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Open Think Tank Articles
David Neil Lebhar: While the race between Obama and McCain is too close to call, US voters and the world must realize that the two candidates’ foreign policy positions are not especially different. Furthermore, due to economic instability, domestic concerns, and a shifting geo-political balance, the next president will have to react to international issues through re-defined multilateralism.
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Reidar Visser: US presidential candidates, Democrats and Republicans alike, continue to ignore the shifting political realities in Iraq. Obama and Biden consistently portray the principal dynamic of Iraqi politics as a struggle between Shiites and Sunnis, whereas the main front in Baghdad is between two essentially cross-sectarian coalitions.
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From the Editorial Team: In his nomination speech, the Democratic presidential candidate reiterates his commitment to direct diplomacy with Iran and his hawkish position on Pakistan. What do you make of Barack Obama’s security policy positions?
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From the Editorial Team: Former German foreign minister Fischer criticizes the attitude of German politicians who refuse to send troops to the south of Afghanistan. He accuses Germany of conducting a security policy of “free riding.” What do you think? Is he right?
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valentine anatolevich akishkin: The economic downturn and the rise of new centers of power will lead to a shift in US foreign policy doctrine, allowing the country to readjust itself to new world challenges by employing more agreeable and less costly means.
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Richard Wales: The presidential election campaigns are shaped by corporate interests. Barack Obama is part of the same institutionalized political elite as Bush. The promised change can only be achieved by a new generation.
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David Francis: Obama’s popularity should not be interpreted as a shift in German policy towards the United States. Many officials I spoke with while reporting from Berlin earlier this year said Germany will continue to act in its own interests no matter who is in the White House.
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Matthias Stephan Fifka: Even if Obama enjoys much more sympathy abroad and is being received like a rock star by the public, his foreign policy would not differ essentially from McCain’s. The biggest discrepancy between the candidates are the expectations of the Europeans, who are likely to be disillusioned with Obama as president.
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Rüdiger Lentz: Obama’s speech at the Victory Column in Berlin, impressive as it was, contained more empty slogans than substance. This was not the radical change he promised during his primary campaign. His charisma might not be enough to win the elections.
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Video interviews at Obama rally in Berlin: The majority of Germans support Barack Obama for the US presidency, not because they believe he will radically change US policy, but because he is expected to return it to the familiar pre-Bush trajectory.
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Anne Applebaum: Obama’s visit to Europe signifies a change in America’s political culture – it shows American voters are aware of the damage the current administration has done to America’s image and are not indifferent to how their country is perceived abroad.
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Barack Obama Speech: “I will give our military a new mission on my first day in office: ending this war. (…) Let me be clear: We must be as careful getting out of Iraq as we were careless getting in. We can safely redeploy our combat brigades at a pace that would remove them in 16 months.”
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Jan Techau: Europe’s approach to the US will be decisive for the future of transatlantic relations. Though Bush will leave, the US will not be in a position to radically change its foreign policy. It is time for Europeans to become more American and acknowledge that the era of justifiable disagreement with America is over.
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Thomas Speckmann: Examining the foreign policy of US presidents since Kennedy reveals that Germany is generally better off with the conservatives and that German military involvement will always be expected, regardless of who is elected.
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Marek Swierczynski: The farewell trip of the 43rd US president shows who and what really matters for America in Europe. George Bush visits America’s traditional allies and friends but emphasizes the role of the EU as the main transatlantic link and one that may play an important role during the next presidency.
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Rüdiger Lentz: In US presidential elections, Europeans tend to overwhelmingly support the Democratic candidate. Yet, Europe misplaced its bets in both 2000 and 2004. The qualities that Europeans value in a US president are not the same ones that matter to Americans. Europe should tone down its expectations, and come to terms with the possibility of another GOP presidency.
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Julianne Smith: If elected, Obama will attempt to reestablish a strong partnership with Europe. He should come closer to his European partners on issues such as climate change and international law, but will expect greater cooperation and support for US policies in the Middle East and Afghanistan.
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Daniel Rackowski: As many Europeans ponder about the putative blessings of the post-Bush era, it is only opportune to ask how the at-times strained transatlantic relationship might evolve in the future.
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Rüdiger Lentz: As Obamania continues to sweep the nation, it appears as if the Republicans’ worst fear will come true.
