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Political Risk in North Africa
Transnational Crime in North Africa
Over the past decade, the expanding threats from global jihadism and the sudden escalation of irregular migration in the Mediterranean have galvanized international attention and prompted prioritised support to the security infrastructure and border capacity of the states in the Maghreb. These actions, in response to the dominant threats of terrorists and migrants, have broadly been assumed to also cover the requirements of the region in terms of responding to the subsidiary, yet not inconsiderable, concern of organized crime.
read more
Youth Unemployment: North Africa’s Ticking Time Bomb
“Aish, karama, hurriya” (Bread, dignity, freedom) was one of the most popular slogans during the 2011 rolling protests which became labelled the “Arab Spring”. This simple hymn, with its colloquial variations, captures the socio-economic character of the protests and...
read more
Governing ungoverned spaces: The case of Libya
The collapse of Libya into failed statehood following its 2011 revolution has been a widely lamented and yet largely misunderstood and understudied phenomenon. The general narrative suggests that this failure followed the 2014 civil-war, which ruptured the state, generated parallel administrations, and further fractured Libya’s militia-centric security provisions. The fact that the migration crisis erupted, and the city of Sirte fell to Daesh in 2015 is considered testament to this narrative which has underscored most international attempts to stabilise Libya through reconciling political factions.
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The Brewing Storm: Climate Security Risks in a Fast-Warming North Africa
North Africa is by most measures already an exceedingly hostile environment. It has relatively little arable land, next to no rainfall beyond the narrow coastal strip, and extreme temperature highs, which regularly top 45°C. Such is the region’s stark aridity that one can travel from the Nile river to the Atlantic Ocean, some 4000km (2500 miles), without stumbling on a single surface water source. These natural challenges have long posed considerable governance difficulties for regional states, who have struggled to bring development or prosperity to their poor, unsettled desert interiors. That failure has contributed to much of the Sahara’s emergence as a lawless node of discontent and instability.
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Energy in North Africa: Challenges and Opportunities
North Africa represents one of the most important oil and gas producing regions in the world, and has the potential to be a renewable energy powerhouse as well. Its geographic situation makes it a crossroads between Europe, Africa and the Middle East, and an important transit corridor for global energy markets. Today, North African countries face a range of pressing socio-economic challenges, including solving the problems of poverty and high levels of structural unemployment, in the context of fast demographic growth. Energy is an essential commodity enabling socio-economic development. The current energy situation in the countries is characterized by a rapid increase of energy demand, low energy efficiency and low domestic energy prices due to extensive and universal consumption subsidies.
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Jihadi groups in North Africa: Spotlight on Algeria and Egypt
North Africa has traditionally been a region in which Al-Qaeda, particularly its regional franchise, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), has been dominant. However, the rise of Islamic State (IS) caused deep divisions within Al-Qaeda affiliated groups, as well...
read more
China’s emerging diplomatic and economic presence in North Africa
North Africa matters to China. In strategic terms, it is part of China’s overarching political strategy known as the ‘Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation’. The aim of this self-assigned historic mission is to return China to prosperity and prestige. Its is...
read more
Russia’s growing influence in North Africa
While Moscow’s Syria intervention has captured much of the world’s attention, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s vision in the region always spanned beyond Syria alone. Since coming to power, Putin prioritized restoration of Russia’s image as a great power. This goal...
read more
Troubled waters ahead: The restless Maghreb
2019 is a big year for politics in the Maghreb. In April, Algeria is due to vote on whether to return President Bouteflika for a fifth mandate with few doubting the results, but on Friday 22 February, large protests broke out in cities all across Algeria in opposition...
read moreRussia 2030
The future of Russia-China relations
Russia’s policy towards China has been one of adaptation and accommodation. Despite increasing asymmetry in power between the two states, Moscow and Beijing have reinforced cooperation and managed to overcome a number of challenges. At the same time, Russia and China have not transformed their relationship into a fully-fledged alliance.
read more
The Future of the Arctic is Russian. Or is It?
