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Open Think Tank Articles
Sarwar Amin: The Iraqi Parliament will soon embark on a daunting task of re-deliberating on the controversial Provincial Election Law. The Kurds feel like they are being treated unfairly. The US and UN must help the process.
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Bernhard Lucke: It is not lack of civil investment, but the occupation that is the problem in Afghanistan. The “war on terror” is creating terrorism instead of controlling it. We are getting used to eroding morals and rising brutality, a way which may lead to new big wars.
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Reidar Visser: US presidential candidates, Democrats and Republicans alike, continue to ignore the shifting political realities in Iraq. Obama and Biden consistently portray the principal dynamic of Iraqi politics as a struggle between Shiites and Sunnis, whereas the main front in Baghdad is between two essentially cross-sectarian coalitions.
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Barack Obama Speech: “I will give our military a new mission on my first day in office: ending this war. (…) Let me be clear: We must be as careful getting out of Iraq as we were careless getting in. We can safely redeploy our combat brigades at a pace that would remove them in 16 months.”
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D. Korski & R. Gowan: In Europe, a consensus is emerging that more should be done for Iraq. If Europeans satisfactorily align with US policies in the region and if the US makes the most of this opportunity, this could significantly revitalize transatlantic relations.
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James Cricks: We are indebted to Christopher Catherwood for doing the homework about Iraq and the West that current policymakers should be considering.
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Anatol Lieven: McCain’s promise to listen more to America’s allies in Europe needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Senator McCain is in fact a neo-conservative as can be seen from his policies on Iraq, Russia, NATO, and democracy building.
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Fouad Naji Maarouf: George W. Bush was a disaster for the US. A change of attitude and government would bring good change.
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Marek Swierczynski: Poland’s decision to join the “coalition of the willing” has left the military stretched beyond capacity, the society in serious mistrust of their leaders and perception of a joint effort for a good cause seriously damaged. It took 25 lives 5 years and 3 governments to rethink and withdraw.
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Charles Kupchan and Ray Takeyh: Rather than continuing to pursue strategies which isolate and attempt to contain Iran, the US needs to follow the lead of its Arab Allies, practice diplomacy, and encourage regional integration.
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Reidar Visser: While Western media has largely overlooked the rise of a moderate centrist force in Iraq, this new current deserves attention as it faces challenges from the Iraqi Presidency Council.
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Anna Nadgrodkiewicz: When in Washington, Tusk will need to address the role of Polish troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, the necessity of easing visa requirements, and the proposed missile defense shield. Most importantly, Tusk should use his visit to build name recognition and focus on issues important to Poland.
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Reidar Visser: I criticize the British for their intention to hand over Basra to the Iraqi army as early as November. Competing Shiite parties have a strong desire to control the oil-rich region, and the potential for internal violence once the British leave is high.
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Joerg Wolf: Noting the high stakes for the continent and its limited capabilities, European analysts suggest that Europe should pursue different policies than the US or make support dependent on more involvement in the decision-making process.
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The Atlantic Community Editorial Team: asked European policy experts for their opinions on proposed ways forward in Iraq. Respondents from ten different countries provided some surprising results.
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Jan-Friedrich Kallmorgen: the only news from the White House and Petraeus findings is that any decision on American troop withdrawal is postponed: President Bush is betting it all on positive trends in Iraq. Should the situation improve, Germany too will have to do its part.
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Jan-Friedrich Kallmorgen: the only news from the White House and Petraeus findings is that any decision on American troop withdrawal is postponed: President Bush is betting it all on positive trends in Iraq. Should the situation improve, Germany too will have to do its part.
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Retired General James Jones: Positive trends on the ground could enable a shift in responsibility from Coalition forces to the Iraqi security forces.
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The Atlantic Community Editorial Team: presents a comparative analysis of the most promising plans from policy makers and think tanks across the US. See all the strategies here, or download and print out a PDF with the full matrix of options.
