Iran stand in the way of exploiting this huge potential. ++ Much depends on the coming elections, both in the US and Iran,
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While Iran’s nuclear program frustrates the West and demonstrates “the limits of American power,” feelings of satisfaction and success unite Iranians. ++ Western incentives for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment - such as commercial contracts - are unimaginative and defective. ++ Since Iran’s regional hegemonic ambitions won’t ebb, the US and its EU Allies should encourage a plan that trades
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The conflict in Lebanon is part of the larger regional struggle between Arabs and Iran over influence in the region. ++ Hizbollah military action shows that there is a new game in town. ++ While Iran armed, financed and supported Hizbollah, the Arabs limited their support to the legitimate Lebanon government. ++ In fact, Arab league has failed to have any impact on any major development in the
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Obama advocates leading open and direct negotiations with everyone, from Iran to Cuba. ++ His opposition to the Iraq war, his rational stance on Iran, and his “understanding of US imperialism” suggest he will reshape American foreign policy. ++ Yet Obama’s readiness to compromise does not apply to the Middle East. ++ Since Obama’s presidency would provide for high expectations, the predictable
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Amid escalating rhetoric about Iranian military involvement in Iraq, a new package of incentives by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany is unlikely to persuade Iran to suspend nuclear enrichment. ++ As long as open-ended suspension remains the prerequisite for the continuation of talks, Iran will continue its defiance. ++ “The insistence on this precondition
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Recent escalating disputes and mutual suspicion between the government and the Shiite militia Hezbollah in Lebanon raise fears of a new civil war. ++ Arab countries are concerned that Hezbollah may be attempting to spread Iranian influence to Iraq and Lebanon. ++ All parties involved - especially the Arab League and the US - should promote regional and inter-factional cooperation. ++ Political
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The old Middle East and the secular nationalism that went along with it is being replaced by a new, modern Middle East in which political Islam and anti-Western nationalism play a decisive role. ++ There is now a serious threat of “a confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia for sub-regional supremacy, and between Iran and the US for regional hegemony.” ++ The entire state system in the
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According to the US, Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism causing heavy casualties in Iraq. ++ Iranian Hussein Shariatmadari denies this with the claim Iran shares Iraq’s interest in ending US occupation and armed militias. ++ Though the discovery of Iranian weaponry in Iraq suggests Iran is arming Shiite militias, Iranian authorities maintain they would sell weaponry to any party. ++ US
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Concerning the Iranian enrichment program, international attention shouldn’t exclusively be on the receiving country. ++ Indian and European companies deliver nuclear supplies to Iran. ++ Tightening up control over European nuclear industries and doing so transparently, while enlisting the cooperation of Russia and China in this effort is necessary to stop Iranian nuclear weapon
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Recent Arab public opinion polls confirm a “gap between the aims of American policies and Arab public perceptions of the US.” ++ They also highlight that the US could improve its image by brokering peace between Palestine and Israel and by withdrawing from Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula. ++ While US policies are clearly opposed, middle ground could be found regarding democratic values and
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Obama and Clinton may agree on many issues, but they champion two very different approaches towards US foreign policy in the Middle East. ++ Obama opposes the notion of a “clash of civilizations” and supports engaging moderates and democrats in the Muslim world. ++ Clinton would follow a path similar to that of the Bush administration and focus on defending US allies and deterring Iran.
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Contrary to the Bush administration’s claim last week, the main interest of Iran in Iraq is not to predicate on violence but to stabilize this country. ++ To prevent the possible future aggression from the Sunnites and to stop the agitation for Kurdish autonomy, Iran should not derange the unfolding democratic process. ++ To emerge as the leading power in the Gulf, Iran needs the withdrawal of US
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US disengagement in Iraq will increase long term stability in the region. ++ Al-Qaeda is not behind most of the insurgency. ++ Disengagement should include serious dialogues with Iraqi leaders and those of neighboring areas, including Iran. ++ Overall goal of US strategy should be to stabilize the Middle East by ending the war in Iraq, negotiating with Iran, and leading Israel and Palestine to
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Iran and the US are not doomed to remain eternal enemies. ++ The two countries share profound strategic interests such as stabilizing Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan; preventing the spread of Russian influence; and ensuring that Middle Eastern oil flow smoothly to Western markets. ++ A path towards comprehensive negotiations should be adopted as it is low cost and could yield extremely remarkable
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Israel’s legitimate nuclear program is not a valuable excuse for Russia to jeopardize international security by supplying a reactor to Iran and by agreeing on nuclear cooperation with
Egypt. ++ The international community should strive to prevent unstable democracies from acquiring nuclear weapons, acknowledge that Iran is not just a threat to Israel but to the world, and hold Russia
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During Merkel’s visit, Israel needs to clarify that Germany must support tougher sanctions, break diplomatic ties, and end governmental trade subsidies with Iran. ++ Brown and Sarkozy are already supportive of more restrictive sanctions, but if Germany remains indecisive, effective action against Iran will be impossible. ++ Israel only further endangers itself claiming that Germany is doing
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Owing to Iran’s unique political culture combining elements of democracy and autocracy, Ahmadinejad’s hard-liners will face pragmatic conservatives on March 14. ++ Despite the pressure of the paramilitary, economic mismanagement could enable the president’s adversaries to gain ground. ++ Iran may step away from revolutionary radicalism but it would still be too soon “to write Ahmadinejad’s
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The US’s current “insistence on zero enrichment of uranium” in Iran is unreasonable. ++ The US needs to encourage Iran to abandon its national enrichment activities in favor of a multilateral program based in Iran. ++ While there would be many risks, such a program would deter Iranian proliferation, help Iran further its nuclear power agenda, and ensure greater transparency regarding its nuclear
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In the wake of the US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, the EU should continue with their diplomatic approach, despite US calls for more unilateral sanctions, says Volker Perthes of the SWP. Such an approach should be based on a broad international consensus, clearly communicating that the issue is proliferation and not the nature of the Iranian regime, and come with an earnest offer of
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The results of the new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear program reveal nothing distinctly different from previous findings. Nevertheless, their ensuing debate could prove critical to long-term transatlantic strategy on Iran says Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund.