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Christian Andreas Morris: References to transatlantic relations by the front-runners to the Democratic nomination are quite vague and generic. Clinton has shown more interest in Europe than Obama.
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Global Must Read Articles
Red states vs. blue states, the red army against the blue, and Palin is the “Katyusha rocket” of the red forces. ++ The culture wars in the US must end fast. ++ The McCain campaign has used tactics that exacerbate the cultural differences of “conservative” and “liberal” Americans. ++ Even if Obama wins, the culture wars won’t end immediately - America needs to recall the true meaning of “liberal”
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Osama Bin Laden called Iraq the “central front” in his fight against the US - he was right. ++ Obama/Biden only focus on the past; they still think invading Iraq was a mistake, a distraction from Afghanistan. ++ Their obsession misses the point: “The essence of being a good commander in chief is appreciating the connections among these theaters.” ++ FDR fought the Nazi’s before assailing Japan,
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For Republicans, the financial crash of Sept. 29, as the stock market fell over 700 points, will be remembered as the day which began their “exile” from political power. ++ Republicans in the House voted against their own party’s bailout plan by a margin of 2 to 1, emphasizing their divided and seemingly leaderless state. ++ While the presidential race is still uncertain, it is obvious that
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Obama’s foreign policy proposals are too vapid; far from incipient or novel, we are subjected to his recycled ideas - which, albeit, were fresh when first espoused in the face of Bush dogmatism. ++ “These ideas have lost their oomph among discerning voters.” ++ Catching Bin Laden, sending more troops to Afghanistan, and unconditional support for Georgia are all calls from the neocon playbook.
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Obama’s overall environmental record is shorter, but looks better than McCain’s. ++ Both want to use technology that is not ready and neither plan is as clear as it should be, but Obama wants to move the country away from oil as quickly as possible while McCain will leave it up to the market. ++ Obama plans to implement a cap-and-trade system and enforce strict transportation
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McCain’s perception of the Middle East conflict deems Israel a critical ally. ++ McCain accepts the military facet of the conflict, while Obama considers diplomacy the tool to triumph over a minority of Islamic extremists. ++ The root cause of Islamic terrorism is also disputed: McCain believes it is an ideological conflict, and Obama assumes that it is driven by poverty and despair. ++ Obama
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Presidential debates cannot change the fundamentals of an election. ++ Reagan’s poor opening debate against Mondale didn’t keep him from a 49-state landslide, and Kennedy’s strong debate against Nixon didn’t insure his victory - a surge in the Catholic vote did. ++ While McCain performed well on Friday, the fundamentals haven’t changed: unpopular president, more Democratic voter registration, and
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The US has done the right thing when it launched a rescue plan. ++ Those who argue how vast the initiative is are wrong because they underestimate the extensiveness of the US economy. ++ However, the true impact of the expansion of public spending lies in politics, because there is simply not much money left over for areas such as health care or alternative energy. ++ So even if Obama is elected
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Immigration remains an open problem in the US and is now on the campaign agendas. ++ Obama still supports the three pillars of extensive reform: tougher enforcement, expanded legal immigration and a path to citizenship to illegal immigrants who are already in the US. ++ McCain, on the other hand, is leading a party whose members mainly oppose the path to citizenship and give priority to border
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Due to the financial crisis, the attack on the US embassy in Yemen, and the latest tropical storms, the tone of the US presidential campaign has become nervous and angst-ridden. ++ Even if people who consider the economy to be the most important reason to vote for Obama, there is a “deeper politics of fear that runs against Obama.” ++ While Obama offers a dream of how the world could be, McCain
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McCain’s campaign is turning everything into a cultural wedge issue - including energy policy. ++ Republicans who favor the exploitation of more and more oil ignore the need for an energy policy that diminishes the US dependence on this resource. ++ Dependence reduces the US ability to compete in the age of globalization and endangers its economic and military power. ++ McCain had better
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A McCain victory could have consequences that reach far beyond party politics. ++ Enormous numbers of young voters support Obama, a generation that could easily become cynical should this seemingly obvious election go sour. ++ Likewise, African Americans could conclude that if Obama can’t do it, no black American ever will. ++ Moreover, the repercussions around the world could be more radical;
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McCain’s vice presidential pick, Sarah Palin, is accused of lacking experience in security and foreign policy issues. ++ She is contrasted to Obama’s running mate, Joseph Biden, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee. ++ His experience, however, doesn’t translate into expertise: during his 35 years in the Senate Biden has shown that his judgement in national security