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Thomas Speckmann: Iraq’s label as a “second Vietnam” for the United States does not hold up to scrutiny. Recent changes to US military strategy on terrorism— building infrastructure, winning hearts and minds—come straight out of the Bundeswehr handbook, and they’re working. So why not take them to Kabul?
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John Hulsman: I offer four simple lessons in state building from the great British officer. A respect for history could help keep America out of future misadventures like the present situation in Iraq.
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Jan Ross: Anti-Americanism is the new global ideology, and it runs deeper than mere policy disputes. The urge to brand the US as moral and cultural scapegoat is driving Europe and the Atlantic alliance apart.
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Global Must Read Articles
Osama Bin Laden called Iraq the “central front” in his fight against the US - he was right. ++ Obama/Biden only focus on the past; they still think invading Iraq was a mistake, a distraction from Afghanistan. ++ Their obsession misses the point: “The essence of being a good commander in chief is appreciating the connections among these theaters.” ++ FDR fought the Nazi’s before assailing Japan,
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By odd coincidence, or perhaps providence, $700bn is roughly the same amount of money squandered on Bush’s “preposterous war in Iraq.” ++ Ironically, the greatest economic crises since the great depression means Obama and McCain won’t have to discuss the “greatest military crisis in America’s history since Vietnam.” ++ This has provided the cover for a strange narrative developing in the US:
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The US weapon industry is continuously growing, while more weapons are sold abroad ++ In Iraq, a host of factors, oil revenue included, has created a “loyal new customer,” namely the Maliki government. ++ Some say selling weapons to Iraq will reduce its reliance on Washington, but Pakistan proves that US forces can clash with US-armed adversaries. ++ Hopefully, the next US president decides
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There are voices among US officials that Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki became overconfident about his government’s ability to handle the security situation in Iraq without the US troops and that he wants to portray himself as the national hero who kicked out the US. ++ Domestically, Maliki’s Shi’ite-dominated government no longer depends on the US and seems to be more and more unwilling to advocate
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The war in Iraq eroded not only US strength but also its moral authority and sense of purpose. ++ Iraq strains the US army to such a extent that it is not left with forces sufficient to stabilize Afghanistan. ++ Moreover, critics of the US administration emphazise the lack of justification of the US-lead invasion and doubt that the US is still in the position to e.g. excoriate Russia. ++ But as
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Recent progress in Iraq does not excuse the war as a whole. ++ It was good to get rid of Saddam Hussein, but the hasty invasion encouraged terrorism and hostility around the world and recent US criticism of Russia’s invasion now seems hypocritical. ++ McCain wants to use US successes to smear Obama, but Obama is right to reject dependence on hard power. ++ Even though Iraq was declared a
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Baghdad and Washington have set a tentative time limit for the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq in 2010-2011. ++ Both sides agreed to uphold a “declaration of intent,” which was signed last year. ++ Tensions are high over the new election law, as voting is expected to redistribute power in Iraq’s provinces. ++ If the legislation is belated, it would mean postponing elections until next year. ++
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The recent escalation of violence in Afghanistan and the calls to divert the US troops from Iraq make the question of ending these long and costly wars even more urgent. ++ There is only one organisation that can provide the leadership necessary to defeat the insurgencies and bring peace and stability to both countries: the UN. ++ US and its allies can never achieve these goals alone. ++ Only the
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There are many reasons to believe that Iraq is going to make it: violence is declining, US soldiers are turning province after province over to the Iraqi Security Forces, and planning withdrawals for 2009. ++ These developments should be acknowledged by the critics of the Iraq war, who underestimated the strategical importance of a constitutional Iraq. ++ Of course, a secure future for Iraq is
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US presidential candidates have been so busy campaigning they lost sight of the changes taking place in Iraq. ++ For the first time in years, the risk of a massive insurrection has diminished and there are realistic prospects for reconciliation among the Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni parts of the country. ++ Establishing a fixed deadline for the withdrawal of the US forces would not only rid the
