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Political Risk in North Africa
Transnational Crime in North Africa
Over the past decade, the expanding threats from global jihadism and the sudden escalation of irregular migration in the Mediterranean have galvanized international attention and prompted prioritised support to the security infrastructure and border capacity of the states in the Maghreb. These actions, in response to the dominant threats of terrorists and migrants, have broadly been assumed to also cover the requirements of the region in terms of responding to the subsidiary, yet not inconsiderable, concern of organized crime.
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Youth Unemployment: North Africa’s Ticking Time Bomb
“Aish, karama, hurriya” (Bread, dignity, freedom) was one of the most popular slogans during the 2011 rolling protests which became labelled the “Arab Spring”. This simple hymn, with its colloquial variations, captures the socio-economic character of the protests and...
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Governing ungoverned spaces: The case of Libya
The collapse of Libya into failed statehood following its 2011 revolution has been a widely lamented and yet largely misunderstood and understudied phenomenon. The general narrative suggests that this failure followed the 2014 civil-war, which ruptured the state, generated parallel administrations, and further fractured Libya’s militia-centric security provisions. The fact that the migration crisis erupted, and the city of Sirte fell to Daesh in 2015 is considered testament to this narrative which has underscored most international attempts to stabilise Libya through reconciling political factions.
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The Brewing Storm: Climate Security Risks in a Fast-Warming North Africa
North Africa is by most measures already an exceedingly hostile environment. It has relatively little arable land, next to no rainfall beyond the narrow coastal strip, and extreme temperature highs, which regularly top 45°C. Such is the region’s stark aridity that one can travel from the Nile river to the Atlantic Ocean, some 4000km (2500 miles), without stumbling on a single surface water source. These natural challenges have long posed considerable governance difficulties for regional states, who have struggled to bring development or prosperity to their poor, unsettled desert interiors. That failure has contributed to much of the Sahara’s emergence as a lawless node of discontent and instability.
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Energy in North Africa: Challenges and Opportunities
North Africa represents one of the most important oil and gas producing regions in the world, and has the potential to be a renewable energy powerhouse as well. Its geographic situation makes it a crossroads between Europe, Africa and the Middle East, and an important transit corridor for global energy markets. Today, North African countries face a range of pressing socio-economic challenges, including solving the problems of poverty and high levels of structural unemployment, in the context of fast demographic growth. Energy is an essential commodity enabling socio-economic development. The current energy situation in the countries is characterized by a rapid increase of energy demand, low energy efficiency and low domestic energy prices due to extensive and universal consumption subsidies.
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Jihadi groups in North Africa: Spotlight on Algeria and Egypt
North Africa has traditionally been a region in which Al-Qaeda, particularly its regional franchise, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), has been dominant. However, the rise of Islamic State (IS) caused deep divisions within Al-Qaeda affiliated groups, as well...
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China’s emerging diplomatic and economic presence in North Africa
North Africa matters to China. In strategic terms, it is part of China’s overarching political strategy known as the ‘Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation’. The aim of this self-assigned historic mission is to return China to prosperity and prestige. Its is...
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Russia’s growing influence in North Africa
While Moscow’s Syria intervention has captured much of the world’s attention, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s vision in the region always spanned beyond Syria alone. Since coming to power, Putin prioritized restoration of Russia’s image as a great power. This goal...
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Troubled waters ahead: The restless Maghreb
2019 is a big year for politics in the Maghreb. In April, Algeria is due to vote on whether to return President Bouteflika for a fifth mandate with few doubting the results, but on Friday 22 February, large protests broke out in cities all across Algeria in opposition...
read moreRussia 2030
The “2024 Putin transit” and Russia’s political future
The “2024 transit” and the way its resolution plays out will determine just how big the role of Putin himself, but also of alternative elites, institutions beyond the presidency, rank-and-file bureaucrats, political parties, Russian regions, or civil society will be.
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Russia’s Foreign Policy – Coping with Overextension and Uncertainty
Nothing in its recent behaviour suggests reasons to be optimistic that Russia’s foreign policy will become more accommodating, less defensive or less aggressive in the next decade or so. Nothing suggests either that any single actor, whether a state or organisation, is in a position to be regarded and heard by the Kremlin as a critical friend and so to sway Russia’s foreign policy.