One look at the map of the Arctic allows us to understand why the region is strategically important to Russia. In control of nearly half of the latitudinal circle, vast natural resources and militarily critical parts of the region, Moscow has both high stakes and a unique position to influence the regional developments.
read more
The uncertain future of Russia’s domestic politics
Something seems to be happening in Russian society. Despite the small size of protests compared to the whole of the population, their societal and political resonance has become stronger than before. Citizens appear to be more determined to protest. And it seems that only Putinʼs interventions can calm down those regularly erupting grievances.
read more
Russia’s growing influence in North Africa
While Moscow’s Syria intervention has captured much of the world’s attention, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s vision in the region always spanned beyond Syria alone. Since coming to power, Putin prioritized restoration of Russia’s image as a great power. This goal...
read more
Brexit in the Age of Hybrid Threats
2019 will be remembered as the year of Brexit: bar an extension or cancellation, the UK will cease to be a member of the European Union. Even in the benign geopolitical climate, such an event would represent a significant setback to Europe as a project of peace,...
read moreArctic Futures
Petroleum Resources of the Arctic Ocean: A Broken Promise?
Over ten years ago, the US Geological Survey estimated that over 22% of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas resources are located in the Arctic, most of it offshore. Since then, there has been a string of reports about the ensuing ‘race’, ‘fight’, and ‘scramble’ for these resources. But the predicted rush for Arctic resources has not begun.
read more
The Future of the Arctic is Russian. Or is It?
One look at the map of the Arctic allows us to understand why the region is strategically important to Russia. In control of nearly half of the latitudinal circle, vast natural resources and militarily critical parts of the region, Moscow has both high stakes and a unique position to influence the regional developments.
read more
The Dragon looks to the North: China’s growing role in the Arctic
Due to new economic opportunities offered by the Arctic, many non-Arctic states have become interested in the region. Notably, China has begun to describe itself as a ‘near-Arctic state’ and renamed the series of planned Arctic shipping routes ‘the Polar Silk Road’....
read moreChina’s Global Role
The future of Russia-China relations
Russia’s policy towards China has been one of adaptation and accommodation. Despite increasing asymmetry in power between the two states, Moscow and Beijing have reinforced cooperation and managed to overcome a number of challenges. At the same time, Russia and China have not transformed their relationship into a fully-fledged alliance.
read more
The Dragon looks to the North: China’s growing role in the Arctic
Due to new economic opportunities offered by the Arctic, many non-Arctic states have become interested in the region. Notably, China has begun to describe itself as a ‘near-Arctic state’ and renamed the series of planned Arctic shipping routes ‘the Polar Silk Road’....
read more
What we’re reading: Brexit lessons, Chinese influence, America’s polarization
Welcome to ‘What we’re reading’ – our new reading list on Atlantic Community. We would like to use this feature to share and highlight interesting, engaging, thought-provoking papers and podcasts on the state of transatlantic relations.
read more
China’s emerging diplomatic and economic presence in North Africa
North Africa matters to China. In strategic terms, it is part of China’s overarching political strategy known as the ‘Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation’. The aim of this self-assigned historic mission is to return China to prosperity and prestige. Its is...
read more
China’s Trojan Herd
Through its “Made in China 2025” industry strategy, China is making great strides to become the global leader in high-tech industries and manufacturing. The initiative was launched in 2015 as part of a government funded effort for Beijing to achieve its goal of surpassing the likes of the US and Germany to dominate global tech and automation by 2049
read more
From Geopolitics to Singularity: Transatlantic Relations in the 21st Century
Let’s be traditional first: The main purpose of the transatlantic relationship in the 21st century will look familiar to those who have studied its history since 1949: To prevent a situation from emerging in which Europeans feel they need to call Moscow first, instead of Washington, in questions of international politics. Add Beijing to the equation, and you get an idea of how daunting the task will be.
Transatlantic relations are the permanent suspension of conventional geopolitics for the purpose of limiting other powers’ influence over a Europe they could otherwise own. Look at the map, and you understand that, based on size, wealth, population and location, it is Russia that should dominate Western and Central Europe. It does not do so because America’s presence and promise of security to Europe creates an artificial barrier that Moscow has been unable to overcome since the end of World War II. With NATO and EU expansion, this barrier has moved eastward by a few hundred kilometers, and this is where, if all goes well, it will remain for some time to come.