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“Politics is the art of communicating intimacy to a crowd” and Obama’s latest speech proved that he is very good at it. ++ However, commentators do not ask if he can win, but if he should win and question the US readiness for a black, elitist president. ++ However, to many people outside the US the next American president is the difference between life and death and they clearly
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If Obama is elected, a VP Joe Biden will likely mean positive developments for troubled US-Iran relations. ++ Biden’s experiences with Iranian diplomacy legitimize Obama’s call for direct contact with Tehran. ++ However, Biden’s plans to negotiate with Iran may cost Obama some Jewish votes and Biden may have to give in to a more hawkish stance. ++ But Biden’s more conciliatory approach toward
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Obama comes from the most ideological and, therefore, most dangerous part of the Democratic party. ++ He supports policies that will aggravate many international problems. ++ Despite all this, he should be president because the probable hiatus of universal US influence that the Obama presidency may bring would mean an unforeseen break for Europe to act as an adult in world politics. ++
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When Obama visited Europe, he spoke eloquently about needing a US-EU partnership to defeat terrorism. ++ The problem is: the US already have a counterterrorism partnership with the EU and it works efficiently, despite the stereotyping media coverage of aggressive Americans and pacifist Europeans. ++ For instance, the US and the EU succeeded in stopping students in France developing new bombs for
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Obama’s popularity last
Thursday showed the desire for a responsible global power and the unwavering belief that the US should be that power. ++ But the charisma of the presidential candidate should not blur our view of the other Obama: the Realpolitiker. ++ In his speech, he made clear that neither can the US be an arrogant superpower, nor can Europe neglect its military duties, e.g. in
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The German magazine Der Spiegel featured articles about Barack Obama with such satiric headlines as “The Messiah Factor” or “Germany Meets the Superstar.” ++ These examples show that Europeans are far less excited about Obama than Americans, even if they are also looking forward to the end of the Bush administration. ++ The mocking undertone that accompanies most descriptions of Obama in the
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The German government welcomes Obama’s call for a renewal of transatlantic relations. ++ The
reactions of the public are heterogeneous: some expected a key speech and were disappointed afterwards while others liked Obama’s decision to speak as a citizen of the world. ++ Political scientist Langguth warned of a transfiguration of the US-German relationship. ++ No matter who will win the US
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The need for a renewal of transatlantic relations is widely felt among the German public and the expectations are high regarding Obama’s stance on climate protection, peace, and shared values. ++ But there will also be delicate issues arising such as economic relations between both countries and the German fear that Obama could enhance protectionism in the US. ++ Moreover, the canditates’ plan
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Obama has achieved astonishing levels of popularity abroad. ++ Foreigners, however, had better temper their excitement. ++ A “skilled tactician,” Obama tends to shrewdly adapt his discourse to his audience and since, if elected, he would in any case be constrained by a heavily Democratic Congress, chances are “what they see is not precisely what they will get.” ++ Most importantly, Obama still
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Over the last few weeks, Obama has confused both Arabs and Israelis with his notes on Palestinian suffering and the status of Jerusalem. ++ But contrary to McCain, Obama shows basic respect for the Palestinians and admits that the Israel-Palestine conflict contributes to the region’s instability. ++ Moreover, he promises to practice active, engaged mediation between Israelis and Palestinians and
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Obama has not retracted from his end-the-war stance which dates back to 2003 and was the key to his success over Clinton during the primaries. ++ But in so far as “full withdrawal” from Iraq, such as Iraqis want, never belonged to his aims, he has not changed policy. ++ His plans to maintain residual forces in Iraq and reserve “the right to intervene militarily,” reveal both his
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Although countless events and demonstrations have taken place at the gate, Obama’s intention to hold a speech divides the German political elite. ++ Merkel’s disapproval is thought to be due to her closer ties to the conservatives across the Atlantic and her East German preference for “right-wing and rather gruff figures of American politics.” ++ Most Germans however would gladly see Obama be
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The planned speech of Presidential candidate Barack Obama in front of the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin threatens to turn into a provincial farce. ++ Unlike Washington D.C., where the US federal government decides who can speak at the nation’s political sanctuaries, in Berlin, local and federal politicians use the invitation for political profiling purposes. ++ Berlin’s mayor wants to play in the