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Russia’s economy until 2030: Falling behind
Russia’s economy is going through a period of long-term stagnation. GDP growth is expected to average close to 1.5 percent over the next number of years, which is low considering Russia’s level of economic development (International Monetary Fund, World Bank). Year by...
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The future of Russia-China relations
Russia’s policy towards China has been one of adaptation and accommodation. Despite increasing asymmetry in power between the two states, Moscow and Beijing have reinforced cooperation and managed to overcome a number of challenges. At the same time, Russia and China have not transformed their relationship into a fully-fledged alliance.
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The Future of the Arctic is Russian. Or is It?
One look at the map of the Arctic allows us to understand why the region is strategically important to Russia. In control of nearly half of the latitudinal circle, vast natural resources and militarily critical parts of the region, Moscow has both high stakes and a unique position to influence the regional developments.
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The uncertain future of Russia’s domestic politics
Something seems to be happening in Russian society. Despite the small size of protests compared to the whole of the population, their societal and political resonance has become stronger than before. Citizens appear to be more determined to protest. And it seems that only Putinʼs interventions can calm down those regularly erupting grievances.
read moreArctic Futures
The Arctic: Stable Governance Amid Melting Ice
Governance of the Arctic region is robust, orderly and sound. There are multiple forums for cooperation. These forums have survived and thrived through conflict and tension. There is no indication that any state might withdraw from any of these forums, or that the future of any institution is in question.
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The Arctic: rising temperatures, rising tensions?
According to recent assessments, the Arctic Ocean may be largely ice-free during summers by the late 2030s, if not sooner. The dramatic changes currently taking place in the northern part of the globe may affect interstate relationships and regional security dynamics in a number of ways.
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Petroleum Resources of the Arctic Ocean: A Broken Promise?
Over ten years ago, the US Geological Survey estimated that over 22% of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas resources are located in the Arctic, most of it offshore. Since then, there has been a string of reports about the ensuing ‘race’, ‘fight’, and ‘scramble’ for these resources. But the predicted rush for Arctic resources has not begun.
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The Future of the Arctic is Russian. Or is It?
One look at the map of the Arctic allows us to understand why the region is strategically important to Russia. In control of nearly half of the latitudinal circle, vast natural resources and militarily critical parts of the region, Moscow has both high stakes and a unique position to influence the regional developments.
read more
The Dragon looks to the North: China’s growing role in the Arctic
Due to new economic opportunities offered by the Arctic, many non-Arctic states have become interested in the region. Notably, China has begun to describe itself as a ‘near-Arctic state’ and renamed the series of planned Arctic shipping routes ‘the Polar Silk Road’....
read moreChina’s Global Role
Does a deterrent Europe pave the way to war between the US and China?
Near-peer competition, Large Scale Combat Operations, war for global hegemony: America First hits China Above! The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) military and economic rise poses a nascent threat to US global supremacy. But why now?
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German-American Relations under the Joe Biden Presidency
It is over. Donald Trump has lost. After four years of chaos, the self-declared saviour of America failed to convince the voters in key states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to grant him another term. Their choice will have a significant impact on German-American relations. President-elect Joe Biden campaigned on nothing less than restoring the soul of the American nation.The new administration faces a raging pandemic and a troubled economy, much like the rest of the world. Nevertheless, Biden’s foreign policy will be substantially different from Trump’s. After years of troubled relations with one of America’s most important allies, Biden will have to try to re-engage with Germany. Berlin ought to be prepared.
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Beijing’s Perspective on the EU’s new China policy
In the past few months, the European Union (EU) has pursued a noticeable transition in its China policy, suggesting that Europe is taking an increasingly critical stance on China. In March 2019, a ten-point plan published by the European Commission explicitly described China as “an economic competitor in pursuit of technological leadership and a systemic rival promoting alternative models of governance”. Calling China a “strategic competitor” reflects the EU’s growing concerns of rising competition with China. Moreover, it institutionalizes the reoccurring criticism over the lack of reciprocity of market access for European companies in China. The EU has also raised security concerns over foreign direct investment (FDI) from Chinese state-owned enterprises and technology companies.