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Obama has not retracted from his end-the-war stance which dates back to 2003 and was the key to his success over Clinton during the primaries. ++ But in so far as “full withdrawal” from Iraq, such as Iraqis want, never belonged to his aims, he has not changed policy. ++ His plans to maintain residual forces in Iraq and reserve “the right to intervene militarily,” reveal both his
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Although the plans for a long-term security arrangement between Iraq and the US have caused a wave of criticism, such an agreement is in the best interest of both countries. ++ The main objectives of Americans and Iraqis are convergent: a stable Iraq with a modern oil industry, withdrawal of coalition troops from the region and Iraqi security forces that are capable of taking command. ++ In order
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Iranian diplomacy reflects pride, self-confidence, and a decreasing fear of the US and Israel. ++ Whereas Tehran’s hard-liners are using the argument of Western weakness to justify their rejection of compromise, pragmatic voices believe it is time for Iran to negotiate and “consolidate its gains.” ++ At present, Iran’s course is unclear: “even as they talk about diplomacy, the Iranians continue
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The resurgence of the Taliban and al Qaeda demonstrates that the war in Iraq is dangerously diverting attention from the “war of necessity” in Afghanistan. ++ Rather than inflexibly planning to stay on or leave Iraq, candidates should ask whether “Washington would have more influence if it completely withdrew or negotiated a slower drawdown with the Iraqis.” ++ The chances chaos in Iraq could
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The US failed to capitalize on its initial military success in Afghanistan and what seemed to be a finished matter has now redeveloped into a serious threat. ++ “America has only itself to blame” for the current situation. ++ It was distracted with problems in Iraq, failed to eliminate al-Qaeda, and gave insurgents the opportunity to regroup in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas within
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Iraq’s disparate ethnic groups are united in their opposition to the latest American political and military intentions for the country. ++ According to Bush’s plan, occupation of Iraq could be indefinite. ++ The president should leave the task of settling a deal with the Iraqi government to his successor and be content with an extension of the UN mandate, which is soon to expire. ++ His current
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Albeit reversible, the situation is improving in Iraq as the government gains confidence and increasingly asserts its independence from the US and Iran. ++ Despite the lack of jobs, clean water, and electricity, Iraqis are benefiting from high oil prices and can hope for a normal future. ++ Both plans for precipitated withdrawal and remaining indefinitely are foolish. ++ Swift diplomacy is now
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Al-Maliki wants good relations both with Iran and with the US but ongoing tensions between the two are putting him in a difficult position. ++ The Iraqi Prime Minister cannot afford to ruffle Iran’s feathers because of the large Shia majority in Iraq, which is loyal to Tehran, but Iraq also needs Western help. ++ The UN mandate for Iraq ends on December 31, 2008, and Iran has tried hard to
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It did not take Iraq to spur dislike for Bush. ++ Yet by overstating his mistakes and cropping his successes, Germans acquired a sense of ease and superiority which they will lose when he goes. ++ The president’s catastrophic image made it possible to blame him rather than the terrorists for the situation in Afghanistan, dodge military commitments to NATO, and use Iraq as an argument to refuse
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US cooperation with Syria - “not based on shared values, but shared interests” - should replace the policy of non-engagement to support Israel, isolate Iran, and ameliorate the situation in Iraq. ++ Waiving economic sanctions against Syria could provide huge leverage when addressing issues such as Lebanon’s right to sovereignty, Israeli-Syrian peace negotiations, and
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While the private military industry has benefited enormously from contracting opportunities in Iraq, these opportunities will at some point draw to a close and the industry will need new contracts. ++ Firms will likely return to Africa where private contractors hired by the US State Department already play an important role in many countries including Sudan, Liberia, and Somalia. ++ Given the
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The current propaganda campaign against Iran is similar to that against Iraq before the US-led invasion. ++
Without Iran’s cooperation peace and stability in Iraq cannot be achieved. ++ The more immediate danger is not Iranian nuclear ambition, but the transformation of the Gulf into a theater of artificial Sunni-versus-Shia tensions. ++ Contrary to most Western news accounts, the IAEA
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Dr. Matthew Levitt is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute and founding director of their Terrorism Research Program (now renamed as above), established in the wake of the September 11 attacks. The Institute seeks to inject dispassionate, research-driven analysis—supported by fact and expertise—into the making of US Middle East policy. After a two-year tenure at the US