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In the end of July, Obama is scheduled to meet with Chancellor Merkel and to hold a speech at Berlin’s Brandenburg Gate. ++ He should consider saying something to the following effect: the lessons of Berlin illustrate “what far-sighted strategy can achieve” and teach shared sacrifice. ++ The transatlantic alliance depends on our shared resolve. ++ “I’m sure I can learn from Europe on universal
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Many parallels can be drawn between Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter at the time of 1976 presidential election. ++ Then, as now, war and economic stagnation created fertile ground for leaders who promise a fresh start and a change in how the US is perceived in the world. ++ Obama is in danger of being branded with the mark of Pres. Carter who has gone down in history as a weak president. ++ He
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Working towards a nuclear free world is a necessity now that the cold war is over. ++ Both presidential candidates have announced they would commit the US to this goal. ++ The next president should lead the freeze on the production of material for nuclear weapons and work closely with Congress and allies to strengthen the international non-proliferation regime. ++ A nuclear fuel bank, which would
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Obama enjoys astonishing and unprecedented support in Europe. ++ The anti-Americanism fueled by Bush may have subsided, but this international popularity is not necessarily beneficial for a candidate who primarily needs to convince the electorate at home. ++ Europeans would be wise to lower their expectations: “once a President Obama engages with America’s allies, he will also expect them to
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Obama should readjust his Iraq strategy like many other former opponents of the war did. ++ US will be remembered as much for how it got out of Iraq as for how it got in. ++ A precipitous withdrawal may give Iranians the chance to dominate Iraq. ++ Obama should acknowledge the need to stay tough there, even as he continues to claim credit for having been against the project. ++ Democrats may be
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On both sides of the Atlantic, politicians are certain that a new US President will mean big change on a broad range of issues, from climate change to Iraq. ++ In gearing up for a more “enlightened” era of transatlantic relations, governments and media have given little attention to Bush’s remaining days in office. ++ Although public opinion in Europe clearly reveals an Obama preference, Berlin,
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Perhaps by electing Obama as president, pro-American reformers in the Middle East will no longer feel so alienated. ++ According to expat experiences in Egypt, locals are hoping for an Obama victory because of his ethnicity and Muslim background. ++ Such a groundbreaking turnaround, only seven years after 9/11, would be unthinkable in those Mideastern countries whose futures are buried in the
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Official US presidential candidates have been selected but voters now face the difficult task of distinguishing between “the politics of winning”, which shore up popularity, and “the politics of governing”, which focus on ability. ++ Obama’s lack of conviction contrasts with McCain’s stubbornness, but regarding domestic policy neither has made satisfactory suggestions. ++ Assuming Republicans
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Hillary Clinton has admitted defeat, as for Obama, the battle has only just begun. ++ This year’s US Presidential campaign rotates on an axis between character and experience. ++ McCain offers the American people know-how, while Obama guarantees hope. ++ Recent polls have shown that the candidates are neck and neck. ++ What is it the American people want, or rather, need? ++ The message of
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Obama’s nomination as the democratic presidential candidate initiated enthusiasm abroad. ++ Many nations feel Obama as president “could help to reduce anti-US sentiment and even turn it around.” ++ In Europe Obama has strong support. ++ Many Germans see him as a transformational figure like Kennedy or King. ++ Israel is concerned: “in foreign policy toward the Middle East, he’s
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Striking differences between McCain and Obama on issues such as Iraq, the economy, global warming, energy, and the international standing of the US, mean the real debate can now begin. ++ Clinton should rally behind Obama and he should make a place for her supporters, since both would enable him to tone up and substantiate his campaign. ++ Obama needs to counter McCain with concrete suggestions
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The personality of the US election winner will fundamentally shape transatlantic relations, but the fact remains that today the priorities of the EU and US differ more than ever before. ++ In the multipolar world that has succeeded the Cold War, there is no longer something “inevitable about the transatlantic alliance.” ++ Europeans who are dreaming of Obama as president should both temper their
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In order to win the presidency Obama must quickly readjust his strategy. ++ The long and fierce battle between the two democratic candidates has alienated supporters from both sides. ++ In the May 20 Kentucky primary, 2/3 of Clinton supporters said they will vote for the Republican candidate or not vote at all if Clinton is not the nominee.++ Though voters now prefer Democratic policy positions