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The future of Russia-China relations
Russia’s policy towards China has been one of adaptation and accommodation. Despite increasing asymmetry in power between the two states, Moscow and Beijing have reinforced cooperation and managed to overcome a number of challenges. At the same time, Russia and China have not transformed their relationship into a fully-fledged alliance.
read more
The Dragon looks to the North: China’s growing role in the Arctic
Due to new economic opportunities offered by the Arctic, many non-Arctic states have become interested in the region. Notably, China has begun to describe itself as a ‘near-Arctic state’ and renamed the series of planned Arctic shipping routes ‘the Polar Silk Road’....
read more
What we’re reading: Brexit lessons, Chinese influence, America’s polarization
Welcome to ‘What we’re reading’ – our new reading list on Atlantic Community. We would like to use this feature to share and highlight interesting, engaging, thought-provoking papers and podcasts on the state of transatlantic relations.
read moreCommunity
German-American Relations under the Joe Biden Presidency
It is over. Donald Trump has lost. After four years of chaos, the self-declared saviour of America failed to convince the voters in key states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to grant him another term. Their choice will have a significant impact on German-American relations. President-elect Joe Biden campaigned on nothing less than restoring the soul of the American nation.The new administration faces a raging pandemic and a troubled economy, much like the rest of the world. Nevertheless, Biden’s foreign policy will be substantially different from Trump’s. After years of troubled relations with one of America’s most important allies, Biden will have to try to re-engage with Germany. Berlin ought to be prepared.
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Deutschland und die USA: Was wollen die Deutschen?
November 2020, US-Präsidentschaftswahlen. Die ganze Welt blickt auf die USA, so auch wir in Deutschland. „Wie geht es weiter mit der atlantischen Gemeinschaft?“, fragen sich einige. Für viele ist klar, dass es nur besser werden kann, wenn Trump aus dem Amt gewählt wird. Zu lange, so denken viele, wurde im Weißen Haus gelogen, betrogen und respektlos mit der Welt – einschließlich Amerikas Partnern – umgegangen. Unzählige Zeitungen malen sich aus, wie die USA bis 2024 wohl aussehen würden. In den Projektionen schwingt eine klare Nachricht mit: Wir erwarten mehr von den USA. Viele in Deutschland sind enttäuscht von einem Land, das aber gleichzeitig noch immer viele Sehnsüchte zu wecken scheint. Da stellt sich die Frage, was wir eigentlich von den USA wollen?
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What we’re reading: Leadership Changes, Chinese Challenges, Transatlantic Perspectives
Welcome to a new edition of our reading list. This month, we look at leadership changes in Ukraine, Austria, India and the UK, European strategic autonomy, the latest in transatlantic relations and new insights in global development.
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What we’re reading: NATO at 70, Global Trends, Climate Change
This month, we look at what think tanks think about NATO at 70 and what they see as the big Global Trends shaping international politics. We hope you will enjoy our selection. Feel free to suggest your favourite reads via Twitter or Facebook.
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What we’re reading: Brexit lessons, Chinese influence, America’s polarization
Welcome to ‘What we’re reading’ – our new reading list on Atlantic Community. We would like to use this feature to share and highlight interesting, engaging, thought-provoking papers and podcasts on the state of transatlantic relations.
read more
2018 In Review: A Letter from Our Editorial Team
The debates around the Atlantic Community in 2018 showed us that something is changing in transatlantic relations. This becomes obvious when reflecting on the thoughts of our contributors on how the developments in transatlantic relations have impacted their own countries and areas of expertise. From Washington to Berlin, from London to Tokyo, our contributors have given us their analyses, thoughts, fears, and hopes for the state of transatlantic relations this past year and prepare us for what lies ahead in 2019.
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“Led Into the Fork”: The Importance of Close Transatlantic Relations in Estonia
“Led into the fork” is an expression in Estonia that indicates a very difficult, if not an almost inescapable situation. The potential disintegration of the Atlantic community is a “fork” situation for Estonia. Therefore a united and cooperative transatlantic...
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What Is The Atlantic Community For And Do We Still Need It?
The liberal democratic values upon which the Atlantic community has been built and prospering since the end of the Second World War seem to be in retreat. The US, previously the foremost champion of the liberal world order, shows protectionist and even isolationist...
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The State of Transatlantic Affairs in the Era of Trump
A lot has been – and will be – said about the current state of Transatlantic relations, not as if we haven’t experienced a similar divide after the Iraqi invasion of 2003. One of my mentors once said, Europe loves to hate Republican presidents, and if we look at the...