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The old Middle East and the secular nationalism that went along with it is being replaced by a new, modern Middle East in which political Islam and anti-Western nationalism play a decisive role. ++ There is now a serious threat of “a confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia for sub-regional supremacy, and between Iran and the US for regional hegemony.” ++ The entire state system in the
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According to the US, Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism causing heavy casualties in Iraq. ++ Iranian Hussein Shariatmadari denies this with the claim Iran shares Iraq’s interest in ending US occupation and armed militias. ++ Though the discovery of Iranian weaponry in Iraq suggests Iran is arming Shiite militias, Iranian authorities maintain they would sell weaponry to any party. ++ US
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While Obama upholds transformation, Mc Cain’s intentions suggest a great deal of continuity based on American power considerations. ++ Obama emphasizes negotiation and the use of the US “potential for attraction instead of its capacity for duress.” ++ In practice, pressure groups’ and congress’ likely resistance to multilateralism indicate that Mc Cain’s
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A recent poll showed that 70% of Iraqis believe US should leave because they are fuelling tensions. ++ Americans believe US should stay to curb sectarian violence and promote democracy. ++ Even Petraeus recognizes the solution is economic and political rather than military. ++ Breaching the gap of perception of the war requires a dialogue including Iraqi civil society, government, and religious
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Recent Arab public opinion polls confirm a “gap between the aims of American policies and Arab public perceptions of the US.” ++ They also highlight that the US could improve its image by brokering peace between Palestine and Israel and by withdrawing from Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula. ++ While US policies are clearly opposed, middle ground could be found regarding democratic values and
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Contrary to the Bush administration’s claim last week, the main interest of Iran in Iraq is not to predicate on violence but to stabilize this country. ++ To prevent the possible future aggression from the Sunnites and to stop the agitation for Kurdish autonomy, Iran should not derange the unfolding democratic process. ++ To emerge as the leading power in the Gulf, Iran needs the withdrawal of US
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A top-down model of political compromise is inapt to restore order and bring peace to Iraq’s tribal society. ++ But now, a balance of truces between hyperlocalized clans and councils is generating optimism, political progress, and a drop in ethno-sectarian violence. ++ If they hold, these networks will prevent terror and genocide, and encourage the US to help with reconstruction, peacekeeping,
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Reduction of violence in Iraq “so great as to be undeniable.” ++
Yet partisan debate over Iraq continues. ++ McCain sees success within reach, while Clinton and Obama remain locked within the “this war is lost” prism, and suggest more resources for Afghanistan. ++ Neither party wants to hear Gen. Petraeus’ “sobering but firm bottom line” that progress is real, but also “fragile” and
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Iran and the US are not doomed to remain eternal enemies. ++ The two countries share profound strategic interests such as stabilizing Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan; preventing the spread of Russian influence; and ensuring that Middle Eastern oil flow smoothly to Western markets. ++ A path towards comprehensive negotiations should be adopted as it is low cost and could yield extremely remarkable
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It is a misunderstanding of Al Qaeda’s nature and aims that leads to the fear it could implement an Islamic state in Iraq if the US troops were to leave. ++ Al Qaeda is a non-territorial global entity that antagonizes the West, disrupts existing conflicts but cannot coordinate enough key local actors so as to rule a state. ++ In Iraq, it is the Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds who play the central role.
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A Democratic candidate, if elected, needs to end the war in Iraq as promised. ++ US withdrawal would not only allow the US to make progress on domestic issues, but it would also give Iraqis an opportunity to make their own deals and decisions and could create more regional support for Iraq. ++ The idea that leaving Iraq would be “surrendering to evildoers” and simply set the stage for genocide is
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General James Conway of the US Marine Corps advocates the re-deployment of a large contingent of his men into Afghanistan, which would be extracted from the Marine presence in Iraq’s Anbar province, writes Gordon Lubald for the Christian Science Monitor.