Community
What we’re reading: Leadership Changes, Chinese Challenges, Transatlantic Perspectives
Welcome to a new edition of our reading list. This month, we look at leadership changes in Ukraine, Austria, India and the UK, European strategic autonomy, the latest in transatlantic relations and new insights in global development.
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What we’re reading: NATO at 70, Global Trends, Climate Change
This month, we look at what think tanks think about NATO at 70 and what they see as the big Global Trends shaping international politics. We hope you will enjoy our selection. Feel free to suggest your favourite reads via Twitter or Facebook.
read more
What we’re reading: Brexit lessons, Chinese influence, America’s polarization
Welcome to ‘What we’re reading’ – our new reading list on Atlantic Community. We would like to use this feature to share and highlight interesting, engaging, thought-provoking papers and podcasts on the state of transatlantic relations.
read more
2018 In Review: A Letter from Our Editorial Team
The debates around the Atlantic Community in 2018 showed us that something is changing in transatlantic relations. This becomes obvious when reflecting on the thoughts of our contributors on how the developments in transatlantic relations have impacted their own countries and areas of expertise. From Washington to Berlin, from London to Tokyo, our contributors have given us their analyses, thoughts, fears, and hopes for the state of transatlantic relations this past year and prepare us for what lies ahead in 2019.
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“Led Into the Fork”: The Importance of Close Transatlantic Relations in Estonia
“Led into the fork” is an expression in Estonia that indicates a very difficult, if not an almost inescapable situation. The potential disintegration of the Atlantic community is a “fork” situation for Estonia. Therefore a united and cooperative transatlantic...
read more
What Is The Atlantic Community For And Do We Still Need It?
The liberal democratic values upon which the Atlantic community has been built and prospering since the end of the Second World War seem to be in retreat. The US, previously the foremost champion of the liberal world order, shows protectionist and even isolationist...
read more
The State of Transatlantic Affairs in the Era of Trump
A lot has been – and will be – said about the current state of Transatlantic relations, not as if we haven’t experienced a similar divide after the Iraqi invasion of 2003. One of my mentors once said, Europe loves to hate Republican presidents, and if we look at the...
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Why Franco-German Defence Cooperation Is Difficult, But Without Alternative
Since the 1963 Elysee Treaty and the ensuing reconciliation process between hereditary enemies – Europe’s 20th century geopolitical miracle – France and Germany have been the driving force in European integration. Since the inception of this process, defence has been on the agenda. On paper, everything is always great in Franco-German relations, both bilaterally and in a larger European context. But when it comes to defence, Franco-German relations prove to be rather complicated.
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Brexit and Defence Negotiations
In the enthusiasm about the EU’s numerous new defence initiatives in Germany, a discussion of the consequences of Britain’s withdrawal from the union is often curiously absent. Close alignment between post-Brexit Britain and the EU27 in the...
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Trumping Transatlantic Relations
President Trump’s last international trip to the G7 Summit resulted in the worst meeting of its kind since its inception, given his outburst at America’s usual allies, and was compounded by the contrast a day later with his cordial meeting with North Korea’s Kim Jung Un in Singapore. Many Transatlanticists were prepared for the worst as Trump made his way to NATO and the UK before seeing Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki. The good news, is that the NATO summit went better than expected, though many commentators still called it the worst in history. The bad news, however, is that despite lowered expectations, damage was still done to transatlantic relations. The question now is: how severe and long-lasting will this damage be?
read more
Zero-Sum Games, Media, Megalomania & Cold Calculation
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin both celebrate the summit in Helsinki as a success, showing once again their mastery of public relations. Cold negotiating Putin and the intuitive American president seem to have dealt with several open conflicts in a constructive manner. Yet, their logic of geopolitics and zero-sum games doesn’t allow for much long-term détente – lest for their European partners.
read more
Beyond the NATO Summit: Why There Is Long-Term Transatlantic Trouble Ahead
NATO summits are usually highly organized events. Heads of State and Government adopt previously negotiated decisions and define work plans up to the next summit. Above all, they aim to demonstrate unity and solidarity so that friend and foe alike believe that the NATO allies will defend each other in the event of a crisis. But this summit threatens to disrupt this process, because no one knows how US President Trump will behave. Will we see a revival of a brash Mr. Trump G7 Summit when the US President retrospectively ‘unsigned’ the communiqué via tweet? Or will he act as a patriarch, whose stubborn grumblings are ultimately met with cooperation, and keep the family bound together?
read moreEuropean Security and Brexit
EU Strategic Partnerships: A model for future EU-UK relations?