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Why Franco-German Defence Cooperation Is Difficult, But Without Alternative
Since the 1963 Elysee Treaty and the ensuing reconciliation process between hereditary enemies – Europe’s 20th century geopolitical miracle – France and Germany have been the driving force in European integration. Since the inception of this process, defence has been on the agenda. On paper, everything is always great in Franco-German relations, both bilaterally and in a larger European context. But when it comes to defence, Franco-German relations prove to be rather complicated.
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Brexit and Defence Negotiations
In the enthusiasm about the EU’s numerous new defence initiatives in Germany, a discussion of the consequences of Britain’s withdrawal from the union is often curiously absent. Close alignment between post-Brexit Britain and the EU27 in the...
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Trumping Transatlantic Relations
President Trump’s last international trip to the G7 Summit resulted in the worst meeting of its kind since its inception, given his outburst at America’s usual allies, and was compounded by the contrast a day later with his cordial meeting with North Korea’s Kim Jung Un in Singapore. Many Transatlanticists were prepared for the worst as Trump made his way to NATO and the UK before seeing Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki. The good news, is that the NATO summit went better than expected, though many commentators still called it the worst in history. The bad news, however, is that despite lowered expectations, damage was still done to transatlantic relations. The question now is: how severe and long-lasting will this damage be?
read moreEuropean Security and Brexit
Scottish Independence and the (dis)United Kingdom – Johnson’s Challenge and the Impact of the Biden Administration
Since the United Kingdom officially left the EU, the Scottish independence movement has as much momentum as it has ever had before. As such, the UK government faces an existential crisis in maintaining the integrity of the union. This article outlines the impact a...
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EU Strategic Partnerships: A model for future EU-UK relations?
Assuming the UK and EU stick to their respective red lines on sovereignty and autonomy, a future security partnership is likely to be modeled technically on ones the EU already has. In this case, even an EU-UK security partnership unprecedented in ambition will fall well short of the cooperation reserved for EU members—at a time when that cooperation is becoming more consequential in the global arena.
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EU-UK Security Cooperation after Brexit: Towards a ‘Special Dialogue Framework’?
“Europe is not an actor in international affairs, and does not seem likely to become one” were the opening words of a 1982 article by Hedley Bull, a prominent member of the English School of International Relations. Almost forty years later, things look quite...
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Why Brexit is about security
Security does and will continue to play a role in the Brexit negotiations. The main risk is that an acrimonious divorce could sour discussions to develop a strong and comprehensive EU-UK security partnership. It is in both the British and the European interest that this does not occur.
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Strategic autonomy and European security after Brexit
Although EU strategic autonomy and European strategic autonomy are different issues, one is likely the condition for the other, and vice versa. From outside the European Union, the United Kingdom would have a strong case to make that European strategic autonomy is a prerequisite of European security, and indeed a necessary precondition of EU strategic autonomy.
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Britain and European Defence: New opportunities after Brexit?
Britain is leaving the EU just as the EU is getting serious about defence cooperation; indeed, the fact that it’s getting serious about defence cooperation is linked to the departure of Britain, which consistently opposed such steps. With the UK out of the picture, the remaining EU members can integrate their defence at liberty. That leaves the UK the sole outsider, a loser as European allies form the closer union that’s necessary in order to maximise the region’s collective might.
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UK and Germany: Why the “quiet alliance” should not stay silent on European defence
Since the 1980s, British-German cooperation was referred to by observers in both London and Bonn (later Berlin), as the ‘quiet alliance’ (stille Allianz). A partnership that was running smoothly without seeking or receiving undue attention. Within the triangle of...
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Europe’s defence industry after Brexit: What role for Britain?
. While London certainly has to end the uncertainty over its exit and avoid a no-deal outcome, from the EU side, Brussels should resist impatience, move beyond bureaucratic technicalities and think of Brexit and its impact on European defence and security as a strategic issue. Ultimately, ensuring continuous cooperation is in the interest of both sides.