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Obama has claimed the Democratic nomination, but Clinton will remain an important figure over the next months. ++ Clinton “did well among working-class whites, older voters and women” so her eventual endorsement of Obama will be crucial. ++ Clinton would do little to help balance Obama’s ticket and he cannot afford to offer her the vice-presidential nomination unless he is certain she will
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The foreign policy discussion between McCain and Obama has helped portray the former as uncompromising and the latter as visionary. ++ Since US strategy in Iraq has required diplomats to negotiate with Shiite militiamen, Sunni insurgents or Iranian counterparts for years now, the candidates’ debate regarding their respective approach to negotiation is both unrealistic and hypocritical. ++ In any
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Europeans’ support for Obama based solely on his Democratic credentials ignores his resistance to free trade which is something on which Europe depends. ++ “His ‘Invest in America’ policy can hardly be topped as protectionist mindset, and his ‘Fair Trade’ policies would lead to a restriction of world trade.” ++ Despite looming years of economic austerity and the US’s loss of power, both Clinton
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Iran, which is the OPEC’s second’s largest exporter, has enough natural gas to alleviate Western Europe’s uncomfortable reliance on Russia’s energy exports. ++ Disputes over pipelines, political blocking, and current US sanctions on capital inflow into Iran stand in the way of exploiting this huge potential. ++ Much depends on the coming elections, both in the US and Iran,
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In foreign policy, both Republicans and Democrats favor negotiation. ++ Yet McCain realizes “where diplomacy is appropriate, and where more fortitude is required” and this creates a distinction. ++ There are real downsides to the unconditional upholding of soft diplomacy. ++ Besides the cost of negotiation in terms of time and resources, it provides terrorists or leaders of state sponsors of
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The campaigning for the US Presidential Election has gotten ugly on Middle East foreign policy. ++ In his speech to the Israeli Knesset, President Bush accused Obama of appeasing with Hamas. ++ It is “hard to remember any president abusing the prestige of his office in as crude a way as Bush did yesterday.” ++ Senator McCain made Hamas a campaign issue in the first place. ++ Practicing
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Obama advocates leading open and direct negotiations with everyone, from Iran to Cuba. ++ His opposition to the Iraq war, his rational stance on Iran, and his “understanding of US imperialism” suggest he will reshape American foreign policy. ++ Yet Obama’s readiness to compromise does not apply to the Middle East. ++ Since Obama’s presidency would provide for high expectations, the predictable
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While Obama upholds transformation, Mc Cain’s intentions suggest a great deal of continuity based on American power considerations. ++ Obama emphasizes negotiation and the use of the US “potential for attraction instead of its capacity for duress.” ++ In practice, pressure groups’ and congress’ likely resistance to multilateralism indicate that Mc Cain’s
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Obama and Clinton may agree on many issues, but they champion two very different approaches towards US foreign policy in the Middle East. ++ Obama opposes the notion of a “clash of civilizations” and supports engaging moderates and democrats in the Muslim world. ++ Clinton would follow a path similar to that of the Bush administration and focus on defending US allies and deterring Iran.
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Still depending on US hard power, Europe has found a new role in the soft power balance to the US. ++ Europe can’t continue in this role with a new President Obama. ++ Obama’s US would gain international reputation and call in Europe for more hard power burden sharing. ++ But the US remains the indispensable nation so far. ++ Therefore Obama’s US is best for Europe because it will become a strong
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While Jim Webb would have many weaknesses on the campaign trail, he could be a great vice president to Obama. ++ Senator Webb’s military experience outstrips that of any other likely democratic VP candidate, his authenticity gains him respect, and he could help Obama win in several red states. ++ He would be viewed as a cultural conservative and genuine democratic, and would symbolically balance
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Obama’s speech on race spoke to Europe and provided insights into the imperfections of US democracy. ++ Obama succeeded in addressing the problems of his nation, something which is rarely accomplished
in Europe. ++ The bureaucratic language which fills European politics fails to clearly discuss or solve societal issues as is made clear in Germany by the mental wall which is being built between
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In recent years, the Democratic Party has tended to gravitate towards protectionism. ++ The denigration of freer trade is characteristic of Democratic candidates during the primaries. ++ Obama’s trade policy credentials however, suggest he is likely to be a friendlier president to multilateral free trade. ++ “Hope,” “change” and an international outlook are incompatible with protectionism.
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