Assuming the UK and EU stick to their respective red lines on sovereignty and autonomy, a future security partnership is likely to be modeled technically on ones the EU already has. In this case, even an EU-UK security partnership unprecedented in ambition will fall well short of the cooperation reserved for EU members—at a time when that cooperation is becoming more consequential in the global arena.
read more
EU-UK Security Cooperation after Brexit: Towards a ‘Special Dialogue Framework’?
“Europe is not an actor in international affairs, and does not seem likely to become one” were the opening words of a 1982 article by Hedley Bull, a prominent member of the English School of International Relations. Almost forty years later, things look quite...
read more
Why Brexit is about security
Security does and will continue to play a role in the Brexit negotiations. The main risk is that an acrimonious divorce could sour discussions to develop a strong and comprehensive EU-UK security partnership. It is in both the British and the European interest that this does not occur.
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Strategic autonomy and European security after Brexit
Although EU strategic autonomy and European strategic autonomy are different issues, one is likely the condition for the other, and vice versa. From outside the European Union, the United Kingdom would have a strong case to make that European strategic autonomy is a prerequisite of European security, and indeed a necessary precondition of EU strategic autonomy.
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Britain and European Defence: New opportunities after Brexit?
Britain is leaving the EU just as the EU is getting serious about defence cooperation; indeed, the fact that it’s getting serious about defence cooperation is linked to the departure of Britain, which consistently opposed such steps. With the UK out of the picture, the remaining EU members can integrate their defence at liberty. That leaves the UK the sole outsider, a loser as European allies form the closer union that’s necessary in order to maximise the region’s collective might.
read more
UK and Germany: Why the “quiet alliance” should not stay silent on European defence
Since the 1980s, British-German cooperation was referred to by observers in both London and Bonn (later Berlin), as the ‘quiet alliance’ (stille Allianz). A partnership that was running smoothly without seeking or receiving undue attention. Within the triangle of...
read more
Europe’s defence industry after Brexit: What role for Britain?
. While London certainly has to end the uncertainty over its exit and avoid a no-deal outcome, from the EU side, Brussels should resist impatience, move beyond bureaucratic technicalities and think of Brexit and its impact on European defence and security as a strategic issue. Ultimately, ensuring continuous cooperation is in the interest of both sides.
read more
The EU and Britain in the Western Balkans: Sustaining Cooperation after Brexit
The Western Balkans, might be right in the European Union’s backyard, however the region is geographically remote from the UK, and could become a testing ground for continued cooperation in foreign and security policy as a result. Since their interests are fundamentally aligned the EU-27 and the UK should be able to speak with one voice.
read more
European defence cooperation after Brexit: The Politics of Acronyms
Europe’s security architecture has significantly changed over the past ten years. The deteriorating security situation around Europe prompted a movement to remodel European security architecture, and more specifically a rethink of how Europeans do defence cooperation....
read moreSecurity
NATO at 70: Staying Transatlantic – Becoming More European
The times we are living in are characterised, to a far greater extent than the Cold War era, by immense strategic uncertainty and unpredictable events. In such dangerous and tumultuous times, we need institutions like NATO more than ever. The Alliance binds nations together on the basis of shared values.
read more
EU-UK Security Cooperation after Brexit: Towards a ‘Special Dialogue Framework’?