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The EU and Britain in the Western Balkans: Sustaining Cooperation after Brexit
The Western Balkans, might be right in the European Union’s backyard, however the region is geographically remote from the UK, and could become a testing ground for continued cooperation in foreign and security policy as a result. Since their interests are fundamentally aligned the EU-27 and the UK should be able to speak with one voice.
read moreSecurity
German-American Relations under the Joe Biden Presidency
It is over. Donald Trump has lost. After four years of chaos, the self-declared saviour of America failed to convince the voters in key states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to grant him another term. Their choice will have a significant impact on German-American relations. President-elect Joe Biden campaigned on nothing less than restoring the soul of the American nation.The new administration faces a raging pandemic and a troubled economy, much like the rest of the world. Nevertheless, Biden’s foreign policy will be substantially different from Trump’s. After years of troubled relations with one of America’s most important allies, Biden will have to try to re-engage with Germany. Berlin ought to be prepared.
read more
In The Beginning Was The Word: The Importance Of Discourse For German Security Policy
Recent calls from German policymakers and think-tankers for a public security policy debate indicate the importance of discourse for security policy. However, this is only the tip of the iceberg. Discourse – or how we talk about things – exerts significant power over security policy decision-making; setting the framework for how we define good and evil, identify threats, and which policy options are legitimate (or even thinkable) means of confronting them. Just how powerful discourse can be is demonstrated by Dr. Frank Stengel’s latest analysis on ideational change in German security policy. The concise, well-structured work introduces a novel analytical approach, combining post-structuralist, feminist and post-colonial discourse theory, providing much needed insights into Germany’s often contradictory relationship with the use of military force.
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Why Belarus Matters
It took dramatic events for Belarus, one of the least-known among European countries, to draw international attention. For some three weeks now, the country has seen a standoff between the dictatorial regime of Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Belarusian society, determined...
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Western Balkans in the EU: Timing Matters
Amid general pessimism caused by covid-19 crisis, the last few days brought some good news for the Western Balkans, as the European Union (EU) green-lighted the launch of accession talks with Albania and North Macedonia. The long awaited and overdue decision is an indisputable step towards fulfilling the EU aspirations of the Western Balkans, a decision that will definitely inject some optimism in the region. On the other side, such decision heralds the fact that the EU can take strategic decisions, even in the midst of a big crisis, although it did not set a date for the formal start of negotiations, and adds additional conditions for Albania. Another positive signal for the entire region, was the raising of the North Macedonian flag in front of NATO´s Headquarters in Brussels, officially becoming the 30th member of the Alliance. It rewarded the success of the historic Prespa Agreement that solved the 27-year-old name dispute between Athens and Skopje, an example of demonstrated political courage in the region.
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Same-Same but different: The Evolving Qualitative Arms Race
During the Cold War, an ever-increasing quantity of nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles determined the strategic parameters of international security. In the 30 years since then, the global nuclear stockpiles have been reduced gradually. This process has, at least for the time being, come to an end with the New START treaty on deployed strategic nuclear weapons. It was signed by the US and Russia in April 2010. Despite its overall success, the prospects for further (nuclear) disarmament are bleak. Instead, we are witnessing an evolving arms race that will, however, differ significantly from the Cold War tradition. Two main issues drive this process.
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Transatlantic cooperation is the key to European energy security
Europe’s economic, geopolitical, and climate objectives converge in the current debate over EU energy policy. This was most recently on display at the European Parliament hearing of the Energy Commissioner-designate Kadri Simson on 3 October, during which she...
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What We Are Watching: “Is NATO Really Worth It?” – A insightfull contribution from LTG Ben Hodges on Transatlantic Relations
On the occasion of the 70th anniversary of NATO, Ben Hodges, together with CEPA, developed a series of videos dealing with transatlantic relations. The Atlantic Community is happy to share these remarkable episodes. Watch the first part "Is Nato really worth...
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Towards convergence in European arms export policies: How to overcome the Franco-German stalemate?
As evidenced by a growing number of comments, such as the ones by the Centre for European Reform and the Group for Research and Information on Peace and Security, the latest initiatives in European defence reopen discussions for European harmonisation in the field of arms export controls.
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The INF Treaty is Dead. Long Live the Arms Race.
On August 2, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty between the United States and Russia officially collapsed, freeing the world’s two largest nuclear hoarders to develop weapons once banned by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev. Less than three weeks later, with the corpse of the Treaty still cooling, the United States launched a new ground-based cruise missile off the coast of Los Angeles with a range previously prohibited by the defunct agreement.
