Blog
Political Risk in North Africa
Transnational Crime in North Africa
Over the past decade, the expanding threats from global jihadism and the sudden escalation of irregular migration in the Mediterranean have galvanized international attention and prompted prioritised support to the security infrastructure and border capacity of the states in the Maghreb. These actions, in response to the dominant threats of terrorists and migrants, have broadly been assumed to also cover the requirements of the region in terms of responding to the subsidiary, yet not inconsiderable, concern of organized crime.
Youth Unemployment: North Africa’s Ticking Time Bomb
“Aish, karama, hurriya” (Bread, dignity, freedom) was one of the most popular slogans during the 2011 rolling protests which became labelled the “Arab Spring”. This
Governing ungoverned spaces: The case of Libya
The collapse of Libya into failed statehood following its 2011 revolution has been a widely lamented and yet largely misunderstood and understudied phenomenon. The general narrative suggests that this failure followed the 2014 civil-war, which ruptured the state, generated parallel administrations, and further fractured Libya’s militia-centric security provisions. The fact that the migration crisis erupted, and the city of Sirte fell to Daesh in 2015 is considered testament to this narrative which has underscored most international attempts to stabilise Libya through reconciling political factions.
Russia 2030
The “2024 Putin transit” and Russia’s political future
The “2024 transit” and the way its resolution plays out will determine just how big the role of Putin himself, but also of alternative elites, institutions beyond the presidency, rank-and-file bureaucrats, political parties, Russian regions, or civil society will be.
Russia’s Foreign Policy – Coping with Overextension and Uncertainty
Nothing in its recent behaviour suggests reasons to be optimistic that Russia’s foreign policy will become more accommodating, less defensive or less aggressive in the next decade or so. Nothing suggests either that any single actor, whether a state or organisation, is in a position to be regarded and heard by the Kremlin as a critical friend and so to sway Russia’s foreign policy.
Russia’s economy until 2030: Falling behind
Russia’s economy is going through a period of long-term stagnation. GDP growth is expected to average close to 1.5 percent over the next number of
Arctic Futures
The Arctic: Stable Governance Amid Melting Ice
Governance of the Arctic region is robust, orderly and sound. There are multiple forums for cooperation. These forums have survived and thrived through conflict and tension. There is no indication that any state might withdraw from any of these forums, or that the future of any institution is in question.
The Arctic: rising temperatures, rising tensions?
According to recent assessments, the Arctic Ocean may be largely ice-free during summers by the late 2030s, if not sooner. The dramatic changes currently taking place in the northern part of the globe may affect interstate relationships and regional security dynamics in a number of ways.
Petroleum Resources of the Arctic Ocean: A Broken Promise?
Over ten years ago, the US Geological Survey estimated that over 22% of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas resources are located in the Arctic, most of it offshore. Since then, there has been a string of reports about the ensuing ‘race’, ‘fight’, and ‘scramble’ for these resources. But the predicted rush for Arctic resources has not begun.
China’s Global Role
Does a deterrent Europe pave the way to war between the US and China?
Near-peer competition, Large Scale Combat Operations, war for global hegemony: America First hits China Above! The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) military and economic rise poses a nascent threat to US global supremacy. But why now?
German-American Relations under the Joe Biden Presidency
It is over. Donald Trump has lost. After four years of chaos, the self-declared saviour of America failed to convince the voters in key states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to grant him another term. Their choice will have a significant impact on German-American relations. President-elect Joe Biden campaigned on nothing less than restoring the soul of the American nation.The new administration faces a raging pandemic and a troubled economy, much like the rest of the world. Nevertheless, Biden’s foreign policy will be substantially different from Trump’s. After years of troubled relations with one of America’s most important allies, Biden will have to try to re-engage with Germany. Berlin ought to be prepared.
Beijing’s Perspective on the EU’s new China policy
In the past few months, the European Union (EU) has pursued a noticeable transition in its China policy, suggesting that Europe is taking an increasingly critical stance on China. In March 2019, a ten-point plan published by the European Commission explicitly described China as “an economic competitor in pursuit of technological leadership and a systemic rival promoting alternative models of governance”. Calling China a “strategic competitor” reflects the EU’s growing concerns of rising competition with China. Moreover, it institutionalizes the reoccurring criticism over the lack of reciprocity of market access for European companies in China. The EU has also raised security concerns over foreign direct investment (FDI) from Chinese state-owned enterprises and technology companies.
Community
German-American Relations under the Joe Biden Presidency
It is over. Donald Trump has lost. After four years of chaos, the self-declared saviour of America failed to convince the voters in key states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to grant him another term. Their choice will have a significant impact on German-American relations. President-elect Joe Biden campaigned on nothing less than restoring the soul of the American nation.The new administration faces a raging pandemic and a troubled economy, much like the rest of the world. Nevertheless, Biden’s foreign policy will be substantially different from Trump’s. After years of troubled relations with one of America’s most important allies, Biden will have to try to re-engage with Germany. Berlin ought to be prepared.
Deutschland und die USA: Was wollen die Deutschen?