The strategic implications of the new NIE reveal that Iran may opt for an ambiguous nuclear
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As Egypt declares its intentions to pursue nuclear energy, it joins other thirteen states in the Middle East with the same aim. Iran’s nuclear plans seem to be responsible for this troubling trend, writes Dan Murphy from the Christian Science Monitor.
While the group includes Libya, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia, only Jordan and Egypt seem to have legitimate claims to nuclear power. Jordan possesses
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Europe has become heavily reliant on Russia to meet its energy needs. This trend undermines Europe’s self-confidence and jeopardizes its geopolitical position as well as that of the United States, says Ariel Cohen from the Heritage Foundation.
Russia’s agenda seeks to perpetuate dependence by consolidating Gazprom’s position at home and abroad. As foreign companies such as Shell and BP fail to
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Zogby International publishes results of the latest telephone poll conducted on key current issues. After tensions have risen to an all-time-high between the United States and Iran, the poll shows 52% of those surveyed support a military strike against the Persian country to prevent the success of their nuclear program.
Among presidential candidates, Senator Hillary Clinton was considered by 21
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Despite tough rhetoric from Chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany continues to play a role in Iran’s nuclear program, writes Benjamin Weinthal in Haaretz. Germany’s official public stance looks shaky in the face of the $5.7 billion in deals closed by German firms with Tehran in 2006. Furthermore, a number of German companies are under investigation for the unlawful supply of technology to
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Transportation of energy resources was top of the agenda during a recent talk between the presidents of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, reports News Central Asia. Presidents Nazarbaev and Berdymuhamedov said their countries had reached an agreement on cooperation for transit and transportation of energy resources. Until now Kazakhstan’s energy exports have been dependant on the Russian
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French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner toned down the pitch of remarks he made earlier this week on the possibility of war with Iran, this time emphasizing negotiations over the use of military measures, report Katrin Bennhold and Elaine Sciolino for the New York Times. French Intelligence fears that Iran may produce a nuclear weapon before the projected 2010-2015 window.
Kouchner
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Wall Street Journal columnist Bret Stephens breaks down the intrigue surrounding Israel’s military operations over Syria on September 6. “In a country of open secrets,” Israel’s customary fleet of spokesmen and pundits has remained conspicuously silent, says Stephens. But why? None of the explanations circulating in the news media—the theory that North Korea was using Syria as a safe
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Congressman Mark Kirk (R-Illinois) reveals in the Washington Post that hundreds of millions of dollars are pouring into Iran through the World Bank, despite UNSC and IAEA conclusions that Iran has ignored its obligations under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It appears that there is a major disconnect between multilateral organizations over how to jointly confront the pressing issues
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FP lists the top most valuable disputed turfs that might just be worth a fight. The world was astonished by Russia’s recent claim to the arctic shelf, with potential for billions of dollars worth of oil and gas reserves. But looking globally, many other strategic and mineral rich territories are just as highly contested between several countries. Japan vs. China, Venezuela against major US oil
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Yossi Mekelberg, Associate Fellow at Chatham House, analyzes Israeli policy options towards Iran and potential consequences.
Though Israel would prefer that issues with Tehran be resolved diplomatically through the international community, it perceives Iran’s nuclear ambitions as an existential threat and cannot rule out the military option.
However, Menkelberg argues that military
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The creation of a legitimate US missile defense system requires a NATO framework, bipartisan support within the US, and Russian participation, argues Ronald Asmus of the German Marshall Fund. The Atlantic Initiative Advisory Board member sees danger of a new division into “Old” and “New” Europe unless these key elements are resolved. While influential US allies Angela Merkel and Jaap de Hoop
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The United Nations approach to halting the Iranian nuclear program is a deepening hole that the Security Council and Germany should “stop digging,” says Christoph Bertram, the former director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin and a member of the Atlantic Initiative Advisory Board. Bertram notes that attempts at sanctioning Iran have heightened Tehran’s
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Veteran Middle East reporter John K. Cooley suggests the US initiate a comprehensive, formal dialogue with Iran on the issues that have divided the two countries since Iran’s 1979 revolution. The minimum objective of this dialogue should be the halt of Iranian uranium enrichment and plutonium diversion for weapons production. A four-step peace plan—including cooperation in Afghanistan and Iraq
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The US-Russian relationship during President Putin’s tenure has seesawed between mutual cooperation and confrontation, says Lionel Beehner of the US Council on Foreign Relations. The three main reasons for these recent tensions are the American intentions to establish an antimissile shield, expand NATO, and encourage the installation of pro-Western governments across Eastern Europe. Putin has
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Chatham House researchers John Mitchell and Glada Lahn advise that although production abroad by Asian national oil companies (ANOCs) is small right now, its relevance to global energy security could change if ANOCs gain significant positions in Iraq or Iran. ANOC host governments are attracted to such Middle East investment by the lower requirements for transparency or diminished social
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Since Israel failed to declare victory in the 2006 war in Lebanon, the Shi’a axis (Iran-Syria-Hezbollah) has only grown stronger and will continue to do so once the US withdraws its troops from Iraq, or Iran builds a nuclear warhead. So writes Yaakov Amidror of the Israeli Army in his account of the outcome of the war. Despite religious conflict with Sunni countries in the region, the revitalized
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