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The ongoing diplomatic wrangling over the future status of Kosovo risks triggering massive international tensions. Many European political leaders fear that a unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo—without UN Security Council backing, but subsequently recognized by Washington—would deteriorate relations with Russia and could drive a wedge through the 27-nation EU. In the nightmare scenario, some EU members (Great Britain, for example) would follow the US lead and recognize an independent Kosovo, while others (Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria) would support the assertion by Belgrade that an independent Kosovo blatantly violates Serbia’s territorial integrity. The remaining EU members—including key powers such as Germany, France, and Italy—would suddenly be caught in the middle of an ugly international “recognition race” over Kosovo.

In February this year, UN special envoy Martti Ahtisaari presented a status proposal that would put Kosovo on track for eventual statehood and independence under temporary EU supervision. While the plan carefully avoids the word “independence,” it gives Kosovo the right to negotiate and conclude international agreements, establish a Kosovo Security Force and adopt national symbols. Serbia is firmly opposed to Kosovo’s independence and has already rejected the Ahtisaari proposal. Moscow has also made clear that it would veto any UN Security Council resolution which imposed a settlement on Belgrade. While the Kosovo political leadership has reluctantly embraced the Ahtisaari plan, the province’s prime minister has already warned that Kosovo would declare independence unilaterally if Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution.

The idea of granting independence (if necessary against the objections of Belgrade and Moscow) to Kosovo increasingly resonates among top Bush administration officials and influential lawmakers from both parties on Capitol Hill. During a recent visit to Albania, President Bush told cheering crowds that “At some point in time, sooner rather than later, you’ve got to say, ‘Enough is enough. Kosovo is independent.’” Bush, whose approval ratings are at record lows, must have enjoyed the hero’s welcome he was given by Kosovo’s next-door neighbor and ethnic kin. Bush’s popularity in Albania, a majority Muslim country, is solely due to his strong support for an independent Kosovo. From the perspective of many other European countries, however, his remarks just added to existing concerns over a nasty Kosovo showdown.

The Kosovo Albanians are getting increasingly impatient with the status quo. Their restlessness could trigger violent clashes, with destabilizing consequences for the 17,000-strong NATO-led KFOR troops stationed there. When I discussed this issue with an American diplomat who has lengthy experience in Kosovo, he warned that not resolving the final status could adversely impact countries like Macedonia, Montenegro and even Serbia’s Preshevo Valley: “The Kosovars and other ethnic Albanians are ready to fight for Kosovo, and they have the weapons to do so.”

It remains to be seen what, if anything, will come out of the July 1-2 “lobster summit” between Bush and Putin at Kennebunkport. President Bush should certainly pick his fights with Moscow carefully. After all, Moscow’s constructive cooperation is valuable, if not indispensable, on a number of other international dossiers that affect core U.S. national security interests, ranging from the ongoing nuclear crisis with Iran to the establishment of a missile defense shield in Europe. If Bush overplays his hand on Kosovo, Moscow could lash back and deny Washington the support needed on these other issues.

America’s European allies want to avoid the deep transatlantic and trans-European rifts that a unilateral US recognition of Kosovo’s independence would cause. Furthermore, in the case of Germany, any attempt to create an independent Kosovo without a new UN Security council resolution would also remove the legal mandate for the 2,200 Bundeswehr soldiers stationed there as part of KFOR.


This article first appeared as a blog entry on the WorldwideStandard.com and is reprinted with permission from the author. It has been modified from its original version. Click here. to view the original article.


Ulf Gartzke is a contributing blogger covering German / European issues for the Weekly Standard, one of America’s leading conservative journals. He has also served as the Director of the Hanns-Seidel-Foundation’s Washington Office since July 2004. Before joining the Hanns-Seidel-Foundation, Mr. Gartzke worked at the World Economic Forum in Geneva, where he was in charge of the Forum’s engagement with the global automotive industry. Mr. Gartzke has previously worked for DaimlerChrysler’s Washington Affairs Office, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the World Bank in Paris, and the Christian Social Union (CSU) party headquarters in Munich. The opinions expressed in this article reflect his personal views.


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