“Europe is not an actor in international affairs, and does not seem likely to become one” were the opening words of a 1982 article by Hedley Bull, a prominent member of the English School of International Relations. Almost forty years later, things look quite...
read more
Transnational Crime in North Africa
Over the past decade, the expanding threats from global jihadism and the sudden escalation of irregular migration in the Mediterranean have galvanized international attention and prompted prioritised support to the security infrastructure and border capacity of the states in the Maghreb. These actions, in response to the dominant threats of terrorists and migrants, have broadly been assumed to also cover the requirements of the region in terms of responding to the subsidiary, yet not inconsiderable, concern of organized crime.
read more
Jihadi groups in North Africa: Spotlight on Algeria and Egypt
North Africa has traditionally been a region in which Al-Qaeda, particularly its regional franchise, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), has been dominant. However, the rise of Islamic State (IS) caused deep divisions within Al-Qaeda affiliated groups, as well...
read more
China’s emerging diplomatic and economic presence in North Africa
North Africa matters to China. In strategic terms, it is part of China’s overarching political strategy known as the ‘Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation’. The aim of this self-assigned historic mission is to return China to prosperity and prestige. Its is...
read more
Russia’s growing influence in North Africa
While Moscow’s Syria intervention has captured much of the world’s attention, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s vision in the region always spanned beyond Syria alone. Since coming to power, Putin prioritized restoration of Russia’s image as a great power. This goal...
read more
European defence cooperation after Brexit: The Politics of Acronyms
Europe’s security architecture has significantly changed over the past ten years. The deteriorating security situation around Europe prompted a movement to remodel European security architecture, and more specifically a rethink of how Europeans do defence cooperation....
read more
Brexit in the Age of Hybrid Threats
2019 will be remembered as the year of Brexit: bar an extension or cancellation, the UK will cease to be a member of the European Union. Even in the benign geopolitical climate, such an event would represent a significant setback to Europe as a project of peace,...
read more
An ugly truth: Brexit and EU Justice and Home affairs
All the drama coming from the British Parliament as it tries to agree on a way to take the UK out of the EU has made for some riveting entertainment. But few people are actually thinking about the future relationship between Britain and Europe beyond trade – or the...
read more
2019’s Problem with Artificial Intelligence Isn’t the Science, It’s the Application
The hype during the last year around Artificial Intelligence (AI), AI startups, and AI graduates made Europe’s elite understand it’s entering a new era of AI. This is the dawn of third-wave AI. Now is the time for democracies to think about the crucial questions of being human in the Hybrid Age as we are at the moment profoundly ill prepared for future tech.
read more
“Led Into the Fork”: The Importance of Close Transatlantic Relations in Estonia
“Led into the fork” is an expression in Estonia that indicates a very difficult, if not an almost inescapable situation. The potential disintegration of the Atlantic community is a “fork” situation for Estonia. Therefore a united and cooperative transatlantic...
read more
What Is The Atlantic Community For And Do We Still Need It?
The liberal democratic values upon which the Atlantic community has been built and prospering since the end of the Second World War seem to be in retreat. The US, previously the foremost champion of the liberal world order, shows protectionist and even isolationist...
read moreEconomy
Youth Unemployment: North Africa’s Ticking Time Bomb
“Aish, karama, hurriya” (Bread, dignity, freedom) was one of the most popular slogans during the 2011 rolling protests which became labelled the “Arab Spring”. This simple hymn, with its colloquial variations, captures the socio-economic character of the protests and...
read more
Europe’s defence industry after Brexit: What role for Britain?
. While London certainly has to end the uncertainty over its exit and avoid a no-deal outcome, from the EU side, Brussels should resist impatience, move beyond bureaucratic technicalities and think of Brexit and its impact on European defence and security as a strategic issue. Ultimately, ensuring continuous cooperation is in the interest of both sides.
read more
China’s emerging diplomatic and economic presence in North Africa
North Africa matters to China. In strategic terms, it is part of China’s overarching political strategy known as the ‘Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation’. The aim of this self-assigned historic mission is to return China to prosperity and prestige. Its is...
read more
Troubled waters ahead: The restless Maghreb
2019 is a big year for politics in the Maghreb. In April, Algeria is due to vote on whether to return President Bouteflika for a fifth mandate with few doubting the results, but on Friday 22 February, large protests broke out in cities all across Algeria in opposition...