November 2020, US-Präsidentschaftswahlen. Die ganze Welt blickt auf die USA, so auch wir in Deutschland. „Wie geht es weiter mit der atlantischen Gemeinschaft?“, fragen sich einige. Für viele ist klar, dass es nur besser werden kann, wenn Trump aus dem Amt gewählt wird. Zu lange, so denken viele, wurde im Weißen Haus gelogen, betrogen und respektlos mit der Welt – einschließlich Amerikas Partnern – umgegangen. Unzählige Zeitungen malen sich aus, wie die USA bis 2024 wohl aussehen würden. In den Projektionen schwingt eine klare Nachricht mit: Wir erwarten mehr von den USA. Viele in Deutschland sind enttäuscht von einem Land, das aber gleichzeitig noch immer viele Sehnsüchte zu wecken scheint. Da stellt sich die Frage, was wir eigentlich von den USA wollen?
What we’re reading: Leadership Changes, Chinese Challenges, Transatlantic Perspectives
Welcome to a new edition of our reading list. This month, we look at leadership changes in Ukraine, Austria, India and the UK, European strategic autonomy, the latest in transatlantic relations and new insights in global development.
European Security and Brexit
Scottish Independence and the (dis)United Kingdom – Johnson’s Challenge and the Impact of the Biden Administration
Since the United Kingdom officially left the EU, the Scottish independence movement has as much momentum as it has ever had before. As such, the
EU Strategic Partnerships: A model for future EU-UK relations?
Assuming the UK and EU stick to their respective red lines on sovereignty and autonomy, a future security partnership is likely to be modeled technically on ones the EU already has. In this case, even an EU-UK security partnership unprecedented in ambition will fall well short of the cooperation reserved for EU members—at a time when that cooperation is becoming more consequential in the global arena.
EU-UK Security Cooperation after Brexit: Towards a ‘Special Dialogue Framework’?
“Europe is not an actor in international affairs, and does not seem likely to become one” were the opening words of a 1982 article by
Security
German-American Relations under the Joe Biden Presidency
It is over. Donald Trump has lost. After four years of chaos, the self-declared saviour of America failed to convince the voters in key states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to grant him another term. Their choice will have a significant impact on German-American relations. President-elect Joe Biden campaigned on nothing less than restoring the soul of the American nation.The new administration faces a raging pandemic and a troubled economy, much like the rest of the world. Nevertheless, Biden’s foreign policy will be substantially different from Trump’s. After years of troubled relations with one of America’s most important allies, Biden will have to try to re-engage with Germany. Berlin ought to be prepared.
In The Beginning Was The Word: The Importance Of Discourse For German Security Policy
Recent calls from German policymakers and think-tankers for a public security policy debate indicate the importance of discourse for security policy. However, this is only the tip of the iceberg. Discourse – or how we talk about things – exerts significant power over security policy decision-making; setting the framework for how we define good and evil, identify threats, and which policy options are legitimate (or even thinkable) means of confronting them. Just how powerful discourse can be is demonstrated by Dr. Frank Stengel’s latest analysis on ideational change in German security policy. The concise, well-structured work introduces a novel analytical approach, combining post-structuralist, feminist and post-colonial discourse theory, providing much needed insights into Germany’s often contradictory relationship with the use of military force.
Why Belarus Matters
It took dramatic events for Belarus, one of the least-known among European countries, to draw international attention. For some three weeks now, the country has
Economy
German-American Relations under the Joe Biden Presidency
It is over. Donald Trump has lost. After four years of chaos, the self-declared saviour of America failed to convince the voters in key states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to grant him another term. Their choice will have a significant impact on German-American relations. President-elect Joe Biden campaigned on nothing less than restoring the soul of the American nation.The new administration faces a raging pandemic and a troubled economy, much like the rest of the world. Nevertheless, Biden’s foreign policy will be substantially different from Trump’s. After years of troubled relations with one of America’s most important allies, Biden will have to try to re-engage with Germany. Berlin ought to be prepared.
Healing the WTO: Cure or Amputate the Appellate Body?
The World Trade Organization (WTO) currently faces the biggest crisis since its inception in 1995. Events that appear as bureaucratic chess games threaten to risk the business rules of major trading nations around the globe. On 11 December, the Appellate Body, the committee dealing with WTO members’ appeals became incapacitated after its membership dropped from three – the minimum to take decisions on cases – to only one remaining adjudicator. New appointments have been blocked by the United States since June 2017. This effectively shuts down the body, because the minimum requirement for any decision is three judges. In a recent move, the U.S. government has placed a veto on any funding for the Appellate Body’s secretariat in Geneva, meaning that it will have to stop operating at the beginning of 2020.
Russia’s economy until 2030: Falling behind
Russia’s economy is going through a period of long-term stagnation. GDP growth is expected to average close to 1.5 percent over the next number of
Global Perspectives
Germany’s Role in Nation Building in Afghanistan: A critical Transatlantic Debate
The fall of Kabul shortly before the 20th anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks, marked the end of NATO’s military deployment in Afghanistan. But why
Scottish Independence and the (dis)United Kingdom – Johnson’s Challenge and the Impact of the Biden Administration
Since the United Kingdom officially left the EU, the Scottish independence movement has as much momentum as it has ever had before. As such, the
German-American Relations under the Joe Biden Presidency
It is over. Donald Trump has lost. After four years of chaos, the self-declared saviour of America failed to convince the voters in key states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to grant him another term. Their choice will have a significant impact on German-American relations. President-elect Joe Biden campaigned on nothing less than restoring the soul of the American nation.The new administration faces a raging pandemic and a troubled economy, much like the rest of the world. Nevertheless, Biden’s foreign policy will be substantially different from Trump’s. After years of troubled relations with one of America’s most important allies, Biden will have to try to re-engage with Germany. Berlin ought to be prepared.