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NATO at 70: Staying Transatlantic – Becoming More European
The times we are living in are characterised, to a far greater extent than the Cold War era, by immense strategic uncertainty and unpredictable events. In such dangerous and tumultuous times, we need institutions like NATO more than ever. The Alliance binds nations together on the basis of shared values.
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EU-UK Security Cooperation after Brexit: Towards a ‘Special Dialogue Framework’?
“Europe is not an actor in international affairs, and does not seem likely to become one” were the opening words of a 1982 article by Hedley Bull, a prominent member of the English School of International Relations. Almost forty years later, things look quite...
read more
Transnational Crime in North Africa
Over the past decade, the expanding threats from global jihadism and the sudden escalation of irregular migration in the Mediterranean have galvanized international attention and prompted prioritised support to the security infrastructure and border capacity of the states in the Maghreb. These actions, in response to the dominant threats of terrorists and migrants, have broadly been assumed to also cover the requirements of the region in terms of responding to the subsidiary, yet not inconsiderable, concern of organized crime.
read moreEconomy
German-American Relations under the Joe Biden Presidency
It is over. Donald Trump has lost. After four years of chaos, the self-declared saviour of America failed to convince the voters in key states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to grant him another term. Their choice will have a significant impact on German-American relations. President-elect Joe Biden campaigned on nothing less than restoring the soul of the American nation.The new administration faces a raging pandemic and a troubled economy, much like the rest of the world. Nevertheless, Biden’s foreign policy will be substantially different from Trump’s. After years of troubled relations with one of America’s most important allies, Biden will have to try to re-engage with Germany. Berlin ought to be prepared.
read more
Healing the WTO: Cure or Amputate the Appellate Body?
The World Trade Organization (WTO) currently faces the biggest crisis since its inception in 1995. Events that appear as bureaucratic chess games threaten to risk the business rules of major trading nations around the globe. On 11 December, the Appellate Body, the committee dealing with WTO members’ appeals became incapacitated after its membership dropped from three – the minimum to take decisions on cases – to only one remaining adjudicator. New appointments have been blocked by the United States since June 2017. This effectively shuts down the body, because the minimum requirement for any decision is three judges. In a recent move, the U.S. government has placed a veto on any funding for the Appellate Body’s secretariat in Geneva, meaning that it will have to stop operating at the beginning of 2020.
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Russia’s economy until 2030: Falling behind
Russia’s economy is going through a period of long-term stagnation. GDP growth is expected to average close to 1.5 percent over the next number of years, which is low considering Russia’s level of economic development (International Monetary Fund, World Bank). Year by...
read more
Youth Unemployment: North Africa’s Ticking Time Bomb
“Aish, karama, hurriya” (Bread, dignity, freedom) was one of the most popular slogans during the 2011 rolling protests which became labelled the “Arab Spring”. This simple hymn, with its colloquial variations, captures the socio-economic character of the protests and...
read more
Europe’s defence industry after Brexit: What role for Britain?
. While London certainly has to end the uncertainty over its exit and avoid a no-deal outcome, from the EU side, Brussels should resist impatience, move beyond bureaucratic technicalities and think of Brexit and its impact on European defence and security as a strategic issue. Ultimately, ensuring continuous cooperation is in the interest of both sides.
read more
China’s emerging diplomatic and economic presence in North Africa
North Africa matters to China. In strategic terms, it is part of China’s overarching political strategy known as the ‘Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation’. The aim of this self-assigned historic mission is to return China to prosperity and prestige. Its is...
read more
Troubled waters ahead: The restless Maghreb
2019 is a big year for politics in the Maghreb. In April, Algeria is due to vote on whether to return President Bouteflika for a fifth mandate with few doubting the results, but on Friday 22 February, large protests broke out in cities all across Algeria in opposition...
read more
China’s Trojan Herd
Through its “Made in China 2025” industry strategy, China is making great strides to become the global leader in high-tech industries and manufacturing. The initiative was launched in 2015 as part of a government funded effort for Beijing to achieve its goal of surpassing the likes of the US and Germany to dominate global tech and automation by 2049
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Urgent Need for Renegotiation
The WTO has succeeded to globally promote free trade and to economically integrate developing countries over the last 25 years. As a consequence, the WTO was probably the most successful approach in fighting global poverty in history. With the US as guarantor for a multilateral ruled-based trade order, the triumph of free trade and market economy seemed irreversible until recently. However, the US has apparently become sick of its role as ‘benevolent dictator’—not only in free trade but also in security aspects—and thus, it increasingly challenges what it has proclaimed for decades. In the light of this remarkable turnaround in US foreign policy, we must rethink the global order.