read more
China’s Trojan Herd
Through its “Made in China 2025” industry strategy, China is making great strides to become the global leader in high-tech industries and manufacturing. The initiative was launched in 2015 as part of a government funded effort for Beijing to achieve its goal of surpassing the likes of the US and Germany to dominate global tech and automation by 2049
read more
Urgent Need for Renegotiation
The WTO has succeeded to globally promote free trade and to economically integrate developing countries over the last 25 years. As a consequence, the WTO was probably the most successful approach in fighting global poverty in history. With the US as guarantor for a multilateral ruled-based trade order, the triumph of free trade and market economy seemed irreversible until recently. However, the US has apparently become sick of its role as ‘benevolent dictator’—not only in free trade but also in security aspects—and thus, it increasingly challenges what it has proclaimed for decades. In the light of this remarkable turnaround in US foreign policy, we must rethink the global order.
read more
The French approach to ‘America First’: Disagreement, but with Dialogue
Ours is a time when even the most Atlanticist countries talk about Europe’s need for strategic autonomy, and when some of its leaders are realizing that “the times when we could fully rely on others are to some extent over,” to use Angela Merkel’s words. So readers may have been surprised when they saw France’s president praise his relationship with his US counterpart, especially with this US president, who was instrumental at convincing Merkel that “we have to fight for our own future ourselves.”
But if Emmanuel Macron is taking great care of his personal relationship with Donald Trump, it does not mean that he dismisses France’s traditional pursuit of independence. Since his election, Macron has been rather consistent with his campaign references to De Gaulle. Beyond the displays of “bromance,” Macron had several occasions in Washington to make his differences clear, and he seized them.
read more
Does India benefit from a closer Transatlantic Alliance?
India’s history with the transatlantic alliance has, for much of its history, been problematic. On one hand, for Indian society at large, the values and lifestyle of the US-Europe compact were aspirational, both in terms of looking up to the West, from an academic standpoint, as an anthropological end goal, as well as the West being a prime destination for economic migration. Politically however, there was a sharp contrast. The rapid industrialisation of agrarian states that socialism seemed to achieve, was seen as desirable in what was and remains a desperately poor country. Being the only democracy that refused to tow a moral line with regards to personal freedoms put India at odds with the US-Europe grouping.
read moreGlobal Perspectives
The future of Russia-China relations
Russia’s policy towards China has been one of adaptation and accommodation. Despite increasing asymmetry in power between the two states, Moscow and Beijing have reinforced cooperation and managed to overcome a number of challenges. At the same time, Russia and China have not transformed their relationship into a fully-fledged alliance.
read more
The Dragon looks to the North: China’s growing role in the Arctic
Due to new economic opportunities offered by the Arctic, many non-Arctic states have become interested in the region. Notably, China has begun to describe itself as a ‘near-Arctic state’ and renamed the series of planned Arctic shipping routes ‘the Polar Silk Road’....
read more
What we’re reading: Brexit lessons, Chinese influence, America’s polarization
Welcome to ‘What we’re reading’ – our new reading list on Atlantic Community. We would like to use this feature to share and highlight interesting, engaging, thought-provoking papers and podcasts on the state of transatlantic relations.
read more
China’s emerging diplomatic and economic presence in North Africa
North Africa matters to China. In strategic terms, it is part of China’s overarching political strategy known as the ‘Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation’. The aim of this self-assigned historic mission is to return China to prosperity and prestige. Its is...
read more
China’s Trojan Herd
Through its “Made in China 2025” industry strategy, China is making great strides to become the global leader in high-tech industries and manufacturing. The initiative was launched in 2015 as part of a government funded effort for Beijing to achieve its goal of surpassing the likes of the US and Germany to dominate global tech and automation by 2049
read more
From Geopolitics to Singularity: Transatlantic Relations in the 21st Century
Let’s be traditional first: The main purpose of the transatlantic relationship in the 21st century will look familiar to those who have studied its history since 1949: To prevent a situation from emerging in which Europeans feel they need to call Moscow first, instead of Washington, in questions of international politics. Add Beijing to the equation, and you get an idea of how daunting the task will be.
Transatlantic relations are the permanent suspension of conventional geopolitics for the purpose of limiting other powers’ influence over a Europe they could otherwise own. Look at the map, and you understand that, based on size, wealth, population and location, it is Russia that should dominate Western and Central Europe. It does not do so because America’s presence and promise of security to Europe creates an artificial barrier that Moscow has been unable to overcome since the end of World War II. With NATO and EU expansion, this barrier has moved eastward by a few hundred kilometers, and this is where, if all goes well, it will remain for some time to come.
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