In the absence of prospective troops from other countries, Gen. Conway argues it is necessary to improve the standing of the United States in
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The kinship of tribes is key to building stability and establishing a balance of justice in areas like Iraq and Pakistan with both eroding and nascent political institutions.
The disorderly and anarchic conditions in these countries, says Robert D. Kaplan in The Atlantic, answer to the overlapping actions of multiple groups seeking to maximize their power. In these lawless places, it is not
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Iraqi insurgents are increasingly powerful because they constantly learn and adapt in the same way that the open-source movement revolutionized software development. Technological might has proved ineffectual in the face of this “open-source warfare,” writes Robert N. Charette in the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers’ online magazine Spectrum.
Since more of these asymmetrical
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Ankara’s belligerence threatens Iraq’s fledgling democratic institutions, and encourages other neighbors such as Iran and Syria to settle disputes within Iraqi territory, writes Jamaa Alatwani for the Iraqi newspaper Kitabat.
Cataloged by the European Union and the United States as a terrorist organization, the PKK finds opposition but also support among Iraq’s Kurdish MPs, as some remain
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The three leading Democratic presidential candidates all agreed it would be wrong to promise full troop withdrawal by 2013. However each remains determined to highlight their differing approaches to ending the war, write Jeff Zeleny and Patrick Healy for the New York Times. Speaking at a televised debate, Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Obama and Mr. Edwards were clearly divided on the issue. Edwards asserted
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Anti-Americanism in Europe has had its day, writes Stryker McGuire of Newsweek International. With Bush’s departure in sight and the gradual fading of contentions over Iraq, an amicable attitude towards the United States appears to be emerging with unlikely duo France and Germany leading the way.
However, where French President Nicholas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel both
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French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner toned down the pitch of remarks he made earlier this week on the possibility of war with Iran, this time emphasizing negotiations over the use of military measures, report Katrin Bennhold and Elaine Sciolino for the New York Times. French Intelligence fears that Iran may produce a nuclear weapon before the projected 2010-2015 window.
Kouchner
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David McKittrick of The Independent reports on secret Iraqi peace talks held recently in Helsinki, where Ex-IRA commander, Martin McGuinness met in private with 16 representatives of warring Sunni and Shiite Iraqi factions. As a former militant who took bold steps towards peace in Northern Ireland, McKittrick is a legitimate role model in trying to convince the Iraqis of the merits of peaceful
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James Glanz and Stephen Farrell of the New York Times report that the military surge in Iraq coincides with a dramatic increase in the number of internally displaced Iraqis. Analyzing data from two different humanitarian organizations, Glanz and Farrell write that the number of IDPs has more than doubled to 1.1 million, up from 499,000 in February. Most notable is the sectarian division: Shiite
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John Cavanagh, Anita Dancs, and Miriam Pemberton at the Institute for Foreign Policy and the National Priorities Project argue that US security would not suffer if one third of the Pentagon’s $650 billion-budget were cut in 2008. Most of the savings would come from ending the US involvement in Iraq, closing several overseas bases, and dismantling of redundant and economically inefficient weapons
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In the upcoming 2008 US presidential elections, it appears as though accusing one’s opponent of being French will remain an effective strategy. Guillemette Faure, author of La France Made in the USA, reports that four years after de Villepin voted “non” to the Iraq War at the UN Security Council, anti-French sentiment still hovers at 57 % in the US. Although the US and France have worked
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Chatham House researchers John Mitchell and Glada Lahn advise that although production abroad by Asian national oil companies (ANOCs) is small right now, its relevance to global energy security could change if ANOCs gain significant positions in Iraq or Iran. ANOC host governments are attracted to such Middle East investment by the lower requirements for transparency or diminished social
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