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The French approach to ‘America First’: Disagreement, but with Dialogue
Ours is a time when even the most Atlanticist countries talk about Europe’s need for strategic autonomy, and when some of its leaders are realizing that “the times when we could fully rely on others are to some extent over,” to use Angela Merkel’s words. So readers may have been surprised when they saw France’s president praise his relationship with his US counterpart, especially with this US president, who was instrumental at convincing Merkel that “we have to fight for our own future ourselves.”
But if Emmanuel Macron is taking great care of his personal relationship with Donald Trump, it does not mean that he dismisses France’s traditional pursuit of independence. Since his election, Macron has been rather consistent with his campaign references to De Gaulle. Beyond the displays of “bromance,” Macron had several occasions in Washington to make his differences clear, and he seized them.
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Does India benefit from a closer Transatlantic Alliance?
India’s history with the transatlantic alliance has, for much of its history, been problematic. On one hand, for Indian society at large, the values and lifestyle of the US-Europe compact were aspirational, both in terms of looking up to the West, from an academic standpoint, as an anthropological end goal, as well as the West being a prime destination for economic migration. Politically however, there was a sharp contrast. The rapid industrialisation of agrarian states that socialism seemed to achieve, was seen as desirable in what was and remains a desperately poor country. Being the only democracy that refused to tow a moral line with regards to personal freedoms put India at odds with the US-Europe grouping.
read moreGlobal Perspectives
Does a deterrent Europe pave the way to war between the US and China?
Near-peer competition, Large Scale Combat Operations, war for global hegemony: America First hits China Above! The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) military and economic rise poses a nascent threat to US global supremacy. But why now?
read more
German-American Relations under the Joe Biden Presidency
It is over. Donald Trump has lost. After four years of chaos, the self-declared saviour of America failed to convince the voters in key states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to grant him another term. Their choice will have a significant impact on German-American relations. President-elect Joe Biden campaigned on nothing less than restoring the soul of the American nation.The new administration faces a raging pandemic and a troubled economy, much like the rest of the world. Nevertheless, Biden’s foreign policy will be substantially different from Trump’s. After years of troubled relations with one of America’s most important allies, Biden will have to try to re-engage with Germany. Berlin ought to be prepared.
read more
Beijing’s Perspective on the EU’s new China policy
In the past few months, the European Union (EU) has pursued a noticeable transition in its China policy, suggesting that Europe is taking an increasingly critical stance on China. In March 2019, a ten-point plan published by the European Commission explicitly described China as “an economic competitor in pursuit of technological leadership and a systemic rival promoting alternative models of governance”. Calling China a “strategic competitor” reflects the EU’s growing concerns of rising competition with China. Moreover, it institutionalizes the reoccurring criticism over the lack of reciprocity of market access for European companies in China. The EU has also raised security concerns over foreign direct investment (FDI) from Chinese state-owned enterprises and technology companies.
read more
The future of Russia-China relations
Russia’s policy towards China has been one of adaptation and accommodation. Despite increasing asymmetry in power between the two states, Moscow and Beijing have reinforced cooperation and managed to overcome a number of challenges. At the same time, Russia and China have not transformed their relationship into a fully-fledged alliance.
read more
The Dragon looks to the North: China’s growing role in the Arctic
Due to new economic opportunities offered by the Arctic, many non-Arctic states have become interested in the region. Notably, China has begun to describe itself as a ‘near-Arctic state’ and renamed the series of planned Arctic shipping routes ‘the Polar Silk Road’....
read more
What we’re reading: Brexit lessons, Chinese influence, America’s polarization
Welcome to ‘What we’re reading’ – our new reading list on Atlantic Community. We would like to use this feature to share and highlight interesting, engaging, thought-provoking papers and podcasts on the state of transatlantic relations.
read moreOur Blog
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